what is advanced risk management

8/13/2019 What is advanced risk management

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What is Advanced

Project Risk Management?Rubin Jen, P. Eng, PMP

Beyond ExecutionMarch 3, 2011


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About The Speaker

Rubin is a speaker, writer, teacher andconsultant of project management

PM for 15 yrs across several industries Presented at PMI Global Congress, ProjectWorld

Toronto, PMI Ottawa Symposium

Served on board of directors for the PMI

Southern Ontario Chapter from 2005-2007

Project Management training on Risk, Scopeand PMP


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Agenda

1. What is Advanced Project RiskManagement?

2. How can it help?3. What should I know?

4. How can I use and implement it?


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Whats Your Opinion?

What do you think Advanced Project RiskManagement (APRM) is?


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Different Ideas around APRM

Risk Database

Probabilisticanalysis

Monte Carlo Insurance

Attack Risk

Visualization

Confidence

Levels

Delphi

Opportunity

Management

RiskCommunication IssuesAnalysis

Bubble

Graphs

Quantitative

Analysis

Risk

Project

Manager

Audits

Predictive

Metrics

Risk

Breakdown

StructureRange

Estimates

Risk

Awareness

Risk

Tolerance

Calibration

Qualitative

Analysis

Lessons

Learned

Urgency

Risk

Reporting Enterprise Risk

Management

Monitoring

& Control


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Common Perception

Most Project Managers would likely considerAPRM as deeper in Risk Analysis

Software analysis (Monte Carlo, probabilisticanalysis)

Quantification, cost analysis

Expected Monetary Value, decision trees

What about Risk Planning, Identification,Response and Monitoring & Control?


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Risk Management

Risk:

The effect of uncertainty on objectives

Risk Management: The identification, assessment, and

prioritization of risks followed by coordinatedand economical application of resources to

minimize, monitor, and control the probabilityand/or impact of unfortunate events


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Project Risk Management

Project Risk Management:

The processes of

conducting riskmanagement planning,identification, analysis,response planning and

monitoring & control ona project


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What is Advanced?

dictionary.com:

1. placed ahead or forward

2. ahead or far or further along in progress,complexity, knowledge, skill, etc

3. pertaining to or embodying ideas, practices,attitudes, etc., taken as being more

enlightened or liberal than the standardized,established, or traditional


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Advanced Project Management

The use of tools, techniques and practicesthat are above the standard, to enable better

decisions and more effective projectmanagement

Different tools

Different techniques

Different processes

Different level of thinking
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Seurat-La_Parade_detail.jpg


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Proposed APRM Principles

1. Further reduction of uncertainty

2. More effective response plans

3. Higher level competency and skills


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Reduction of Uncertainty

Greater clarity and understanding of risks

More detailed analysis

Uncover hidden information and trends

Better Assessment


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More Effective Response Plans

Improved prioritization

Greater option development

More effective project management

Better Decisions


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Competency and Skills

Risk ownership

Training

Risk awareness Increased teamwork, buy-in & performance

Better Performance


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What should I know?


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Define Your Objectives

Better decisions

Tools & techniques, processes, decision tree

Better performanceVisualization, buy-in

Team awareness

Better assessment Monte Carlo

Timeframe/urgency


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APRM Outcomes

Better Decisions

Increased identification

Delphi technique Risk audits

Risk breakdown structures

Attacking risk

Mitigation and contingency plans

Decision trees


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APRM Outcomes

Better Performance

Risk management training

Team involvement Risk awareness

Team meetings

Visualization

Visual Ishikawa Risk Technique (VIRT)

Heat map/bubble chart


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APRM Outcomes

Better Assessment

Monte Carlo simulation

Increased subjective range assessment Confidence level estimation

Range estimates

Probabilistic/statistical analysis

Weighted scoring

Urgency


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Implementation Costs

Risk management has been a difficult realmto show ROI

Some risk tools & techniques can cost a lotbut provide very little improvement in return

Its not just about software


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How Can I Use It?


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Choosing APRM

Which parameters provide the maximumeffectiveness for the minimum amount of

time? (biggest bang for the buck?)1. Techniques that are simpler and practical

2. Knowledge that can be easily shared andexplained to others

3. Techniques that can involve others

4. Visualization

5. Better risk prioritization


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Better Decision Techniques

Simple

Technique

Knowledge

Transfer

Collaborative

Techniques

Graphical

Prioritization

Increased identification

Delphi technique

Risk audits

Risk breakdown structures

Attacking risk

Mitigation/contingency plans

Decision trees


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Better Performance Techniques

Simple

Technique

Knowledge

Transfer

Collaborative

Techniques

Graphical

Prioritization

Training

Team involvement

Risk awareness

Team meetings

VIRT

Heat map/bubble chart


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Better Assessment Techniques

Simple

Technique

Knowledge

Transfer

Collaborative

Techniques

Graphical

Prioritization

Monte Carlo

Increased range

Confidence level

Range estimates

Probabilistic analysis

Weighted scoring

Urgency


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Implementing APRM

Understand and assess risk stakeholders

Champions

By-standers End users

Continual education and communication

See results creates buy-in Create mini case studies of successes

Know each techniques implementation costs


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Are We Done Yet?


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Summary

There are a number of ways to be"advanced" but don't confine yourself to

simply analysis tools Utilizing APRM is like a project management

process:

Understand what your needs are, then choose

an appropriate technique(s)


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Contact Information

Name: Rubin Jen, P. Eng, PMP

Email: [email protected]

Phone: (416) 618-1734

what is advanced risk management

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