what does the paris agreement mean for climate policy in the netherlands?
TRANSCRIPT
What does the Paris Agreement mean for climate policy in the Netherlands?
(Dutch title: Wat betekent het Parijsakkoord voor het Nederlandse klimaatbeleid?)
Sebastian Sterl, Niklas Höhne, Takeshi Kuramochi27 March 2017
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What are the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement?What do the Paris Agreement long-term goals mean for the Netherlands?Conclusions
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Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/
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Temperature limit: keep global warming “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”
Net zero emissions: global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) should decrease as fast as possible, such that they reach “net zero” in the second half of the century.
The long-term goals of the Paris Agreement
Illustrative 2°C scenario
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0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Glob
al g
reen
hous
e ga
s em
issio
ns i
n Gt
CO2e
CO2 from energy use and industry
CO2 from forests
Non-CO2
Source: Marker scenario RCP 2.6 of IPCC, RCP scenario database http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download
Timing for zero global emissions
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Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
Timing for zero global emissions
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Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*
Timing for zero global emissions
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Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
*
Timing for zero global emissions
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Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
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Paris-compatible without negative emissions
1.5°C Well below 2°C
2°C
Timing for zero global emissions
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Source: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/*: Includes energy supply and use, industry, forestry and land use
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Paris-compatible without negative emissions
1.5°C Well below 2°C
Paris-compatible with negative emissions1.5°C Well
below2°C
2°C
2°C
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Immediate action where possible can help to buy extra time for other sectors
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Other than linear reduction
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What are the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement?What do the Paris Agreement long-term goals mean for the Netherlands?Conclusions
www.newclimate.org
Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/
02/05/2023 www.newclimate.org 12
Netherlands: Must be earlier than world average (developed country) (≈10 years)
Power sector: Must be earlier than other sectors (≈10 years)
Coal: Must be earlier than rest of power sector (≈5 years)
What does it mean for the Netherlands?
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“Current policy scenario” only limited reductions Urgenda verdict (based on 2°C) is not in line with new goals of Paris Agreement
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Total emissions in the Netherlands
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Pathways: energy sector
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Pathways: energy sector
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Pathways: transport sector
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Pathways: buildings sector
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Sector Indicator Compatible with the Paris Agreement
Energy supply
Share of renewables in electricity supply 100% latest in 2025
Share of coal in electricity supply Zero latest in 2020
Share of renewables in total final energy demand 100% by 2025-2035
TransportShare of EVs in LDV fleet 100% by 2025-2035
Share of EVs in new LDV sales 100% latest in 2025
Buildings Share of households using gas as main heating source
0% by 2025-2035
Industry Process emissions from industry Zero by 2025-2035
AgricultureCO2 emissions from greenhouses Zero by 2025-2035
Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture Zero by 2080-2090
Results: Sectoral pathways
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What are the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement?What do the Paris Agreement long-term goals mean for the Netherlands?Conclusions
www.newclimate.org
Contents
https://newclimate.org/2016/10/13/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-policy-in-the-netherlands/
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The Paris Agreement sets a new level of ambitionClimate goals in the Netherlands need to be adapted to be in line with new Paris goals • By 2020o Shutdown of all coal power plants
• By 2025o 100% renewable electricityo All new cars must be 100% EV
• By 2035o No more houses heated by gaso No gasoline and diesel cars on the roado 100% renewable energyo Radical changes in industry and greenhouse sector to achieve zero
emissions
Niklas Höhne, [email protected] www.newclimate.org
Conclusions