what happens!
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What Happens!. Mike Menkus Professional Engineer (PE021061) February 2012. Cobb County Citizen’s Public Safety Academy Graduate – 2011. Researcher & Author. Professional Engineer. What Happens!. What Happens to Crime After Changes in Carry Laws Drill Down From National to Campus Views - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
What Happens!
Mike MenkusProfessional
Engineer(PE021061)
February 2012
Cobb County Citizen’s Public Safety Academy Graduate – 2011
Researcher & Author
Professional Engineer
What Happens!
• What Happens to Crime After Changes in Carry Laws
• Drill Down From National to Campus Views
• What Are The Characteristics of Active Killer Events
• Time Frames and Predicted Causalities
• What Happens In A Mumbai Swarm Attack
• Licensees - The Solution
Changes In Carry Laws
Changes in Carry Laws
• FBI Uniform Crime Report Data
• A Better Measurement & Method– Aggravated Assault PLUS Robbery
• An attack by one person upon another with a weapon
• Taking of property by the threat or use of force
– Does Not Include breakouts of Murder and Forcible Rape
– Focus on What Happens Around Change
• Guns Good Bans Bad– 12 examples of the impact of carry law
changes– Economic Value of the changes and
Constitutional Carry– http://tinyurl.com/gunsgood
United States – National ViewMore Americans Carrying Firearms For Self Defense
# of Licensees from 10 states – FL, GA, KS, ND, OH, SC, TX, UT, VA
United StatesAggravated Assault + Robbery Rate
vs.# of Licensed Gun Carriers
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ag
gra
vate
d A
ssau
lt +
Ro
bb
ery
(#/1
00K
)
800,000
1,300,000
1,800,000
2,300,000
2,800,000
# o
f L
icen
sed
Gu
n C
arri
ers
(FL
, GA
, KS
, MI,
ND
, OH
, SC
, TX
, UT
,VA
)
Aggravated Assault + Robbery (#/100,000)
# of Licensed Gun Carriers
18% REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery
While # of Licensed Gun Carriers Doubles
Georgia – State ViewGeorgia Expands Allowed Carry Locations (HB89, SB308)
Licensees numbers from Caseload Reports from Probate Judges – 2010 may be revised upward
1998
1999http://www.fbi.gov/filelink.html?file=/ucr/Cius_99/w99tbl05.xls
Table 5Index of Crimeby State, 1999
AreaGEORGIA
Metropolitan Statistical Area Area actually reporting Estimated totalsCities outside metropolitan areas
GeorgiaAggravated Assault + Robbery
(#/100,000 Population)
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ag
gra
vate
d A
ssau
lt +
Ro
bb
ery
250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
430
450
# o
f L
icen
sees
(th
ou
san
ds)
Agg.Assault + Robbery (#/100K) # of Licensees
July 2010 - SB308 Dramatically Expands Where Licensees Can
Carry
# of Licenses Grows By 48% As Carrying In More
Places Allowed (2007 to 2010)
6.6% of Voting Eligible Population Has Carry License
(436,739 Licensees)
July 2008 - HB89 Expands Where
Licensees Can Carry
11% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery
After Expansion of Allowed Carry Locations
(2003-2007 to 2009-2010)
1994 – Georgia State University1,000’ School Safety Zone Enacted
19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998
Georgia StateAggravated Assault + Robbery Rates
(#/100K Population)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Agg
rava
ted
Ass
ault
+ R
obbe
ry
April 1994 - 1000' School Safety Zone
322% Average INCREASE In (Aggravated Assault + Robbery)
(1985-1993 to 1998-2009)
Transition Period
July 2010 -Georgia Repeals 1000' Zone
18% Average REDUCTION from 2005 - 2009 to 2010
Guns Allowed Within 1000' of Campus
Guns Prohibited Within 1000' of Campus
Likely Reporting Errors
2006 – Utah Universities & CollegesCarry On Campus Allowed – Including Dorms
Utah Colleges & UniversitiesAggravated Assault + Robbery
(#/100,000 Enrollment)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Agg
rava
ted
Ass
aul
t +
Rob
bery
Sept. 2006 - Utah Supreme Court Ends Univ. of Utah's Gun Ban.
Guns Prohibited On Campus
31% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery
(2003-2006 to 2007-2010)
Guns Allowed On Campus
2003 – Colorado State – Ft. CollinsCarry On Campus Allowed By Licensees
http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_00/00crime213.pdf
Colorado State UniversityAggravated Assault + Robbery
(#/100,000 Enrollment)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Agg
rava
ted
Ass
ault
+ R
obbe
ry
May 2003 - Guns Permitted on CSU Campus
47% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery
(1998-2002 to 2004-2010)
Guns Allowed On Campus
Guns Prohibited On Campus
Transition Period
Big Points
• More People Carrying In More Locations Reduces Crime
• Licensees Are Carrying Responsibly– Irresponsible behavior would show up in stats
• Economic Benefit to Georgia of reduced crime is $1.1B/year
Factors Influencing Crime Reductions
• Breathless Media Coverage (Publicity)• More references to wild west & blood filled streets the greater
reduction
• Ease of Carrying After Change (Opportunity)• More hurdles and harassments to carrying the less reduction
– Training, notification of LE, signage, forced disarm situations, etc.• Likelihood of being rousted and hassled by LE
• Number of Carriers Carrying (Numbers)• More carriers carrying the greater reduction• Georgia Licensees – 6.6% of voting eligible population and
growing!• % of Gun Ownership of Democrats and Women Increased by 8% and 7%
in 2011, per Gallup
Active Killer Events
Rapid Mass MurderComposite Timeline
Atlanta PD High-Priority Response Time = 11 mins.
Atlanta Journal Constitution - 2009http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/atlanta/stories/2009/03/22/atlanta_police_response.html#comment
tend - Killer Under LE Control
911 Dispatch Suicide Prior To LE Arrival
0 5 10
LE Arrives On Scene
TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 6 MinutesLE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes
TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 13 Minutes
5 mins.6 mins.
t0 - Killer Decides To Begin
2 mins.
Attack Ends
X
Virginia Tech – Norris Hall - 2007
…. and 16 months later
Roanoke Times – January 31, 2006
Suicide Prior To LE Contact tend - Killer Under LE Control - 17 mins. After Suicide
0 5 10 15 20 25
LE Enters Building After Assembling Team and Breaching Chained DoorsLE Arrives On Scene
Killed = 32, Wounded = 25
Attack Ends911 Dispatch
T0 - Killer Decides To Begin
23 mins.2 mins. 3 mins.
From Nearby Locations
LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 5 MinutesTOTAL VICTIM TIME = 11 Minutes
TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 28 Minutes
X
Westroads Mall, Omaha NE - 2007
Sign on Entrance To Westroads Mall
Photo Taken Hours After Attack
911 Dispatch Suicide Prior To LE Arrival tend - Killer Under LE Control - 24 mins. After Arrival
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
LE Arrives On Scene
TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 6 Minutes
LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes
TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 32 MinutesKilled = 8, Wounded = 4
24 mins.
t0 - Killer Decides To Begin
2 mins. 6 mins.
Attack Ends
X
Red Lake School, MN - 2005
CNN – March 23, 2005
911 Dispatch Suicide 1 min After LE Contact
0 5 10
tend - Killer Under LE Control
LE Arrives On Scene
Killed = 10, Wounded = 7
t0 - Killer Decides To Begin
TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 9 MinutesLE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes
Attack Ends
2 mins. 6 mins.
Jack May Counter-Attacks With Pencil
TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 9 Minutes
X
Tucson AZ - 2010
Bold, rapid and aggressive action, by even a solo actor, has been and is now the most effective countermeasure to the active killer.
Ron Borsch
Attack Ends Two Men Tackle Killer
tend - Killer Under LE Control
1m0 5
LE Arrives On Scene
TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 2 Minutes
TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 4 Minutes
3 mins.
T0 - Killer Decides To Begin
911 Dispatch
Killed = 6, Wounded = 13
LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 4 Minutes
X
Stop Watch Of Death– Ron Borsch – Law Enforcement Officer – 17 year SWAT team member
• Southeast Area Law Enforcement Regional Training Academy-Bedford OH
– Research Data Set• Nearly 100 “rapid mass murder” episodes in which 4 or more slayings have occurred, in the same location,
within 20 minutes, done by individuals not related to drugs or gangs, and in public places
– Findings
• Stop Watch of Death = 4.7 killed/wounded per minute
• Timing– Rapid Mass Murder Attack Times average 6 minutes. (t0 to Attack End)
– Law Enforcement Arrival Times average 8 minutes ((t0 to LE Arrival)
• Who Resists and Stops Sprees:– 67% - armed or unarmed solo CIVILIANS – 33% - solo and paired law enforcement officers– 0% - multiple officer formations
Used With Permission Of Ron Borsch – SEALE Bedford OH - [email protected]
Rapid Mass MurderStop Watch Of Death
The Faster The Attack Is Stopped, The More Lives Saved!! – Ron Borsch
Va Tech - Norris Hall
Tucson AZ
Northern Illinois U
Westroads Mall
Red Lake School
Fort Hood
Luby's
Pinelake Nursing Home
Brookfield Church
Jonesboro AR School
0
20
40
60
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14Time of Incident (minutes)
# o
f D
ea
d a
nd
Wo
un
ded
911 Dispatch
LE Arrives On Scene
Stop Watch of Death Line - 4.7 / min
Modus Operadi of Active KillersFrom Ron Borsch’s Research
• Nearly every active killer incident on record in the USA has occurred in so-called "gun-free" or "zero weapons tolerance" zone
• The Killer’s primary objective is to produce as high a body count as possible in a shortest period of time, before LE arrives (less than 8 mins)
• Active Killer fears police and armed resistance
• Suicide is the end plan for 90% of the killers
• Never take hostages, non-compliant to warnings, and they do not negotiate
Used With Permission Of Ron Borsch – SEALE Bedford OH - [email protected]
Big Points• Time is not our friend - Passivity Kills!
• Every minute before Self Defense is applied is the potential for 5 additional victims
• Attacks last 6 minutes and only ends when killer decides or encounters resistance
• Law Enforcement, handicapped by time, distance and delayed notification, will arrive in 2 minutes AFTER the attack ends. Its rare that incidents are stopped in progress by LE
• Attack speed & toll is accelerating
• We need to be our own first responders!
Our Options During Rapid Mass Murder
• Hunker Down– Retreat, Hide, and Die– Virginia Tech
• Flee– Potential to run into ambush– Columbine (crickets)
• Fight– Proven Option To Stop The
Killing– Change In Mindset– Tucson, Appalachia School of
Law
Last Resort Active Shooter Survival Measures
by Alon Stivi - http://tinyurl.com/ACT911(8 min youtube video)
Attack Countermeasures Training
www.actcert.com
Mumbai Swarm(Mass Causality Terrorism)
Mumbai SwarmMultiple Location – Multiple Attacker
Assault• 5 two-man teams
• Simple Tactic Attack, Retreat, Repeat
• Ten Targets including a school, restaurants, hotels, a Jewish center, and public transit terminal.
• Used explosives as diversions and modern communications technology to coordinate and pulse attacks
Mumbai SwarmWhat Will Happen Here?
• 911 Overload – A system conditioned to one-major event will collapse into chaos with 5 simultaneous major events at changing locations.
• Gridlock – Everyone will flee. Pick up children. Get out of kill zone. Think Halloween traffic but infinitely worse.
• Complete Chaos – Twitter/Social Web used to panic public, redirect LE, and spread unfounded rumors.
Under These Conditions, LE Will Be Impotent
Licensees - The Solution
Licensees - The Solution
• Be An Undesirable Target – Don’t be a soft target like gun free India– Learn from Israel’s experience that armed parents and teachers
discourage school attacks – Redirect assailants elsewhere to seek defenseless victims– Repeal carry location prohibitions, especially schools
• Be A Hard Target– Empower immediate self-defense by Licensees
• On Location – At Initiation of Attack (t0)
• Better Tactical and Location Knowledge – Enable distributed response (armed Georgians) which can defeat
swarm tactics
• Empower Citizens To Protect Themselves and Children – There are not enough LE Officers to defend every school nor will
they arrive in time.– Parents and teachers can fill the void and a vested interest
Time Is Our Enemy – 4.7 Killed/Wounded Per Minute
Questions?