what are we doing about carbon emissions from transport? and is it enough? tps bursary presentation...
TRANSCRIPT
What are we doing about carbon emissions from transport?
And is it enough?
TPS Bursary presentation byEleanor Mackay22 November 2006
Outline• Greenhouse gases and global warming• World & UK policy context• UK transport sector’s emissions• What are we doing?
– Reduction targets– Policy measures
• Is it enough?• What do we need to do now?
Global warming• Pre-industrial atmospheric CO2: 280 ppm• 2006 CO2: 382 ppm, growing at 2.5ppm/yr• Global avg temp rose +0.6C in 20th century• Expected increase +1.4 to +5.8 C in 21st century• 2C will be bad (extinctions, famine, mass
migrations); >2C could be catastrophic - “runaway climate change” as natural positive feedbacks kick in
UK share of global emissions• 2004 global emissions:
– 7,000m tons carbon– just over 1 ton C per person per year
• 2004 UK emissions: – 225MtC (3.2% of total)– 2.6 tons C/person/yr (2.37x world average)
Emissions reductions needed
• RCEP (2000) suggested UK’s contribution should be 60% cut by 2050 (550ppm stabilisation)
• BUT - • Latest work suggests we risk “losing control” at
>440ppm: & so need to cut global emissions per year by 60% to 0.33t C/head/yr by 2030
• Hence UK needs 87% cut by 2030 (Monbiot, 2006)
Global and National Policy Context1
98
8
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Inte
rgo
vern
men
tal P
anel
o
n C
limat
e C
han
ge
Est
'd
IPP
C 1
st A
sses
sem
ent
Rep
ort
Ear
th S
um
mit
Rio
: U
N F
ram
ewo
rk C
on
ven
tio
n o
n C
limat
e C
han
ge
Th
e K
yoto
Pro
toco
l
Joh
ann
esb
urg
Ear
th S
um
mit
Feb
05-
Kyo
to C
om
es in
to e
ffec
t N
ov/D
ec 0
5- M
ontr
eal C
OP
11
and
1st M
eetin
g of
the
Par
ties
to K
yoto
Nov
06-
Nai
robi
CO
P12
, MO
P2
IPP
C 4
th A
sses
smen
t R
epo
rt
UK
Wor
ld's
firs
t nat
iona
l Su
stai
nabl
e D
evel
opm
ent S
trat
egy
UK
SD
S 1s
t Rev
isio
n:
A B
ette
r Q
ualit
y of
Lif
e
UK
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
Prog
ram
me
UK
SD
S 2n
d R
evis
ion:
Sec
urin
g th
e Fu
ture
UK
CC
P R
evis
ion:
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
the
UK
Pro
gram
me
2006
UK policy context - targets
Kyoto obligation: 12.5% reduction 1990-2010Joint departmental PSA: 20% reduction 1990-20102003 Energy White Paper: Commit to RCEP 60%
reduction 1997-2050
Performance against targets
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
Year
Em
iss
ion
s in
mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
ca
rbo
n (
MtC
)
Greenhouse gasesCarbon Dioxide (CO2) emissionsKyoto target by 2008-2012PSA CO2 targetRCEP CO2 target 2050
Performance against targets
• Kyoto 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: on track?
• PSA 20% reduction CO2 emissions: govt now says unlikely to be met
• RCEP 60% reduction CO2 emissions: ?• How do we know?• Worrying trend in CO2?
UK transport sector CO2 emissions• UK total emissions: 153m tons C/yr• Transport emissions: 36m tons C/yr (23%)• Strongest growth in emissions: up 10% 1990-2004• Only sector to exhibit growth on 1990 levels
CO2 emissions: by mode
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002C
arb
on
Dio
xid
e E
mis
sio
ns
(mil
lio
n t
on
nes
of
carb
on
)
International shipping
National shipping
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Railways
Road transport
CO2 emissions: by sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020
Em
issi
on
s o
f C
O2
(MtC
)
Energy Supply
Business
Transport
Domestic
Agriculture, forestryand land management
Public Sector
What are we doing?UK transport sector policy measures
• Reduce the fossil carbon content of fuel:– Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
• Increase the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet– EU manufacturers’ voluntary agreement – Company car tax and VED reform
• Reduce usage of vehicles (reduce total veh-km)– “wider transport measures”– “sustainable distribution (in Scotland)”
Transport’s Emission Reductions Measure 2000 Climate
Change Programme2006 Climate Change Programme
EU Manufacturer’s Voluntary Agreements, Company car tax reform and reform of VED
4 Million tonnes of Carbon (MtC)
2.3MtC
Wider Transport Measures 1.6MtC 0.8MtC
Sustainable distribution (in Scotland) 0.1MtC
Fuel duty escalator 1 to 2.5MtC 1.9MtC
Total Existing Measures 6.6 to 8.1MtC 5.1MtC
Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation 1.6MtC
Future EU Manufacturer’s Agreement 0.1MtC
Total New Measures 1.7MtC
Overall Total 6.6 to 8.1MtC 6.8MtC
What are we doing? Carbon content of fuel
• Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation• 5% substitution by 2010 to commence 2008• Biofuels and carbon benefits• Biofuels and wider environmental/ sustainability
issues• Wider policy implications• Design of RTFO – weak incentive?
What are we doing?Vehicle fuel efficiency
• Car Manufacturer’s Voluntary Agreements• Reduce average new car CO2 emissions to
140gCO2/km (25% reduction on 1995 levels) by 2008/09
• Technological developments• VA increasingly shown to be off target • Most significant policy measure in the CCP for
transport
What are we doing?Vehicle fuel efficiency
• Reform of Vehicle Excise Duty and Company Car Tax• Both restructured to be based on graduated scale of
CO2 emissions of vehicles – highest emitters paying more
• VED linked to energy efficiency label• Company car tax reform more effective than VED• Price signal not significant enough incentive to change
behaviour in private car market
What are we doing? Wider transport measures
• Sustainable distribution, Bus quality contracts, Smarter Choices, Demand Management
• Largely unquantified benefits• Potentially significant role• Problems with implementing demand
management• Issues of design – Road Pricing
What are we doing?Wider transport measures
• Behavioural Change• Appears to be difference in expectations
between government and public in who has the ultimate responsibility
• Public assume government will legislate• Government provides information and lets
people choose
What are we doing? Future policy
• Emissions Trading and transport• A method to reach an emissions reduction level or cap
at the lowest cost by creating a market that should favour the cheapest options
• Cap determines the level of reduction• Inclusion of intra-EU flights into existing EU scheme by
2008? Unlikely to 2013 at earliest• Complexities of trading – rigour and politicisation of cap
setting, ability to administer a scheme including transport
Is it enough? Long term
• 2006 CCP measures project a 6.8MtC reduction• To meet the RCEP’s 60% reduction transport reduction
‘package’ must achieve 20MtC reduction• Significant technological and behavioural change are
needed in order to achieve a 25MtC (60%) cut by 2030• Aviation unchecked alone could grow to between 33%
and 50% of the total 60% reduction target by 2050 (excluding the effect of uplift)
Is it enough? Coverage
• Transport emissions targets only cover part of the story: international emissions excluded
• Lack of clarity for judging real progress• Potential conflict between transport and climate
change policy? – Aviation White Paper
Is it enough? Implementation
• Current policy is failing to deliver the necessary change on the ground: relies on a few individual policy measures
• Behavioural change is increasingly important but political will to create the right incentives is still lacking
• Focus is on the symptom i.e. the emissions and not the underlying cause i.e. unsustainable travel patterns and consumption of natural resources– limits the effectiveness, stores up the problems for the future
What do we need to do now?
• Significant reductions are attainable• Requires immediate action• Requires both significant change to technologies
employed and the way we use transport