what constitutes a fair level of effort for individual parties? ben gleisner:...
TRANSCRIPT
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What constitutes a fair level of effort for individual Parties?
Ben Gleisner: [email protected]
Post-2012 Emission Reduction Targets
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OverviewConcept of equity within the UNFCCC and KyotoInternational approaches used to determine post-2012 targetsMethodology/criteriaResultsStrengths and weaknessesIntegrating various elements into a conceptual framework to Assess Comparable Effort (ACE)Generating results in an interactive model Assessing Comparable Effort Interactive Support Tool (ACE-IST) An indicator/proxy based approach
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UNFCCC and the Kyoto ProtocolArticle 3.1 of the UNFCCC states action should be taken.. on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability
Current Kyoto targets range from -8% to +8% compared to 1990
Bali Action Plan includes reference that mitigation efforts need to be made while ensuring comparability of effort
European Commission also have agreed to targets provided that other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions
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International Approaches
European Commission
The Japanese Government
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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European Commission Proposal
The EU has proposed a 30% reduction target by 2020 compared to 1990 for Annex 1 as a whole
The EU is willing to take on a reduction target of 30% if the future international agreement is sufficiently ambitious
Four indicators used as criteria to assess comparability:
Income (GDP/Capita, 2005)Efficiency (GHG/GDP, 2005) Population trends (1990 2005)Past efforts (1990 2005 growth in gross emissions)
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European Commission Proposal
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European Commission Proposal
Targets results from equal weighting of each criteria
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European Commission Proposal
Strengths of approach
Simple uses currently available data Equitable attempts to factor in a range of different criteria Weaknesses of approach
No rationale for weighting chosen within and between criteriaPast efforts should be relative to Kyoto TargetMitigation potential (efficiency) not well captured with GHG/GDP [OECD]Costs of meeting targets are varied and could be perceived as unequitable
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European Commission ProposalEconomic implications of meeting the 2020 target
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Japanese Governments proposal
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Japanese Governments proposal
Targets should be based on:
Sectoral mitigation potential (efficiency indices)Residential and CommercialPower generationTransportIndustry Steel, Aluminium and Cement An assessment of total costs of meeting target as % of GDP using marginal abatement cost curves
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Strengths of approach
Acknowledges that costs are a key part of an assessment of what is fairUses sectoral-based analysis to determine potential (not GDP/GHG) Weaknesses of approach
Only takes into consideration cost as a basis for equityData to compare sectoral efficiencies may be difficult to find Do not propose how sectoral efficiencies could be used/compared against aggregate costs/MACCs
Japanese Governments proposal
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyTwo conceptual approaches for comparable efforts :Equal effort: based on countrys sharing the effort or burden according to a defined indicator. Efforts are needed to change the current state or to change a likely baseline or reference developmentFor example, equal reduction below BAU, equal MAC and equal costs as %-GDPEqual endpoint: the countries effort is based on achieving the same state in the futureFor example, equal emissions intensity per sector, or per capita emissions, Triptych.
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Results for countries are relatively similar under each approach
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Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
The results change for some countries using different models
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Strengths of approach
Uses a range of different criteria Uses sensitivity analysis to show how different models change resultsGenerates a set of (relatively) independent results Weaknesses of approach
Only uses 2 models in their sensitivity analysis No transparency of underlying dataDoes not integrate criteria i.e. only cost, or only GHG/capitaDoes not provide results for smaller countries like New Zealand
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Large independent modelling exercise
Post-2012 targets (2020) for Annex 1 Parties are based on the costs of meeting the target, as a % of GDP
The primary inputs to this model are:
Baseline projections in 2020 Marginal abatement costs in 2020 GDP projections in 2020
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Baseline projections out to 2020
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Mitigation costs in 2020
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Using the total cost of abatement define targets as % of GDP
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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0.16577311090.16577311090.16577311090.165773110900.16577311090.16577311090.16577311090.16577311090.1657731109
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0.1642828750.1642828750.1642828750.164282875-0.00007559280.1642828750.1642828750.1642828750.1642828750.164282875
0.16181838420.16181838420.16181838420.1618183842-0.00018565140.16181838420.16181838420.16181838420.16181838420.1618183842
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0.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.1530101819-0.00048963420.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.1530101819
0.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.1530101819-0.00048963420.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.15301018190.1530101819
0.15116824410.15116824410.15116824410.1511682441-0.0005343520.15116824410.15116824410.15116824410.15116824410.1511682441
0.150998480.150998480.150998480.15099848-0.00053741070.150998480.150998480.150998480.150998480.15099848
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0.14851306360.14851306360.14851306360.1485130636-0.0005721240.14851306360.14851306360.14851306360.14851306360.1485130636
0.14845493010.14845493010.14845493010.1484549301-0.0005725080.14845493010.14845493010.14845493010.14845493010.1484549301
0.14514387150.14514387150.14514387150.1451438715-0.00057992430.14514387150.14514387150.14514387150.14514387150.1451438715
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0.11042157950.11042157950.11042157950.1104215795-0.00042301580.11042157950.11042157950.11042157950.11042157950.1104215795
0.08099311290.08099311290.08099311290.0809931129-0.00007313420.08099311290.08099311290.08099311290.08099311290.0809931129
0.07916590310.07916590310.07916590310.0791659031-0.00004949670.07916590310.07916590310.07916590310.07916590310.0791659031
0.0730662290.0730662290.0730662290.0730662290.00004815760.0730662290.0730662290.0730662290.0730662290.073066229
0.06685400880.06685400880.06685400880.06685400880.00015283610.06685400880.06685400880.06685400880.06685400880.0668540088
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-0.0497620487-0.0497620487-0.0497620487-0.04976204870.0036882581-0.0497620487-0.0497620487-0.0497620487-0.0497620487-0.0497620487
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-0.0754162967-0.0754162967-0.0754162967-0.07541629670.0056598934-0.0754162967-0.0754162967-0.0754162967-0.0754162967-0.0754162967
-0.1678795498-0.1678795498-0.1678795498-0.16787954980.0279654482-0.1678795498-0.1678795498-0.1678795498-0.1678795498-0.1678795498
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Norway
United States of America
Switzerland
Japan
EU27
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Emissions relative to 1990
Total cost (share of GDP2020)
BL_em
1990abs20052020199020052020
Australia416.1553279677529.524173044611255.55811.2724195451.468815889
Canada592.2814663157734.4907794341795854.26911.24010427681.3437095608
EU275567.67576926085147.18742726315564828.11410.92447686260.9994885379
Japan1272.05640925371358.06475571391314839.26111.06761362611.0336328259
New Zealand61.947861357577.353668144385149.9711.24868988941.3745425287
Norway49.698280502453.800303681359450.50611.08253853331.19622863
Russian Federation3326.40402396792123.35853332262830890.35710.63833452520.8510362351
Switzerland52.800141526753.790246722959541.72711.01875194211.1276812008
Ukraine922.0132782039425.6661939174442108.07710.46167035120.4795029393
United States of America6135.2426824517106.63798779617152300.94811.158330381.1657731109
Annex-I18396.275240807317609.8740690418916218.78710.95725215231.0282635229
BL_em
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Norway
United States of America
Switzerland
Japan
Annex-I
EU27
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Year
Emissions relative to 1990
Steps
0.2%GDP
20%4%
Australia0.3890.21938.921.9
Canada0.11-0.04311-4.3
EU27-0.056-0.137-5.6-13.7
Japan-0.015-0.105-1.5-10.5
New Zealand0.2550.07525.57.5
Norway0.1680.10816.810.8
Russian Federation-0.158-0.172-15.8-17.2
Switzerland0.109-0.1110.9-11
Ukraine-0.52-0.533-52-53.3
United States of America0.076-0.047.6-4
Annex-I-0.033-0.116-3.3-11.6
Steps
Australia
Canada
EU27
Japan
New Zealand
Norway
Russian Federation
Switzerland
Ukraine
United States of America
Annex-I
CC_allParties_20pc
Australia
New Zealand
Norway
Canada
United States of America
Switzerland
Annex-I
Japan
EU27
Russian Federation
CC_AI
Australia
New Zealand
Norway
Canada
United States of America
Switzerland
Annex-I
Japan
EU27
Russian Federation
IEAvsLow
AustraliaCanadaEU27JapanNew ZealandNorwayRussian FederationSwitzerlandUkraineUnited States of America
Emissions rel. 1990costs per GDP
0611521.23146.9%0.0%0796105.6410.3441339739005584740.6430.0030649906001314855.1830.03364534260085192.1920.37522410190059450.4920.1962283483002832157.188-0.14858292390059541.6910.12768051900442151.412-0.5204500603007155738.463
0611255.55846.9%0.0%0795854.26934%0%05564828.114-0.1%0%01314839.2613%0%085149.9737%0%059450.50620%0%02830890.357-15%0%059541.72713%0%0442108.077-52%0%07152300.94817%0%
-248.53610389.26946.7%-0.0%-1.35795849.79634%-0%-234.835563979.457-0%-0%-0.391314838.0923%-0%-1.0685146.75137%-0%-0.0259450.41220%-0%02830890.357-15%0%059541.72713%0%0442108.077-52%0%-0.247152299.89517%-0%
-248.53610389.26946.7%-0.0%-1.35795849.79634%-0%-235.695563974.864-0%-0%-1.331314833.0593%-0%-1.0685146.75137%-0%-0.0259450.41220%-0%02830890.357-15%0%059541.72713%0%0442108.077-52%0%-0.247152299.89517%-0%
-248.53610389.26946.7%-0.0%-25.92795708.87634%-0%-269.865563784.082-0%-0%-1.331314833.0593%-0%-6.6385114.52937%-0%-0.0259450.41220%-0%02830890.357-15%0%059541.72713%0%0442108.077-52%0%-154.797151391.73517%-0%
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Emissions rel. to 1990AustraliaCanadaEU27JapanNew ZealandNorwayRussian FederationSwitzerlandUkraineUnited States of America
46.9%0.0%
46.7%-0.0%
46.7%-0.0%
46.7%-0.0%
46.7%-0.0%
46.6%-0.0%
46.6%-0.0%
46.6%-0.0%
46.6%-0.0%
46.4%-0.1%
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46.3%-0.1%
46.3%-0.1%
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46.2%-0.1%
46.2%-0.1%
46.0%-0.1%
46.0%-0.1%
45.8%-0.1%
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44.9%-0.1%
43.5%-0.1%
43.5%-0.1%
42.9%-0.1%
42.7%-0.1%
41.3%-0.0%
41.3%-0.0%
30.3%0.2%
30.2%0.2%
29.8%0.2%
27.7%0.2%
26.1%0.3%
16.9%0.6%
16.5%0.7%
16.4%0.7%
15.9%0.7%
14.7%0.8%
14.5%0.8%
14.0%0.8%
13.9%0.8%
13.2%0.9%
11.9%1.0%
11.8%1.0%
11.0%1.1%
11.0%1.1%
-2.3%7.1%
34.4%0%
34.4%-0%
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34.3%-0%
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33.1%-0%
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27.4%-0%
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18.7%-0%
14.1%-0%
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8.9%0%
8.3%0%
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0.8%0%
0.3%0%
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3.4%0%
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37.5%0%
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37.1%-0%
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36.5%-0%
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36.3%-0%
35.1%-0%
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34.8%-0%
33.5%-0%
31.1%-0%
30.2%-0%
29.6%-0%
29.0%-0%
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28.8%-0%
27.6%-0%
27.3%-0%
22.3%0%
22.3%0%
21.3%0%
21.2%0%
19.2%0%
19.0%0%
19.0%0%
15.1%1%
14.1%1%
12.1%1%
9.8%1%
9.5%1%
5.4%1%
4.3%2%
4.3%2%
4.1%2%
-3.7%7%
19.6%0%
19.6%-0%
19.6%-0%
19.6%-0%
19.6%-0%
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19.6%-0%
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-34.0%3%
-34.9%3%
-35.4%3%
-36.4%4%
-37.3%5%
-42.1%12%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%0%
12.8%-0%
12.8%-0%
12.8%-0%
12.1%-0%
10.3%0%
9.9%0%
8.0%0%
8.0%0%
7.9%0%
7.9%0%
7.1%0%
6.8%0%
6.8%0%
6.6%0%
6.5%0%
2.2%0%
-0.1%0%
-0.7%0%
-1.3%0%
-1.3%0%
-1.3%0%
-1.3%0%
-1.8%0%
-2.6%0%
-3.9%0%
-4.8%0%
-5.4%0%
-5.7%0%
-21.1%2%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.0%0%
-52.1%0%
-54.7%0%
-54.9%0%
-55.0%0%
-56.0%0%
-56.1%0%
-56.6%0%
-56.6%0%
-56.7%0%
-57.0%0%
-57.0%0%
-60.9%2%
-63.0%3%
-63.3%3%
-63.4%3%
-63.7%3%
-63.8%3%
-63.8%3%
-63.8%3%
-64.6%4%
-64.7%4%
-65.4%5%
-65.7%5%
-65.9%5%
-66.4%6%
-71.0%42%
16.6%0%
16.6%-0%
16.6%-0%
16.6%-0%
16.6%-0%
16.6%-0%
16.5%-0%
16.4%-0%
16.2%-0%
16.0%-0%
16.0%-0%
15.6%-0%
15.3%-0%
15.3%-0%
15.1%-0%
15.1%-0%
15.0%-0%
14.9%-0%
14.9%-0%
14.8%-0%
14.5%-0%
13.2%-0%
13.0%-0%
12.7%-0%
12.0%-0%
11.2%-0%
11.0%-0%
8.1%-0%
7.9%-0%
7.3%0%
6.7%0%
6.5%0%
-0.7%0%
-0.9%0%
-0.9%0%
-1.5%0%
-3.6%0%
-3.7%0%
-3.7%0%
-3.8%0%
-3.8%0%
-5.0%0%
-5.4%0%
-6.8%1%
-7.5%1%
-16.8%3%
IEAvsLow
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Norway
United States of America
Switzerland
Japan
EU27
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Emissions relative to 1990
Total cost (share of GDP2020)
20vs4
Australia
Ukraine
Emissions relative to 1990
Total cost (share of GDP2020)
20pc
Australia
Emissions relative to 1990
Total cost (share of GDP2020)
04pc
Annex I20051990GPD-2020POP-2020
17609.8740690418,396.343934.120321222.37669620% interest rate
EmissionscostsEm rel 1990Em Rel 2005Costs rel GDPCosts per cap
Baseline19637456.35607%12%0.00%0
-100018916218.78703%7%0.00%0
-20018914493.831-486.423%7%-0.00%-0.0003979297
-18018914484.205-488.223%7%-0.00%-0.0003994022
-17018913212.121-707.083%7%-0.00%-0.0005784469
-16018913212.121-707.083%7%-0.00%-0.0005784469
-15018912765.499-776.723%7%-0.00%-0.0006354179
-14018906662.182-1633.53%7%-0.00%-0.0013363311
-13018903210.368-2099.113%7%-0.00%-0.0017172366
-12018885616.129-4302.923%7%-0.01%-0.003520126
-11018868268.86-6298.573%7%-0.01%-0.0051527242
-10018862958.629-6843.673%7%-0.02%-0.0055986588
-9018834927.717-9561.022%7%-0.02%-0.0078216642
-8018808735.186-11742.32%7%-0.03%-0.0096061223
-7018805289.104-12011.172%7%-0.03%-0.009826079
-6018788663.678-13123.32%7%-0.03%-0.0107358886
-5018784810.813-13336.442%7%-0.03%-0.0109102538
-4018769712.083-14006.022%7%-0.03%-0.0114580228
-3018745536.234-14863.32%6%-0.03%-0.012159345
-2018731817.33-15173.722%6%-0.03%-0.0124132929
-1018724108.531-15274.052%6%-0.03%-0.0124953707
018639543.715-15608.611%6%-0.04%-0.0127690671
518357546.612-14948.67-0%4%-0.03%-0.0122291844
1018229615.927-14069.05-1%4%-0.03%-0.0115095862
1518184214.124-13502.6-1%3%-0.03%-0.0110461857
2018035406.326-10979.41-2%2%-0.02%-0.0089820184
2517784882.599-4970.76-3%1%-0.01%-0.0040664715
3017728609.592-3416.58-4%1%-0.01%-0.0027950304
3517382942.1477890.72-6%-1%0.02%0.0064552278
4017317331.6610295.2-6%-2%0.02%0.008422281
4517195771.10115584.04-7%-2%0.04%0.0127489669
5017097289.96820259.57-7%-3%0.05%0.0165739171
6016903005.81430754.03-8%-4%0.07%0.0251592084
7016152054.38379549.72-12%-8%0.18%0.0650779095
8016041990.71387613.73-13%-9%0.20%0.0716749021
9015990491.68291942.82-13%-9%0.21%0.0752164372
10015924864.52498304.5-13%-10%0.22%0.0804207904
11015750967.112116137.66-14%-11%0.26%0.0950097138
12015700441.989122003.15-15%-11%0.28%0.0998081446
13015635232.927130179.06-15%-11%0.30%0.1064966801
14015612048.098133301.64-15%-11%0.30%0.1090511955
15015545071.601143096.73-15%-12%0.33%0.1170643472
17515364444.962172778.18-16%-13%0.39%0.1413461011
20015280659.878188272.74-17%-13%0.43%0.1540218663
22515120421.94222993.63-18%-14%0.51%0.1824262772
25015001500.253251004.58-18%-15%0.57%0.205341431
2000013830321.5851378931.17-25%-21%3.14%1.1280738372
0%-0.30%
0%1.50%
1213101Reductions
GHGsCO2CH4N2OFGAS
19637456.35616046910.8187196.513768.21591273
18916218.78715486163.9183009.973562.27582541.42CO2CH4N2OFGAS
18784810.81315356464.8982961.763560.23582476.78-60(131,407.97)129.701.010.630.06
18784810.81315356464.8982961.763560.23582476.78-50(131,407.97)129.701.010.630.06
18769712.08315341483.1882958.583560.07582476.78-40(146,506.70)144.681.080.680.06
18745536.23415317512.782952.263559.84582476.78-30(170,682.55)168.651.210.750.06
18731817.3315303861.1682951.863559.65582476.78-20(184,401.46)182.301.220.810.06
18724108.53115296907.182917.373559.55582476.78-10(192,110.26)189.261.940.840.06
18639543.71515225612.482615.643552.53577717.880(276,675.07)260.558.283.024.82
18229615.92715086939.6882331.553182.35427183.9910(686,602.86)399.2214.25117.78155.36
18035406.32614953093.882129.43175.01373343.0820(880,812.46)533.0718.49120.05209.20
17728609.59214687536.8480939.623167.92359285.2630(1,187,609.20)798.6343.48122.25223.26
17317331.6614393763.180802.513119.58259646.8540(1,598,887.13)1,092.4046.36137.23322.89
17097289.96814251814.2179645.753072.36220482.3850(1,818,928.82)1,234.3570.65151.87362.06
16903005.81414092824.1378910.563065.93202621.2360(2,013,212.97)1,393.3486.09153.87379.92
16152054.38313393857.7777746.013065.82175126.0370(2,764,164.40)2,092.31110.54153.90407.42
16041990.71313368507.3877372.332960.2131003.0180(2,874,228.07)2,117.66118.39186.64451.54
15990491.68213336386.1377368.142918.26124715.5590(2,925,727.11)2,149.78118.48199.64457.83
15924864.52413290965.9777360.982853.56124715.55100(2,991,354.26)2,195.20118.63219.70457.83
15750967.11213175552.6476732.692843.3582589.17110(3,165,251.68)2,310.61131.82222.87499.95
15700441.98913167452.374715.372843.16