What is Strategic Habitat Conservation?A structured way to critically thinking about what we do and why we do it; or

2. Setting explicit objectives for populations and then systematically figuring out how to achieve them most efficiently using our own resources and by working with partners.

WMD Goal32,000 Recruits

Everything else is just detailsSetting clear objectives and then systematically figuring out how to achieve them most efficiently using our own resources and by working with partners.Can we all agree that this is a good thing?

Why did I start by mentioning populations?The Service was created to conserve species that regularly traverse political/jurisdictional boundaries, are covered by international treaties, and/or or require a multi-state or international approach to conservation.

This remains our mandate although we do many essential things like habitat management, education and outreach, law enforcement, etc. as actions to help us fulfill our mandate.Can we all agree to these statements?Thus our mandate is the conservation of populations.

Habitat management is an essential tool in conserving populations of many species.

What about species that arent limited by habitat or for which there is no habitat solution?Give me an example The basic tenets of strategically (efficiently) conserving these species populations are the same as those in SHC. Try to think about these examples as we talk about each element of SHC and see if it doesnt fit.

Partnerships are often a way to get more done and increase efficiency. While they can be very useful, they are not an objective under SHC!Our objective is the conservation of populations.

Habitat management (often through partnerships) is an essential tool in conserving populations of many species.

Setting explicit objectives for populations and then systematically figuring out how to achieve them most efficiently using our own resources and by working with partners.Well call these mission-oriented objectives

Reestablish and maintain three viable sub-populations of LA Black Bear in the Tensas Basin, Red River Backwater, and Atchafalaya Basin of Louisiana.Well call these mission-oriented objectives ..How do they differ, and what are the advantages/disadvantages of each?

Reestablish and maintain three viable sub-populations of LA Black Bear in the Tensas Basin, Red River Backwater, and Atchafalaya Basin of Louisiana.Protect and restore 20,000 acres of bottomland hardwoods in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley.Easily measured (tracked)

Doesnt matter where the acres are protected and restored

No predicted consequences of success versus failure, therefore no justification for increased program resources.

No clear ending point (when have you done enough and move on to another conservation issue?)

Doesnt promote mission-oriented accountabilityRequires biological info to measure progress

Requires predictions of population response to habitat to decide where to protect and restore (where we deliver habitat determines how much is required).

An objective foundation for deciding how much habitat we need (and therefore $$$ needed)

Outcomes relative to our mission are clear, as are consequences of success versus failure.

Promotes mission-oriented accountabilityDo we agree that, conceptually, mission-based objectives are preferable toactivity-based objectives?

Well talk about the attributes of mission-oriented objectives more in a little while. For now, try to think of one relevant to your job.Everything else is just detailsRemember, the purpose of this iterative process is simply to helpus attain out objectives as efficiently as possible.

In other words, help us conserve landscapes capable ofsustaining species at desired levels with the limited resources we canmuster.

The Basic SHC Framework is an Iterative, 5-Element Adaptive ProcessConservationDelivery

If youre really into details No single office or even programis expected to perform all of these functions.

SHC is not applied office by office.It is a Service-wide approach to conservation.

Strategic habitat conservation BenefitsEfficiencyTransparencyand CredibilityStrategic ResearchAnd Monitoring(Quality Assuranceand R&D)CommunicationGreaterReach,Capacity andLeadershipAccountabilityAttributes of any SuccessfulCorporation (or Govt Agency)

SHC isfocused on functional change.

SHC is notdirected at organizational change.

Lets think about modelsThink of some examples that you already use about how populations relate to habitat.Where you bring together what you know, suspect, and/or believe about how a species relates to its habitat and express it (write it down, etc.) in measurable termsModels force us to be explicit about these relationships and therefore force us to confront our uncertainties.

Lets think about modelsA simplified description of reality that aids in decision making.

No model makes perfect predictions but they can still be useful if we understand their limitations.

Every parameter in a model must be measurable what do I mean?

Relate the population to the limiting factor.

Can be based on data (empirical models) or experience (conceptual or experienced-based models)

Empirical models can be based on existing data sets (if the data is appropriate) or new data sets.

Collecting New Data for Models

REGRESSION (NB) ON LANDSSCAPE ONLY: Grasshopper Sparrow

Negative binomial regression Number of obs = 952 LR chi2(2) = 86.85Dispersion = mean Prob > chi2 = 0.0000Log likelihood = -1143.2436 Pseudo R2 = 0.0366------------------------------------------------------------------------------ true_dens | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.Interval]-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- grass4b | .0177522 .0020034 8.86 0.000 .0138257 .0216787 trees4b | -.0280443 .011417 -2.46 0.014 -.0504212 -.0056674 _cons | -.8051343 .0956861 -8.41 0.000 -.9926756 -.617593-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- /lnalpha | .4074185 .1116098 .1886673 .6261697-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- alpha | 1.502933 .1677421 1.207639 1.870433------------------------------------------------------------------------------Likelihood-ratio test of alpha=0: chibar2(01) = 300.73 Prob>=chibar2 = 0.000

Modeling with Existing Data SetsPresence/absence of booming grounds with at least 2 males section (not QQ)consecutive years counts as 1 pointData from MPCS/MNDNR 1996-2004Compared with random, non-b.g. locations624 booming grounds715 random sections

+ 0.0461 * %(grass+hay) 1 mile - 0.0699 * % trees mile - 0.0359 * % crop 2 miles - 0.00123 * distance (m) to grass+ 0.00033 * distance (m) to trees

- 0.1906 * # woody patches 1 mile

- 0.00002 * X UTMFinal Model

Experienced-based models

Nest SuccessPercent Grass in a 2 mile Radius10 + (-1.0 * Percent)1.5 + (0.665 * Percent)10 + (0.25 * Percent)Experienced-based models

Once we apply an empirical or experience-based model to spatial data we call the result a spatially-explicit model (SEM). This is where GIS comes in.

FINAL MODEL

+ 0.0461 * %(grass+hay) 1 mile - 0.0699 * % trees mile - 0.0359 * % crop 2 miles - 0.00123 * distance (m) to grass+ 0.00033 * distance (m) to trees

- 0.1906 * # woody patches 1 mile

- 0.00002 * X UTM

Grasshopper SparrowRange: 0 0.83 birds/haREGRESSION (NB) ON LANDSSCAPE ONLY: Grasshopper Sparrow

Negative binomial regression Number of obs = 952 LR chi2(2) = 86.85Dispersion = mean Prob > chi2 = 0.0000Log likelihood = -1143.2436 Pseudo R2 = 0.0366------------------------------------------------------------------------------ true_dens | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf.Interval]-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- grass4b | .0177522 .0020034 8.86 0.000 .0138257 .0216787 trees4b | -.0280443 .011417 -2.46 0.014 -.0504212 -.0056674 _cons | -.8051343 .0956861 -8.41 0.000 -.9926756 -.617593-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- /lnalpha | .4074185 .1116098 .1886673 .6261697-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- alpha | 1.502933 .1677421 1.207639 1.870433------------------------------------------------------------------------------Likelihood-ratio test of alpha=0: chibar2(01) = 300.73 Prob>=chibar2 = 0.000

Predicting Mallard Pairs on WetlandsPairs = 2.718[-0.63+0.55(lnsize)+a]

On the Issue of Conservation EfficiencySHC is predicated on the idea that different landscapes have different potentials to affect populations and that managers are willing and able to prioritize their actions.Breeding duck pair density,Grant County, MN40 pair/mi22 pair/mi240 pairs / 2 pairs = a 20 fold increase in management efficiencyif management costs at thetwo sites are equal.

Outcome-based Monitoring: Assessing Program AccomplishmentsPairs = 2.718[y+ (lnsize)+a]Total PairsRestored = 25.7

Pheasants- WetlandsMigrantShorebirdsBlack TernsA portfolio of SEMs provides a rapid response capability toprogrammatic information (strategic targeting) needs

USDA - Farm Service AgencyUSDA - Natural Resource Conservation ServiceU.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceMinnesota Department of Natural ResourcesMinnesota Board of Water and Soil ResourcesDucks UnlimitedPheasants Forever

This is the basic SHC framework that the MBP, JVs and others promoting and striving to implement . It consists of 5 elements activities will be going on each of the elements all the time so this is not a linear sequence of events.

Biological planning spins off priority species, population objectives and a synthesis of applied science summarized as models these are valuable communication tools but they also inform the other SHC elements.

Conservation design is the process of applying models to spatial data this is important because habiat conservation always has a geographic component where is an important questions. Habitat objectives and programmatic priority areas are important products of this element.

*Conservation delivery is what this is all about efficiently attaining a population response although this is usually the role of the NWRS, PFW, and States.

Every management action is based on some degree of uncertainty about the outcome. Monitoring to assess accomplishments and testing assumptions are essential to making future decisions more reliable.

This diagram may look familiar. SHC is simply a specific form of adaptive resource management.

* = advance slide

This is just a more detailed schematic of the same iterative SHC process. You should have a handout of this slide for future reference,

Remember this is not intended to be a linear sequence of events do step 1 then 2 then 3, etc. Activities are going on in many of these boxes at the same time. The important idea is that in an iterative process, all of the major elements have to be represented biological planning, conservation design, conservation delivery, outcome-based monitoring and assumption-driven research to get the full benefit of the SHC framework. If you leave an element out, the cycle is broken and our effectiveness suffers.Conducted an analysis that provides a tool for evaluating various parcels. We set habitat objectives mainly as a tool for communication to the public and elected officials. Some areas of the landscape have more potential to affect populations than others. When we work in these areas, our efficiency is higher.Outcome-based monitoring is the 5th element of SHC. The same models developed in Biological Planning and used to create SEMs in Conservation Design can be used to assess actual management accomplishments.

*This is a 10 km2 area of west central Minnesota. The red cross-hatched features are drained wetlands. Some of these are restored each year.

*Our empirical model for pairs / wetland can be used to estimate the increased pair carrying capacity attributed to our private lands wetland restorations.

This kind of accountability related to our mission to conserve populations is increasingly important, although tracking acres and dollars will continue to be important as well.

Counting birds once or twice on restored wetlands tells you little about your actual accomplishments counts have to be replicated many times in space and time. This information can be used to refine our models to improve future planning and accountability.

One function of the MBP may be to produce desk top applications that let habitat managers track their annual performance in terms of population impacts.

* = advance slideSEMs are created for every focal species.

*When we create a portfolio of SEMs that is, when we have them on our shelf we can pull them off and combine them in logical ways to help target conservation programs with specific goals and priorities. In other words, a portfolio of SEMs gives us a rapid response capability to requests for information from Service programs and other agencies.

* = advance slide

The Wetland Reserve Program (WRP) is a good example of a program seeking diverse environmental benefits.

*The role of the MBP and joint ventures is to inform WRP staff about where to get the greatest migratory bird benefits this is leadership in migratory bird conservation.

Moreover, since others groups arent presently able to deliver comparable SEMs for water quality, etc. The information on migratory birds was the most instrumental component in determining relative WRP priority areas shown in this map.

* = advance slide