wgm group downtown housing presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Downtown HousingPreparing for the Big Senior Selloff
Brent A. Campbell, P.E.
President & CEO
WGM Group, Inc.
• Why Downtown Housing Matters
• The Future of Housing Demand
• Downtown Housing Types & Innovation
Why Downtown Housing Matters
Creating a Vibrant City Center
• Downtown Residential– Supports Retail & Services– 24 Hr. Pedestrian Activity– Lively Social Environment– Close to Entertainment– Walkable
The Future of Housing Demand
Reshaping Metropolitan America
Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICPPresidential Professor and Director
Metropolitan Research CenterUniversity of Utah
Development Trends & Opportunities to 2030
People Turning 65 by Year
Source: National Academy Press, www.nap.edu, Figure 3-7, 3 Demographic Trends, Board of Trustees, Federal Old Aged and Survivors Insurance Trust
Buy-Sell Rates by Age
Source: Dowell Myers & SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an EpicTransition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1‐17 (2007).
Changing Households
Household 1960 2000 2025With Children 48 % 33 % 28 %Without Children 52 % 67 % 72 %
Single 13 % 26 % 28 %
Source: Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003).
Relocation Choices of SeniorsHousing Type Before Move After Move
Attached 24 % 54 %Renter 20 % 59 %
Multifamily Share 2010 30%Multifamily Share 2020 36 %MF Share of New Unit Demand 2010-2020 50 %
Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah
75 % of all Seniors will Change Housing type between ages 65 and 80.
The Great Senior Sell-Off
Source: Dowell Myers & Sung Ho Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an EpicTransition”, Journal of the American Planning Association 74(1): 1‐17 (2007).
Active Adult (+55)Market Demand
AA Features & Location, 25%
AA Entry Level, 15%AA
Elite, 12%Features &
Location, 8%
Entry Level, 12%
Elite, 18%
Simple Life, 4%Family Life, 7% Projected For-Sale
Housing Demand
52 %
Features & LocationMarket Demand
AA Features & Location, 25%
Features & Location, 8%
AA Entry Level, 15%
Entry Level, 12%
AA Elite, 12%
Elite, 18%
Simple Life, 4%Family Life, 7% Projected For-Sale
Housing Demand
33 %
Demand for Housing Type
Source: Smart Growth America, The Urban Land Institute Presentation
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2003 Supply 2025 Demand Net New UnitsNeeded
AttachedSmall LotLarge Lot
Demand for Housing Type
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2010 Supply 2020 Demand Net New UnitsNeeded
AttachedSmall LotLarge Lot
Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., Presidential Professor and Director, Metropolitan Research Center, University of Utah
Downtown Housing Types & Innovation
Market ComponentsResidential Housing• Changing Demographics & Market Demand• For Sale Housing
– Small Lot– Condominiums– Townhomes
• For Rent Housing
Old Sawmill District
Riverfront Triangle
Brownstone Townhome
Townhomes
“Block M” Townhomes
Condominiums
Micro Housing
Container Housing
Container Housing
ImplementationPlanning Tools
• Downtown Master Plans– Economic & Market
Studies– Parking Studies– Traffic Studies– Capital Improvement
Plans (CIP)
• Special Zoning Districts– Residential Overlay
• Historic Districts & Overlays
• Design Guidelines
Impediments
• High Land Costs – Rental Income Replacement
• Construction Costs of New Housing• Hazardous Materials & Cleanup• Existing Infrastructure - Aging• Existing Regulatory Process (Zoning)• Neighborhood Issues• Historic Preservation
Recommendations• Residential Overlays In Specific Areas• Townhome, Condominium, Apartments• Form Based Code (Build-To Rather than
Setbacks• Build Public Parking• Form Public Private Partnerships• Increase Residential Density (1/1000 sf CBD?)• Evaluate Infrastructure Readiness• TIF Funding Critical – Levels Playing Field
Summary
Downtown Residential
• Will be in High Demand• The Current Supply is Relatively Low• For-Sale and Rental Product are in Demand• Product Type Will Change – Active Adult Market• Large Lot Suburban Housing in some markets will
be in trouble.• Parking is Key!
Downtown HousingPreparing for the Big Senior Selloff
Questions