what happened the election of 2010. clearly stated learning objectives identify and describe the...
TRANSCRIPT
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What Happened
The Election of 2010
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Clearly Stated Learning Objectives
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2010 Election.
• Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.
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2010 PART 2What comes around, goes around?
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The House Results
• GOP Gets– 100% of leaning GOP
Seats (29)– 30 of 42 Tossups– 6 “safe/leaning”
Democratic seats
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The Senate Results
• No Decapitation of Reid
• No Biden Seat
• The Democrats Hold
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Homeostasis
• Government tends to disappoint
• We move back to correct parties that go too far
• Exposure
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The Nationalized Election
• National factors trumped local factors for the third time
• This time around, these factors favored the GOP
• This Hurts Incumbents
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Issues and 2010
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The Most Important Issue of 2008
• Obama misread the 2008 electorate
• The Most important issue of 2008 went unresolved
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The Issues of 2010
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THE ECONOMYThe Primary Issue
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A Referendum on the Economy
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Unemployment
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Who is to Blame?
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DEBT AND STIMULUS
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The National Debt on Election Day 2008
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The National Debt on 11/2/2010
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Budget Deficits and Record Spending
• 2009 Budget Deficit was over 1.4 Trillion
• 2010 at 1.3 Trillion
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Voters wanted deficit reduction
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The Stimulus Package
• Success– Potentially Staved off a
second depression
• Problems– High Price Tag– Did not meet
expectations
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Voters are Split on its Effectiveness
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THE HEALTH CARE LAW
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Opinion Remains Divided
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A REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT OBAMA
The Man and His Policies
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President Obama’s Popularity
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On Election Day: A Referendum
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On Election Day: The Policy Dichotomy
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THE TEA PARTYThe X factor in 2010
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The Tea Party Movement• Unique in that they
do not want anything from government
• Also no Formal/ Hierarchical organization
• Very Motivated
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The Tea Party was unified in its Anger at Government
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The Tea Party Tapped into Angry Voters
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The Tea party was a Popular Movement
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With Motivated Voters on Election Day
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THE SENATEThe Results
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Policy
2010-2012
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Senate Gridlock is Likely • Fillibusters from the
Minority Party
• Unwillingness to pass House bills from the Majority Party.
• A lack of moderates to broker deals
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Policy In the House• The GOP has majority,
but it will not be easy– Integrating the Tea Party
– Facing an ideologically homogenous Democratic Party
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What Not To Expect
• Climate Change Legislation
• Comprehensive Immigration Reform
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What Not To Expect: Social Security Reform
• The Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2037
• Benefits will be cut by 22% at that time
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REPEALING HEALTH CARENot Going to Happen Through Congress
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“We will immediately take action to repeal this law.”
Republican “Pledge To America”
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H.R. 2: Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act
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S.AMDT 13
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The Electoral College
(Obama won)
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The Nature and legitimacy of the Campaign
• A relatively mild campaign
• An election without a question of legitimacy
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The Electoral College Results
• The National Popular vote remains irrelevant
• 270 Electoral Votes remains the Goal
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The Final Tally
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The Electoral College
• 51 separate elections
• Article II, Section I allows the states to decide how they choose their electors
• How the states decide
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Campaign Strategy under the Electoral College
• Race for Electoral Votes
• Not a race for Popular votes
• Draw the map and stick to it
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Resource Allocation
• Time and Money are best spent where they will give you a R.O.I.
• Many states do not see the candidates
• Fewer than 20 states in any given election
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The minimum winning coalition
• 270 is all that is necessary– 11 states can give you 271– This puts the emphasis on big states
• Can you win or will you win?
• Remember opportunity costs regarding $ and time.
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The Basic Strategy
• Win your state and Your v-p’s state
• Do not spend time where you will win
• Do not spend time where you will lose
• Electoral Votes, matter nothing else does
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Geography and the Electoral College
• Democrats keep their safe areas
• Democrats Make In-Roads into Republican Territory
• Republicans hold-on, barely
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Regional Changes
• The Battle For the South
• New England becomes more solidly democratic
• The Mountain West
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Voter Turnout
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California
• The Electoral College Crown
• Democrats Cannot win without it
• Population is flatlining
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