wg-mwfr activities jeanette onvlee chair wwrp/wg-mwfr

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1JSC meeting, 11-13 April 2012

WG-MWFR activities

Jeanette Onvlee Chair WWRP/WG-MWFR

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Current membership

Dale Barker (UK Met Office) Stephane Belair (Env Can) Jimy Dudhia (NCAR) Jeanette Onvlee (chair) Mathias Rotach (Univ. Innsbruck) Kazuo Saito (JMA/MRI) Peter Steinle (BOM) Volker Wulfmeyer (Univ Hohenheim) Hui Yu (CMA)

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Activities in the past year

Involvement in existing RDP’s/FDP’s and projects Involvement in (possible) new RDP/FDPs Dedicated workshops on specific topics Various other activities

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COPS final activities

Dedicated issue of QJRMS, 2011 Dedicated issue in Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2012 Final COPS workshop: session in EGU Final report to be submitted after EGU

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Major COPS Results and Conclusions

1) Logistics: Data collection and harmonization, common visualization tools, air traffic control, data base, ...

2) Processes: better understanding of processes influencing convective precipitation over orography

(behaviour of evapotranspiration, CAPE and CIN, influence of thermodynamically-induced flow on convective initiation,...)

3) Model performance and verification: Extensive validation of convection-permitting vs coarser models

(overestimation of transpiration at low soil moisture, too deep BL over mountains, vertical wind too low in convergence zones, windward-lee effects leading to displacement of convergence zone triggering CI at wrong locations, better diurnal cycle of precip and QPF by convection-permitting models,...)

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Meteo Swiss COSMO7 with parameterization of deep convection, 7-km grid resolution

Meteo Swiss COSMO2 without parameterization of deep convection, 2.2 km grid resolution

COPS Precipitation Statistics

COPS precipitation climatology (June to

August, 2007).

3-month integrated precipitation of

model - observations.

Convection-permitting models reduce the windward-lee effect and improve the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation.

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Major COPS Results and Conclusions

4) Demonstration of new observations:

Water-vapor and temperature lidar; GPS STD and tomography;

ground-based and airborne sensors of cloud microphysical properties; lidar aerosol data

• Much more can be exploited with the COPS data set, emphasis should be on studying ABL and microphysics.

• New lidar technology available for long-term operational measurements.

5) Data assimilation and predictability: Positive impact of assimilating GPS STD, radar winds and reflectivity Orography can increase the predictability of convection. The lead time is not limited by the lifetime of convective cells but by the

lifetime of the forcing conditions leading to convection. Multi-model ensemble provided improved simulation of convective

cells (14 h lead time).• COPS and D-PHASE data can be used as DA testbed, unique for verification studies •More impact studies and testing and comparison of different DA techniques still need to be done.

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Last activities Beijing 08 RDP/FDP

Overview article in BAMS, March 2012

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FROST-14

Combined RDP/FDP on nowcasting/mesoscale deterministic and probabilistic modelling, as meteorological support of Sochi 2014 Winter Games.

Winter nowcasting/short-range forecasting in complex terrain Kickoff meeting of FROST-14: March 2011. Second meeting:

April 2012. Scientific plan: written, to be discussed at this meeting Role WG-MWFR: finding partners, participation, advice to

organizers (learn from SNOW-V10 and other experiences)

Issues of concern: Availability of observations for DA: relatively few local data, radar

delayed?? LAMEPS: Sufficient attention to teaching forecasters how to use

this?

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HYMEX/TTM4

One of the (newest) task teams of HYMEX, led by a WG-MWFR member

Aim: set up testbed for DA based on HYMEX SOP data; organize/perform data assimilation experiments on e.g.: Test more flow-dependent assimilation techniques (4D-VAR,

hybrid ensemble assimilation, field alignment, …) Impact of new high-resolution observation types and how to

make the best possible use of them Rapid update cycling, spinup, balance, and usefulness of

mesoscale models/analysis systems for nowcasting Coupling aspects

Interest for participation gathered, solidify plans in next meeting at HYMEX workshop

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Some promising

new obs types


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Grey zone project

subgroup from WGNE, WG-MWFR, GCSS tasked to set up idealized grey zone experiment

Idea: Set up basic experimental framework and gain participants for initial “simple” extratropical case of cold air outbreak over sea, in 2011-2012. Later extend this framework and modelling community to other cases, including e.g. deep convection in tropics, open cell convection over land.

Status: Interest expressed by ~10 modelling groups. Case prepared, ready for release in May 2012. First results to be discussed in Pan-GASS meeting, Sep 2012.

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Possible new RDP: TOMACS TOkyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study Project of ~25 Japanese orgnizations, aimed at making urban areas

more weather-resilient TOMACS field campaign (2011-2013) Improvement of early detection and warning systems Social experiments in rescue services, risk management etc.

Originally purely Japanese initiative However, plenty of scope for international cooperation

Instrumentation Subsequent studies on urban meteorology / very high resolution

modelling / improved nowcasting/short-term forecasting and warning systems

Social aspect of weather-resilience

=> International RDP project in preparation Interest expressed by research groups in ~10 countries Draft plan tbd at international kickoff meeting Oct 2012

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Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study for extreme weather resilient city (TOMACS)

Core Research Institutes:National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED)Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)Toyo University

Collaborated with 23 organizations:NILIM, Japan Weather Association, NICT, ENRI, Hokkaido Univ., DPRI/Kyoto Univ., Osaka Univ., Yamanashi Univ., Chuo Univ., Nihon Univ., National Defense Academy, TMRI, CRIEP, Tokyo Fire Department, Yokohama City, Fujisawa City, Edogawa-Ku/Tokyo, JR-EAST, JR-CENTRAL, Obayashi Co., Toshiba Co., Pukyong National Univ., Corolado State Univ.

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Social Experiments on Extreme Weather Resilient Cities

Subject 3 ： Social ExperimentsSubject 2: Early Detection and Prediction System

【 Engineering 】Developments collaborating with end users(1) Extreme weather nowcasting methods(2) Development of test-beds of nowcasting systems(3) Extreme weather database

Subject 1 ： Field Experiments TOMACS

【 Sociology 】

Evaluation and adaption the developed nowcasting system

(1) Social experiments in rescue services, risk management, infrastructure and education

(2) Recommendations for extreme weather resilient cities

to Issue More Accurate and Adequate Warning

Nowcasting

Hazard Map

【 Meteorology 】To obtain new insight on mechanisms of extreme weather(1) Development of new technologies(2) Field campaign in the Tokyo area (3) Statistical analysis

Monitoring/Nowcasting System

to Evaluate and to Adapt the Nowcasting Systems

Field campaign in the Tokyo Metropolitan

area

Understanding the mechanismNew observation

facilities

Target: Local Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas

Many types of deep convection are generated in the warm season in the

Tokyo Metropolitan area

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A field campaign in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a dense observation network is conducted by MRI1, NIED2 and 12 research institutions in the summers 2011-2013, as a testbed for deep convection.

Microwave radiometers

Ku-band Fast Scan MP Radar

Doppler Lidars

JMA Lightning Detection Systems

JMA Operation Doppler

Radars 　　　

Radiosonde

2DVD Radar Calibration

site

GPS Receivers

Dense Surface Network

MRI C-band Solid-state MP Radar

Ｘ－ＮＥＴ(NIEDS and cooperative

org.)

Humid Warm Air

Relatively Cool Air

Wind Profilers

Scintillation Meter

MTSAT Rapid Scan

2. Field campaign in TOMACS (2011-2013)

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Forecast periodForecast period

Forecast accuracyForecast accuracy

2h2h 6hr6hr 1day1day

ExtrapolationExtrapolation

Limit of deterministic forecast Limit of deterministic forecast NowcastingNowcasting

Short range forecast for precipitation

Cloud resolving model and data assimilation

Reduce the gap Reduce the gap between nowcasting between nowcasting and NWP by high-and NWP by high-resolution data resolution data assimilation assimilation

Current NWP model

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3 ． Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)

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Kessler warm rain process was implemented in LT/ADJ models.

4DVAR assimilation of • Doppler Radar’s Radial Winds • Radar Reflectivity • GPS precipitable water vapor • Surface observations (wind, temperature)

(Kawabata et al., 2011; Mon. Wea. Rev.)

Cloud resolving 4DVAR with cloud microphysics

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Data archive

data archive format plan

Satellite Rapid Scan Archived at MRI NETCDF

JMA Doppler radars Archived at MRI GRIIB2

JMA Airport lidars Archived at MRI SIGMET (convertible to DRAFT)

MILT MP radars Archived at MRI NETCDF

X-NET radars Archived at NIED NETCDF (Level 1-2) See another table

JMA AWS (AMeDAS) Accessible from JMA network

Original to be converted to NETCDF

SYNOP, sonde, Wind profilers, LIDEN

Accessible from JMA network

Original

GPS TPW Archived at MRI Original text file

JMA Mesoscale analysis

Archived at MRI Original file (NuSDAS) 4DVAR 5kmL503 hourly

JMA hourly analysis planned Original file 3DVAR 5 kmL17

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6. Liaison with the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Weather Demonstration

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Potential partners

Korea: Pugyon National University, Ewha Womans UniversityUSA: CSU, NCAR, University Georgia, CAPS/OU, Univ MassachusettsBrazil: Sao Paulo UniversityAustralia: CAWCRAustria: ZAMGCanada: ECGermany: DWDHong Kong: HKOChina: Nanjing University

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Milestones

Field campaign: Summers of 2011-2013

Symposium and Kickoff meeting International symposium on extreme weather on Urban area

23-24, October, 2012, Tokyo (Okuyo Hall)

TOMACS RDP Kick-off Meeting 25, October, 2012, Tsukuba (MRI or NIED)

RDP Proposal: April, 2013

RDP International Workshops: Autumn, 2013-2015

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Organization

International Science Steering Committee Local organization committee International Advisory Board

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Other (possible) new projects

WG-MWFR participation in: INCA-CE SAB PPP project?

Proposal to cooperate with JWGFVR in ICP2 project (inter-comparison of spatial verification methods in complex terrain, using COPS (and later HYMEX SOP?) data)

Role in Lake Victoria project under consideration ??

Role in TM-related activities under consideration


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Workshop “Use of NWP in support of nowcasting”

Joint WG-NR - WG-MWFR Workshop, August 2011, Boulder.

Aims:Strengthen interaction between NWP and NWC communitiesConfront present and future prospects of NWP for NWC with

challenges of NWC, recommendations on way forward

~45 participants Workshop considered necessary and useful by participants,

wish expressed for follow-up workshop in a few years Article for BAMS in preparation More follow-up actions to be considered in WGNR – WGMWFR

meeting in August 2012

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Workshop HiRCoT12 High Resolution modelling in Complex Terrain: held in Vienna,

February 2012 Aims: review status, prospects and challenges of high-resolution

modelling in complex terrain and the problems therein Sessions on limitations in parameterizations, numerical issues,

input data and initialization, and computational issues Introductory presentations, much discussion Participants: ~30 (mostly Eur, N Am) WMO support requested/used to make participations more “world-

wide”

“High-resolution numerical modeling in complex terrain is a hot issue, many groups have the same problems (and some have also solutions), and all this is worthwhile to be shared in the community.“

Publication summarizing discussions and conclusions is intended.

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Various other activities

Preparations for workshop on physiographic data for high-resolution NWP models (temporarily halted due to funding problems)

Organization of LAM EPS training for duty forecasters in cooperation with EUMETCAL (March 2012)

Activities aiming at promoting international exchange of radar volume data within Europe for DA purposes Contacts EUMETNET/SRNWP and OPERA Radar data for HYMEX SOP

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Meetings/contacts Last WG-MWFR meeting: Berlin, September 2011 Contacts with JWGFVR

Joint meeting, Berlin, Sept 2011 verification of clouds, extreme weather, LAM EPS, ... Organize ICP2?

Contacts with WGNR Workshop on use of NWP as tool in support of nowcasting Nowcasting Symposium, Rio de Janeiro August 2012 Common activities in FROST14, Hymex, TOMACS, INCA-CE,

Lake Victoria, … Contacts with WGNE/GASS

Grey zone experimentation Physiography workshop

Thorpex/DAOS: WG-MWFR participation; joint activities? TIGGE-LAM: chair ex-officio member of WG-MWFR

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Actions from JSC-4 Action 17: lessons learnt from COPS

Summary in this presentation; Final report to be provided after COPS final meeting (EGU)

Action 18: status reports on Grey zone project

Included in WG-report, also in WGNE presentation

Action 19: project Sochi 2014

see agenda item on FROST-14.

Action 20: joint scoping workshop NWP in nowcasting

Done

Action 21: Prepare inventory of available training material

Ongoing

wg-mwfr activities jeanette onvlee chair wwrp/wg-mwfr

Documents