what drives future-how

Upload: yakasiri-sujatha

Post on 05-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    1/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    What Drives the Future

    Howard CharneyCisco Expo KSA

    5 December 2011

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    2/53

    Trying to predict the future is like tryindrive down a country road at night wlights while looking out the back wind

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    3/53

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    4/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    1850 1950 20001750

    1%

    2%

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    5/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    The Five Great TechnologyRevolutions of Modern Times

    Age of IT athe Intern

    IndustrialRevolution

    Age of Steamand Railways

    Age ofSteel

    Age of Oil andthe Automobile

    1771 1830 1875 1908 1971 2011

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    6/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    WORK LIVE

    PLAY LEARN

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    7/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Thomas Kuhn,University of California, Berkeley 1964

    "one conceptualworld view is

    replaced by another."

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    8/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    The Transistor The Telegraph The Telephone The PrograMicroproce

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    9/53

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    10/53 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    11/53 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Drakes Folly

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    12/53 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    13/53 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    14/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    10-6

    10-4

    10-2

    1

    102

    104

    106

    108

    1010

    1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1

    Electromechanical Relay Vacuum Tube Transistor

    From The Singularity Is Near, by Ray Kurzweil

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    15/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact sthat human life will be irreversibly transformed.

    Ray Kurzweil

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    16/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    17/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    1850 1950 20001750

    1%

    2%

    3%

    Exponential Growth Ahead?

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    18/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    19/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    20/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    More data wascreated during any 48-hour period last yearthan by ALL ofhumanity during thepast 30-thousandyears.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    21/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    where everything

    is suffused withintelligence and

    communications

    and peopleeverywherehave

    access to newcapabilities

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    22/53

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    23/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    24/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Small photos courtesy of Microsoft

    RFID application trameets requirements

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    25/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Flexible, self-healing wireless mesh networks already monitor livestock, forests, and

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    26/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    27/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    India bought 100,000 of these tablets for US$48 from a firm in and will resell them to Indian students for US$25

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    28/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    4 GB Memory = 33,000 times the first App

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    29/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Off-the-shelf copowerful compuexcellent netwo

    capabilities

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    30/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Pervasive

    Communicationsis the REALLY new paradig

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    31/53

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    32/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    33/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Queens University Belfast is working on

    body-to-body wireless networks

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    34/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Next: wearable electronic patc

    flexible, ultra-thin, skin-lik

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    35/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    36/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    37/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Berlin Brain Computer Interface

    A dream come true: Michael Tangermann flips those levers by just ththem at the Technical University of Berlin.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    38/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    39/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    40/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    41/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    During the 21st

    Century we mayexperience20,000 years ofprogress

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    42/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Economic Impacts of Broad

    A 10 percent increase in high-speedInternet access increases economic

    growth by 1.3 percent

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    43/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    A U.S. study has shownthat the increasein alocal economy was10

    times the cost of

    installing broadband.-- Importance of FTTP to Business Location, Strategiic

    Networks Group, 2007

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    44/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Over 20 years, a city of 5 million could experience

    Source: Connecting Cities: Achieving Sustainability Through Innovation, Nicola Villa and Wolfgang Wagener, Cisco IBSG

    City

    Revenues

    +$15B

    Energy

    Efficiency

    +30%

    New j

    375,

    GDP

    Growth

    9.5%

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    45/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    George Akerlof Robert J. Shiller

    Social Networking as a Powerful Economic

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    46/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    47/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    2 of 5 young employeeswould accept a lower-paying job with more

    social media flexibility &work mobility.

    Cisco Connected World Technology Report

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    48/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    CompoundProductivity Growth

    1

    If productivity

    grows 10% everyyear, it can doublein 7 years

    At 10%

    2 3 4 5 6 7

    100%

    75%

    50%

    25%

    0%

    At 5%

    At 3%

    Years

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    49/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Rapid Productivity Gains Can Rathe Standard of Living for Peopl

    Around the World

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    50/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    51/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

    Charles Kettering

    We should all beconcerned about thefuture because we willhave to spend the rest

    of our lives there.Inventor of the spark plug, the automatictransmission, safety glass, quick-dryingautomobile paint, Freon, and manyother innovations.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    52/53

    2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

  • 7/31/2019 What Drives Future-how

    53/53

    Shokran jazeelan.