western market spotlight - center for resource...
TRANSCRIPT
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Western Market Spotlight R E M 2 0 1 6
Scott Eidson P R E S E N T E D B Y :
October 17, 2016
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3Degrees Inputs & Assumptions
Key Drivers
Market View
0 2 0 1 0 3 0 4
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3Degrees
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C L I M A T E
S E R V I C E S
C O N S U L T I N G
We connect people with cleaner energy on a massive scale through:
R E C S A N D
C A R B O N
O F F S E T S
G R E E N P O W E R
& S H A R E D
R E N E W A B L E S
P R O G R A M S
C O M M U N I T Y
S O L A R
R E N E W A B L E
E N E R G Y
T R A N S A C T I O N S
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Solutions tailored to your goals
+ Customized Solutions
+ Flexible products
+ Structured transactions
+ Risk management
+ Advisory services
+ Additionality
+ $/REC = Independent Variable
+ Huntington Wind, Blue Basin Power & more
+ Compliance Markets + WECC, PJM, IL, TX, NC,
NEPOOL
+ Innovative & Impactful Projects
+ Ridgewood Green, Coastal Wind
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Inputs & Assumptions
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REC market fundamentals are universal MODELING
Note: Fungibility diagram, size and overlap are for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual quantities and proportions of multi-qualified RECs.
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Inputs and assumptions dictate results
MODELING
+ Data: BNEF, EIA, WREGIS, CRS
+ IRPs
+ Supply estimates + actual generation
+ Multi-fuel facilities - % renewable
+ Aggregated prices
+ Market Activity
+ Compliance Reports
Supply
+ Current regulatory structure
+ Regulatory Changes
+ Facility eligibility starts with online date
+ Program Eligibility
+ ITC/PTC
+ Renewable Development Pipeline
Demand
+ Current regulatory structure
+ Regulatory Changes
+ Voluntary Demand
+ Efficient Banking
+ Market prices and ACPs
+ Demand elasticity
Inputs Assumptions
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Key Drivers
03
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Uncertainty remains the story POTENTIAL IMPACT OF MARKET CHANGES
+ Clean Power Plan
+ CAISO Expansion
+ Liquidity
+ PTC/ITC Extension
+ Flexible Banking
+ Imports
+ Transmission
+ Clean Power Plan
+ CAISO Expansion
+ Liquidity
+ WA Clean Air Rule
+ Green-e Changes
+ OR RPS
+ CA RPS
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The story isn’t all about California anymore
WASHINGTON & OREGON
O R
W A
*
Common to both
+ Robust Voluntary market
+ Overlapping geographic constraints
+ CA RPS demand
+ CAISO expansion
+ Renewable potential
+ RPS Expansion
+ Banking
+ “Bundled” requirements
+ Clean Air Rule
+ Increasing Demand
+ Potential RPS Expansion?
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Market View
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WECC Supply & Demand FUNDAMENTALS
GWh
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Oregon exemplifies this puzzle FUNDAMENTALS
GWh + Banking
+ IOU procurement strategy
+ CAISO Expansion
+ External Influences
Banked Supply
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
S U P P L Y & D E M A N D
Renewable MWh by State
Compliance Demand by State (MWh)
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
CALIFORNIA SOURCING
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
O R/WA SOURCING
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
MT/NM/CO/NV SOURCING
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
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Geographic fungibility
Renewable Supply by State
SOURCING & SUPPLY
WECC Sourcing
FUNDAMENTALS
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
Current Environment TransWest Express Scenario
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
Current Environment Expanded Sourcing Scenario
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
Current Environment CAISO Expansion Scenario #1
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
Current Environment CAISO Expansion Scenario #2
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Geographic fungibility
FUNDAMENTALS
W E C C S O U R C I N G
Current Environment Poor Generation Year Scenario
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Buckle your seatbelts SUMMARY
+ Uncertainty, uncertainty and uncertainty
+ Period of increased volatility
+ Flexible banking provisions smooth short-term imbalances but magnify uncertainty
+ Regulatory change is upon us
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27 3degreesinc.com
Scott Eidson
Thank You
Vice President, Environmental Markets
415-674-1685