west asia north africa unrest template
DESCRIPTION
Describes the decision analysis that WANA (West Asia-North Africa) rulers face when facing calls for reformsTRANSCRIPT
Allow
Reforms
Stability
Instability
New demands
Peaceful
New Demands
Violence
External Support
External Support
No External Support
No External Support
DecisionUncertainties
Probability Outcomes
50
50
50
50
50
50
25
75
25
75
Suppress
Protests
Violence
Rebellion
Non Violent
Civil Disobedience
External Support
External Support
No External Support
No External Support
Stability
Instability
50
50
50
50
75
25
25
75
25
3
9
9
3
9 *
3
9
3
25
Good. No RC
Stalemate
Acceptable
UN SanctionsNo RC
Acceptable
Good
UN NFZ &Regime Change
UN SanctionsNo RC
Regime Change
UN SanctionsNo RC
Non-West supported protests(Al Q or MB etc)
* Bad decision path to be avoided to prevent Regime Change
Chart describes Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Myanmar, color revolutions
West supported Protests Color Revolutions
Probabilities Notional