What Determines Elections?

Linkage Institutions #4

The Campaign

• Running For President– “Getting Mentioned”• “Off the record” mention you are considering it• Travel around the country to give speeches

(Obama)• Have a famous name (Trump)• Be identified with major legislation (McCain)• Governor of a major state (Bush, Romney)

The Campaign

• Organization–Large Paid Staff–Volunteers (Ground Game)–Advisors on Issues (Position

Papers)

The Campaign

• Strategy and Themes– Incumbents defend record, Challengers attack– Developing a Theme• “Change You Can Believe In”

– Developing a Tone (Positive or Negative)– Issues (Two Types)• Position Issues: Issues in which rival candidates have

opposing views and voters divided• Valence Issues: Issues in which nearly everyone agrees

(strong economy)

Delivering Your Message

1) Spots (Paid Advertisements)2) News Broadcasts (“Visuals)3) Debates4) Internet

Spots (Paid Advertising)

Spots (Paid Advertising)

News Broadcasts

• Cost the campaign very little• Has greater credibility with voters• Actually are LESS informative than paid

advertisements

Debates

• Usually only an advantage to the challenger– Reagan 1980– Clinton 1992– Romney (First Debate at least) 2012

• Higher Risk than Reward in most cases– Rick Perry in Primary not being able to detail his

own program– Mitt Romney in Senate Race in Massachusetts

Debates

Debates

Debates

The Internet

• Direct Mail Campaigns Become Possible• Addressing Specific Voters• Fundraising Ability

Money

• Presidential Primaries– Federal Matching Funds for all individual donations of $250

or less– Gives incentive to raise from small donors– Grants given to cover convention costs

• Presidential General Election– Can be Public Money (limited though) or Private (more and

more politicians)• Congressional Elections– All private money (individuals, PACs, Parties)– Most money from individual small donors

Campaign Finance Rules

• 1974 Reform (Brought on by Watergate)• Federal Campaign Reform Law– Limit on individual donations– Ban on corporate or union donations– Allowed to raise money through PACs (Political Action

Committees)– PACS must….

• Have 50 voluntary members• Give to at least 5 federal election candidates• Limited to $5,000 per election per candidate and $15,000 per

year to a party

Campaign Finance Rules

• 1974 Reform (Continued)– Primary and general election counted separately

for donations– Public Funding for Presidential Campaigns• Matching funds in Primary• Full Funding up to a limit (for major parties)• More and more candidates declining • Partial funding for minor parties that get 5% of the vote

in previous election (Green Party- Nader in 2000)

Campaign Finance Rules

• Problems with Reform– Independent Expenditures• An organization or PAC can spend as much as it wishes

on advertising as long as it is not coordinated with a campaign

– Soft Money• Unlimited amount of money may be given to a party as

long as a candidate is not named. Money can be spent on helping candidates with voter drives (Half a billion spent in 2000)

Campaign Finance Rules

• 2000 McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act– Banned Soft Money Contributions to national

parties from corporations and unions– Raised the limit on individual donations to $2,000

per candidate, per election– Restricted Independent Expenditures• Groups could not use their own money for an

advertisement referring to a candidate by name in months before an election

Campaign Finance Rules

• Mc-Cain Feingold Loopholes–527s • Groups that permit soft-money spending

that once went to parties• Cannot “coordinate” with a candidate or

lobby directly for that person• 2004- 1/3 of a billion dollars spent by

527s

Campaign Finance Rules

• Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010)– Challenged Independent Expenditures aspect of

McCain-Feingold– 5-4 vote stating that it violated first amendment rights

• Equates money with speech• And “corporations are people, my friend”

– Led to creation of SUPERPACS!!!!• Not allowed to coordinate with campaigns, but can spend

unlimited amounts of money• As of October they have spend half a billion dollars

Money