western canadian cow-calf surveyskstockgrowers.com/sg2014/_pdf/agm/2016/larson.pdf · 2016. 6....
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Western Canadian Cow-Calf Survey
June 13-14, 2016 SSGA AGM & Convention, Regina, SK
Kathy Larson
WBDC Beef Economist
@kathywbdc
Overview
• The Profit-Production Link
• WCCCS Background
• Survey Says….
• Cost Example of RMP Adoption
• Next Steps
@kathywbdc
The Profit-Production Link
@kathywbdc
The Profit-Production Link
Unit Cost of Production or Break-Even Price =
TOTAL COW HERD COSTS
TOTAL LBS OF CALF WEANED
Lower break-even in one of two ways:
Decrease the numerator (costs)
Increase the denominator (lbs of calf to sell)
@kathywbdc
The Profit-Production Link
Unit Cost of Production or Break-Even Price =
TOTAL COW HERD COSTS
TOTAL LBS OF CALF WEANED
CONCEPTION RATE OPEN RATE
% CALVED IN FIRST 21 D
CALVING SPAN
CALVING RATE CALF DEATH LOSS
WEAN RATE
@kathywbdc
@kathywbdc
WCCCS Background
• Funded by SK Agriculture Development Fund
• AB conducted cow-calf surveys in 80s & late
90s to generate provincial benchmarks
• Last one in 1998 involved over 1700 producers
• Collaboration between BC, AB, SK & MB to
revive & expand the AB survey to establish
Western Canadian production benchmarks
@kathywbdc
WCCCS Survey Details • 58 Q’s 30-45 minutes to complete
• Qs from 2013 Breeding to 2014 Calf Crop
• By design, asks what a producer did, not why they did what they did
• Survey ran from November 2014 to end of February 2015
• No $ compensation Complimentary report with indicators
@kathywbdc
WCCCS Background
• Generate an updated set of production benchmarks for the cow-calf industry
• Historical comparison with previous study how has industry changed
• Guide extension and research efforts
• Identify which management practices are linked to strong production performance
@kathywbdc
Survey Says….
WCCCS Survey Findings
8% 49%
24% 18% 5%
40% 30% 12% % of National Beef Cow Herd
Responses by Province
WCCCS AB SASK MB
# Responses 411 191 91 74
Average Age 50 54 42 50
Avg # Years Raising Cattle 28 31 20 27
@kathywbdc
21%
17%
29%
14%
8%
11%
18% 20%
25%
10%
15%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
<50 50-99 100-199 200-299 300-399 400+
WCCCS SK
WCCCS: Herd Size WCCCS AB SASK MB
# Females Calved in 2014 167 163 188 103
@kathywbdc
Reproduction Indicators WCCCS AB SASK MB
Cow:Bull Ratio 24:1 24.5:1 25:1 30:1
Breeding Season, days 92 84 96 98
% w 63 d or less 25% 29% 24% 19%
% Bred heifers earlier 26% 26% 27% 20%
Avg # Days earlier 13 12 14 11
Open Rate (Cows) 7% 6.6% 7% 7.7%
Open Rate (Heifers) 10% 7.5% 9.9% 6.9%
@kathywbdc
2013 Breeding Management
1998 WCCCS AB SASK MB
Pregnancy Check Cows
49% 60% 58% 64% 65%
Pregnancy Check Heifers
-- 66% 64% 67% 67%
Semen Test 51% 64% 63% 75% 59%
Artificial Insemination
-- 18% 19% 17% 22%
Estrus Synchronization
-- 11% 10% 14% 13%
@kathywbdc
Calving Start
15%
19% 18% 18%
24%
5%
10% 12% 13%
23%
34%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
January February Mar 1-15 Mar 16-31 April May
WCCCS
SK
65% start calving after March 15
55%
30%
10%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Day 1-21 Day 22-42 Day 42-63 Day 63+
Calving Distribution • Ideally, 60%+ calving in first 21 d • Close to 50% met this target • Improvement from ’98 48% in 1st 21 d
Calves can gain 2-2.5 lb/d
X 21 d @ $1.90/lb =
$80-100
Source: WCCCS
@kathywbdc
2014 SK Calf Crop
• 7% Average Calf Death Loss
• 28% Implanted Calves
– Of those who implanted, 21% implanted 2X
• 28% Provided Creep Feed
• 40% Wean Wt as % of Dam Wt
• 492 lb Weaned per Cow Wintered
@kathywbdc
2014 Calf Marketing
• 74% sold calves at weaning
• 43% sold more than 50% of their calves at weaning
• 29% preconditioned 30-60d
• 36% retained calves to background
• 9% retain to feedlot finish
• 66% who sold calves at weaning, sold 100% via live auction
@kathywbdc
SK Production Practices
• 84% supplied trace mineral in summer; 100%
in winter (EVEN/UP from 84% & 90% in ‘98)
• 20% Body Condition Score ( from 23% in ’98)
• Cow wt: ~1385 lb <20% provided scale wt
• 92% vaccinate (UP SLIGHTLY from 90% in ‘98)
• 77% vaccinate pre-breeding
• 12% inject in rump & hind ¼ ( from 29% in ’98)
@kathywbdc
Calf Vaccinations in 1998
@kathywbdc
SK Winter Feeding
• Close to 60% lab test feed for quality
• Of those, close to 80% use results for ration
balancing
• 65% sort cows for winter feeding
Age, 83%
Condition, 74%
Stage, 31% Other, 2%
@kathywbdc
17%
33%
18%
6%
17%
46%
28%
67%
17%
24%
41%
24%
6%
27%
55%
24%
74%
26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% WCCCS
SK
Winter Feeding Methods
Silage, Grain, TMR
62% have 2-3 winter feeding methods
@kathywbdc
WCCCS Extensive Feeding
55%
27%
56%
67%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
All BC AB SK MB
Percent of respondents who utilize Swathgrazing, Bale grazing, Stockpiled Grass, Standing Corn or Crop Residue for Beef Cow’s winter feeding program
n=382 n=26 n=191 n=91 n=74
@kathywbdc
Cost of Recommended Management Practice
(RMP) Adoption
@kathywbdc
Recommended Mgt Practices
• Reproduction is 5X more important than Growth Rate & 10X more important than Carcass Quality (Willham 1973)
• Targets shared by Dr. John Campbell:
– 95% Conception (WCCCS SK 93%)
– 63 d Breeding Season Cows (WCCCS SK 92 d)
– 45 d for Heifers, but 30-42 d earlier than Cows (WCCCS SK 92 d & 14 d earlier by only 27%)
– 65%+ Calved in 1st 21 d (WCCCS SK 55%)
@kathywbdc
Recommended Mgt Practices
–Vaccinate Pre-Breeding w MLV (WCCCS SK 77%)
– Semen Test Bulls, Test for Trich/Vibrio (WCCCS SK 75%, 24% & 14%)
–Maintain Body Condition Maintain Calving Interval (WCCCS SK 20% BCS, 65% sort for winter feeding)
@kathywbdc
RMP: Pregnancy Checking
• Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females
• Live 70 km from clinic
YES NO
RMP: Pregnancy Checking
• Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females
• Live 70 km from clinic
YES NO
$4.45/female x 350 =
~$1560 plus $170 mileage
$1730 or ~$5/female
RMP: Pregnancy Checking
• Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females
• Live 70 km from clinic
YES NO
$4.45/female x 350 =
~$1560 plus $170 mileage
$1730 or $5/female
Feed 150 d x $2.50/d =
$375/cow
If 7% open (25 hd)
$9375 in feed, yardage, labour
@kathywbdc
10 Yr Avg D1,D2 Price - AB
Source: CanFax
72.93 73.30
62.36
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/c
wt
15% Drop ~$148 on 1350 lb cow
Gained back by April
@kathywbdc
Mar 23 BCRC Blog
• As winter feeding cost , makes more sense to sell opens in fall
• Expected ADG influences sell/feed decision
• If spring price below $0.75/lb sell in fall
• Interactive web tool available online
Source: http://www.beefresearch.ca/blog/calculator-pregnancy-testing-cattle/
@kathywbdc
Interactive Tool
Source: http://www.beefresearch.ca/economicmodel/pregnancy-detection.cfm?type=advanced#part-a
Is Keeping Opens Worth It?
Fall Price is the average November price for D1,D2 cows in AB Spring Price is the average April price for D1,D2 cows in AB
$171 $207
$296 $306
$392
$489
$310 $303
$629
$555
$97
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Ch
ange
in V
alu
e $
/hd
D1
,D2
Co
w P
rice
, $/c
wt
Change Fall Price Spring Price
Assume 1.25 lb/d ADG; 150 d feeding @ $2.50/hd/d1250 lb to 1437 lb
The change in cull cow prices from Fall to the following Spring
often doesn’t cover the cost of feeding her.
@kathywbdc
Next Steps
@kathywbdc
RMP Cost & Benefit
• Re-survey producers to determine why or why not RMPs (recommended mgt practices) are followed
• Collect data to calculate cost of production
• Collect production measures
• Why are some RMPs followed while others are not?
• Does it matter? Is productivity and profitability connected to RMP adoption?
@kathywbdc
In Closing
• Remember the profit ↔ production link
• National Beef Strategy Productivity Pillar increase production efficiency 15% by 2020
• Increased adoption of RMPs & existing technologies can help industry reach this target
• Be part of the follow-up study to share why you do what you do on your operation
@kathywbdc
Any Questions? Kathy Larson
Cell: 306-930-9354
@kathywbdc
www.wbdc.sk.ca
Channel: WSTRNBEEF