““West vs. NorthWest vs. North”” or or ““West & West & NorthNorth””::

A Geopolitical TrilemmaA Geopolitical Trilemma for Armeniafor Armenia’’s society?s society?

PhD in Political Science, Associate ProfessorPhD in Political Science, Associate Professor

Narek S. GalstyanNarek S. Galstyan

Sources/Abbreviations

• World Value Survey (WVS) - 2011, • Caucasus Barometer (CB) - 2009-2013, • EU Neighbourhood Barometer (EU NB) - 2014, • EDB Integration Barometer (IB) - 2014, • (Yerevan) Barometer (YB) - 2014-2015• “Integration and Development” NGO (ID) - 2013

Indexes of “Geopolitical Attraction”

EDB EDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

EDB EDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

EDB EDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

EDB EDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

CB -2013, ID NGO – 2013, CB -2013, ID NGO – 2013, EDB EDB IB IB – 201– 2014, YB - 20144, YB - 2014

ID NGO - 2013

Awareness & TrustAwareness & Trust

CB - 2009 & ID NGO (2013)

CB - 2009

WVS - 2011

CB 2013 & EU NB 2014

Support of membership

CB – 2013, ID 2013

CB - 2009

EDB EDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

YB 2014

Conclusions

1. Armenia has an average cumulative geopolitical orientation to the post-Soviet space. But this space is more attractive than European and other countries.

2. The political cluster is a dominant factor of orientation. The overall economic orientation directs also to the post-Soviet space. But in this case, the Post-Soviet and European indexes are not so different. Cultural orientation indexes are also close, and in this case, the European orientation dominates. However, Armenia and Ukraine are the most cultural self-sufficient countries.

3. Russia is the only "center of gravity" for Armenia in the post-Soviet space. Russia is the only "friendly country" for the vast majority of respondents. European countries, mainly France, are on the 2nd place, and Georgia is the 3rd.

4. Russia is the preferred partner against external enemies and in the Karabakh conflict, and the EU - in the field of science and protection of human rights. In addition, European tourists, students and migrant workers are the most preferred compared to other spaces.

5. The vast majority has a lack of awareness on the EU and the CIS/EAEU. The absolute majority even thinks that Armenia is a member of the EU. If in 2011 both spaces had mainly positive image and confidence, in 2014 the trust towards the EU fell down.

6. The vast majority supports Armenia's membership in the EAEU and a relative majority supports country's membership in the EU. In case of dilemma - the EU or the CIS, the majority choses the CIS. In general, Armenia has an average support for membership in the EAEU.