what is a critical material? - mmta · what is a critical material? thomas e. graedel . yale...
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What is a Critical Material?
Thomas E. Graedel
Yale University
May 22, 2012
Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
RE
PGM
Ge Nb
W
The European Commission Criticality Assessment, 2010
Random Results in Criticality Assessment EC IDA IW NEDO NRC Oakd.
Hollins South Korea
Cu No No Maybe -- No No --
As -- -- -- -- -- No --
Se -- -- Yes No -- No
Ag No No Maybe -- -- No --
Te No No -- No -- Yes No
Au -- -- Maybe
-- -- No --
The Yale Approach
to Criticality
High
Low
Low High Supply Risk
Impa
ct o
f Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
The Criticality Matrix and the “Region of Danger”
Region of Danger
The Three-Axis Criticality Evaluation Concept
T. Graedel et al., Env. Sci. Technol., 46, 1063-1070, 2012.
VSR
I S
RI PT SP SA ERCS
AI
PR
SR
GTE S&R GP
DT CF PPI HDI WGI-PV GSC
Supply Risk
Vuln
erab
ility
to S
uppl
y R
estr
icti
on
HH ES
EI
Elements to be Analyzed in the Criticality Project
Supply Risk Axis – Corporate and National Components
Supp
ly R
isk
M
ediu
m-te
rm
Policy Potential Index ½
Social and Regulatory ⅓ Human Development Index
(adjusted for Pop. density)
½
Geological, Technological, and
Economic ⅓
Companion Metal Fraction ½
Depletion Time (with Reserves) ½
Geopolitical ⅓
Worldwide Governance
Indicators: Political Stability
½
Global Supply Concentration ½
Weight Weight
Politically unstable nations pose a higher risk of supply restriction
20 40 50 30 60 80 90 100 70 10 0
Transformed Score Scale
2008 Worldwide Governance Indicators – Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism
World Bank – WGI
Measures perceptions of the likelihood that a government will be destabilized or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means
Encompasses social, economic, and political factors associated with underlying vulnerability and economic distress
Environmental Impact
• Evaluates the potential environmental impact of using a metal in modern society
• Based on Ecoinvent database, ReCiPe (H) Endpoint impact methodology (world average normalization)
• Using the following impact category only: - Ecosystems
• Result is a single score for a cradle-to-gate environmental impact assessment
Vulnerability – Corporate Level Vu
lner
abili
ty to
Sup
ply
Res
tric
tion
Cor
pora
te
Importance ⅓
Percent of Revenue Impacted ⅓
Ability to Pass-through Cost Increases
Importance to Corporate Strategy
Substitutability ⅓
Substitute Performance
Substitute Availability
Environmental Impact Ratio
Net Import Reliance Ratio
Components Indicators
Weight Weight
⅓
⅓
Corporate Innovation
Net Import Reliance ½ Susceptibility ⅓
Price Ratio
½
A Sampling of
Criticality Results
Copper Family Criticality - US
Cu
Te
Se
Au
As
Ag
Mean
EI
N. N
assa
r et a
l., E
nv. S
ci. T
echn
ol.,
46, 1
071-
1078
, 201
2
Copper Family Criticality - Global
Cu
Te
Se
Au
As
Ag
Mean
EI
N. N
assa
r et a
l., E
nv. S
ci. T
echn
ol.,
46, 1
071-
1078
, 201
2
A Criticality Analysis for Tin
World Leading Countries in Tin Production
Country Mine production (tonnes)
% of global total
China 115,000 44
Indonesia 60,000 23
Peru 38,000 15
Bolivia 16,000 6
Brazil 12,000 5
Total 261,000 100
Tin Criticality : Generic Methodology
0 20 40 60 80 100 0
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
EI
SR
VS
R
Indicator Values
(utilizes generic substitutes for tin uses)
Geological, Technological, and
Economic Social & Regulatory Geopolitical
SRM
SRM alternative weighting* DTM CF GTEM PPI HDI S&R WGI GSC GP
91 0 46 Tin
mining 60
Tin smelting
65 63 Tin
mining 76 Tin mining 76 76 62 87
Supply Risk Vulnera- bility to Supply Restriction
Importance Substitutability Susceptibility VSRC
RI PT CS I SP SAM ER IRR PR S IR CI SU
87.50 62.50 87.50 79.17 43.75 42.23 12.05 62.50 7.00 32.26 100.00 62.5 81.3 59.2
Indicator Values
(assumes no suitable substitutes exist for tin uses)
Geological, Technological, and
Economic Social & Regulatory Geopolitical
SRM
SRM alternative weighting* DTM CF GTEM PPI HDI S&R WGI GSC GP
91 0 46 Tin
mining 60
Tin smelting
65 63 Tin
mining 76 Tin mining 76 76 62 87
Importance Substitutability Susceptibility VSRC
RI PT CS I SP SAM ER IRR PR S IR CI SU
87.50 62.50 87.50 79.17 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 62.5 81.3 85.8
Supply Risk Vulnera- bility to Supply Restriction
Tin Criticality as a Function of Substitutability
0 20 40 60 80 100 0
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
EI
SR
VS
R
Red: generic substitutes; blue: no suitable substitutes
Supply Risk Axis – Corporate and National Components
Supp
ly R
isk
M
ediu
m-te
rm
Policy Potential Index ½
Social and Regulatory 1/6⅓
Human Development Index
(adjusted for Pop. density)
½
Geological, Technological, and
Economic 2/3⅓ Companion Metal
Fraction ½
Depletion Time (with Reserves) ½
Geopolitical 1/6⅓
Worldwide Governance
Indicators: Political Stability
½
Global Supply Concentration ½
Weight Weight
Tin Criticality – Alternative Weighting of Supply Risk Components
0 20 40 60 80 100 0
50
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
EI
SR
VSR
Blue: no weighting; Red: weighting GP 2/3, GTE 1/6, SR 1/6
Criticality Project Plan – May, 2012
Evaluating Criticality: A Summary
• What is critical to one organization may not be critical to another, and methodologies must take this into account
• Criticality is best regarded as an attribute of degree rather than as a state, and the important information is why a metal’s criticality is what it is, not whether the metal is “critical” or not
• The Yale comprehensive critical metals assessment will be complete by the end of 2012