PowerPoint-Prsentation

Slides from https://www.slideshare.net/ohararTwitter: @bobohara

Full slides link: https://www.slideshare.net/oharar/what-are-we-statistical-ecologists-or-ecological-statisticians/

Crispin: UNTBcombine stats & ecology

Crispin: UNTBcombine stats & ecology

Ecological Theory + Data + Statistics = Knowledge

What are we? Statistical Ecologists or Ecological Statisticians?

Bob O'HaraSenckenberg BiK-FFrankfurt am Main, Germany

Statistician

Ecologist

Source: Wikipedia http://bit.ly/1PLq3rG

Ecology is Complicated

Data is (or are) messy

Abundance Range Size

Mean abundance

Joint work with Johan Kotze

Statistical artefact?

Typical data for one species

Need to model abundance carefully

The Augmented Truncated Negative Binomial Distribution

Fit inflation with an EM algorithm

All to get this...

From the other end: ecological models

Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=445086

A Gompertz Model

log Abundances

Growth rates

Density Effects

Environmentalshocks

Work by Crispin Mutshinda-Mwanza, and Ian Woiwod

Decompose the variation

Interspecific variation:off-diagonal

Intraspecific variation: leading diagonal

Environmentalvariation

Proportions of Environmental Variance

Sampling variation also estimated

Statistics is big and difficult

What can ecologists do?

What can ecologists do?

Think!

Species Distribution Models

Source: Wikimedia, US Govt http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/CVR_FDR.htm

Species Distribution Models

Source: Swedish Accident Investigation Authority

A simplified and not wholly inaccurate explanation of how SDMs are developed by ecologists

Step 1: get occurrence data from GBIF

Step 2: get climate data from WorldClim

Step 3: put data into a black box

From Alejandro Ruete's talk at ISEC 2014

Step 4

Show that sampling issues are important

What can we do?

SoftwareMEE Applications

Ecography

unmarked

A Typical Discussion of P-values

Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/madaise/2612487968

My Thoughts on P-values

Source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/cars-nature-hd-wallpaper-54277/

Missing the bigger issue(s): converting numbers into knowledge

p-values are seductive

Some Alternatives

Bayes factors ... are not without their own complications, [b]ut, if they were more widely used, rules would evolve.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6290/1180.full

NO! Bayes Factors are NOT the answer

Bayes factors ... are not without their own complications, [b]ut, if they were more widely used, rules would evolve.

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6290/1180.full

Bottom line: p-values are tools

All tools will be abused

There are often better statistics

Try to be less abstract

Visualisation and Sponge Bacteria

Work by Johannes Bjrk

Crappy graphs by me

Positive

Negative

Big Picture Stuff

The distance between ecological models and data is big

A lot of statistics in ecology seems to increase it

We need to be able to communicate with each other

(less equations?)

We are both statistical ecologists and ecological statisticians

The End

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