what drives future-how

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2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.


What Drives the Future

Howard CharneyCisco Expo KSA

5 December 2011


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Trying to predict the future is like tryindrive down a country road at night wlights while looking out the back wind


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1850 1950 20001750

1%

2%


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The Five Great TechnologyRevolutions of Modern Times

Age of IT athe Intern

IndustrialRevolution

Age of Steamand Railways

Age ofSteel

Age of Oil andthe Automobile

1771 1830 1875 1908 1971 2011


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WORK LIVE

PLAY LEARN


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Thomas Kuhn,University of California, Berkeley 1964

"one conceptualworld view is

replaced by another."


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The Transistor The Telegraph The Telephone The PrograMicroproce


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Drakes Folly


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10-6

10-4

10-2

1

102

104

106

108

1010

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1

Electromechanical Relay Vacuum Tube Transistor

From The Singularity Is Near, by Ray Kurzweil


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What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact sthat human life will be irreversibly transformed.

Ray Kurzweil


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1850 1950 20001750

1%

2%

3%

Exponential Growth Ahead?


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More data wascreated during any 48-hour period last yearthan by ALL ofhumanity during thepast 30-thousandyears.


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where everything

is suffused withintelligence and

communications

and peopleeverywherehave

access to newcapabilities


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Small photos courtesy of Microsoft

RFID application trameets requirements


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Flexible, self-healing wireless mesh networks already monitor livestock, forests, and


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India bought 100,000 of these tablets for US$48 from a firm in and will resell them to Indian students for US$25


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4 GB Memory = 33,000 times the first App


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Off-the-shelf copowerful compuexcellent netwo

capabilities


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Pervasive

Communicationsis the REALLY new paradig


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Queens University Belfast is working on

body-to-body wireless networks


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Next: wearable electronic patc

flexible, ultra-thin, skin-lik


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Berlin Brain Computer Interface

A dream come true: Michael Tangermann flips those levers by just ththem at the Technical University of Berlin.


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During the 21st

Century we mayexperience20,000 years ofprogress


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Economic Impacts of Broad

A 10 percent increase in high-speedInternet access increases economic

growth by 1.3 percent


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A U.S. study has shownthat the increasein alocal economy was10

times the cost of

installing broadband.-- Importance of FTTP to Business Location, Strategiic

Networks Group, 2007


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Over 20 years, a city of 5 million could experience

Source: Connecting Cities: Achieving Sustainability Through Innovation, Nicola Villa and Wolfgang Wagener, Cisco IBSG

City

Revenues

+$15B

Energy

Efficiency

+30%

New j

375,

GDP

Growth

9.5%


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George Akerlof Robert J. Shiller

Social Networking as a Powerful Economic


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2 of 5 young employeeswould accept a lower-paying job with more

social media flexibility &work mobility.

Cisco Connected World Technology Report


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CompoundProductivity Growth

1

If productivity

grows 10% everyyear, it can doublein 7 years

At 10%

2 3 4 5 6 7

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%

At 5%

At 3%

Years


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Rapid Productivity Gains Can Rathe Standard of Living for Peopl

Around the World


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Charles Kettering

We should all beconcerned about thefuture because we willhave to spend the rest

of our lives there.Inventor of the spark plug, the automatictransmission, safety glass, quick-dryingautomobile paint, Freon, and manyother innovations.


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Shokran jazeelan.

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