What does the air quality scenario envision?

We produced a very broad, ambitious scenario, structured around 4 societal needs:

- Real-time event analysis (e.g., smoke, dust plumes)For forecasts, alerts, exceptional event rule analysis, etc.

- Assessing long-range transport of air pollutionPolicymakers need scientific assessments, assessment requiresbetter tools for using satellite, met, ambient data

- Assimilating satellite data with models to improve AQ forecastsSatellite data will improve forecasts, particularly in sensor-poor regions;interoperabilty challenge to make sufficiently fast forecasts feasible.

- Getting air quality forecasts and nowcasts to the publicAllows individuals, families to adjust plans if air quality is/will be poor;allows health community, other decision-makers to plan for episodes

Development of the AIP Air Quality Scenario

• Developed iteratively by a collaborating multi-organization group • Written on the ESIP wiki, using online forum and telecons to plan, discuss,

and develop the submitted scenario • Developed the ESIP air quality Community of Practice, which is co‑evolving

with the AIP Pilot and other activities

Community of Practice Wiki for AQ Scenario

SatelliteAgency

satellite-modelfusion

met data

PM, NO2columns

transport

models

Air QualityAnalysts

conc.fields

met data

transportmodels

Report:

intercontinental

pollutant xport

PolicyMakers

Signinternationalagreement?

AQManagers

Was pollutionevent due

to transportfrom afar?

Eventanalysis

AQIForecasters

transportmodels

met data

Public

AQI today,tomorrow, later

Is it healthyto go for

a run now?

Decision makers,Decisions

EarthObs.

Value Chain Representation of the Scenario (simplified)

Blue: not currently operationally existent; what we need from GEOSSGreen: not currently adequate; what society needs from GEOSS

What does the air quality scenario envision?

• Data and tools needed for any one of the 4 goals… …are needed for all of them

• Many data, tools already exist for each goal……but the systems don’t readily work together

We have produced a broad, ambitious scenario which does not call for specific ‘killer apps’ or demonstrations. Instead it calls for a service-oriented, interoperable, accessible, and available system of systems.

• Earth Observations Providers Space agencies; met, land management, and environmental/health agencies(national, regional, local); Academics; Private sector

• Air Quality Modelers, Forecasters, and Analysts

Environmental/health management and met agencies (national, regional, local)

Modelers and analysts in many settings

• Information Management Specialists

• Air Quality Management Decision-Makers

Environmental, health agencies;

Multi-lateral Cooperative Fora: LRTAP, EANET, Malé Declaration, Arctic Council

• Other Consumers of Air Quality Informations

Public, researchers, mass-media, …

Air Quality & Health Scenario: Actors

Many actors are ‘decision-makers’

Policymakers, sensitive individuals, modelers, parents, transit officials, air quality managers, weather forecasters, air quality analysts, environmental compliance officials, …

Air Quality & Health: Starting Information

• Meteorological data – Observations from ground-based networks, satellites, sondes– Forecasts from numerical models at the global and regional scales

• Geographical data – Land use – Demographics– Emissions-related activity

• Atmospheric Composition (Air Quality) Observations– Surface Monitoring Networks– Satellite Observations – Sondes– Ground-based remote sensors– Aircraft Measurements

• Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models – (at regional to global scales)

Air Quality & Health Scenario: Existing Efforts

• Real-Time Large-Scale Event Analysis – FASTNET, IDEA, SmogBlog

• Assessment of International and Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollution– HTAP Data Network, AMET, RSIG, HemiTap

• Assimilation of Observations for Air Quality Forecasting– GEMS, RAQMS

• Provision of Relevant Information to the Health Community & the Public– AIRNow, PHASE

Examples – pieces of the puzzle

GAW:

WMO

Global

Atmosphere

Watch

Examples – pieces of the puzzle

GEMS:Global & regionalEarth systemMonitoringusingSatellites

(ECMWF)

Examples – pieces of the puzzle

Informing the public about Air Quality & Forecasts in real time: AIRNow

Interoperability needed!

many systems,

many pipes….

we shouldn’t

keep reinventing

wheels!

Societal needs and the actors

Da

ta wo

nks

Mo

de

lers

Air Q

uality a

na

lysts

Loca

l policy m

ake

r

Dista

nt p

olicy m

aker

Se

nsitive individ

ual

Real time

event analysisX X X X X X

Assessing inter-continental transport

X X X X X

Merging satellites,

in-situ, model dataX X X

AQ nowcasts, forecasts to public

X X X X X