what is up (and down) with king county river flows?
TRANSCRIPT
What is up (and down) with King County river flows?
WLRD Science SeminarCurtis DeGasperi
King County Water and Land Resources Division
May 5, 2009
Why care about river flows?
• Aquatic and riparian ecosystems are adapted to the magnitude, frequency, timing, and duration of flow
• Humans depend on riverine ecosystem functions and can be affected by the magnitude, frequency, timing, and duration of flow.
Human Impacts on Water Cycle
• Land cover change– Forest management – Urbanization– Channelization
• Water management– Reservoirs (flood control-hydropower)– Irrigation– Water supply
• Climate Change
http://www.psparchives.com/publications/our_work/climate/climate_report/psat_climate2005_report_lowres.pdf
Selected Data
• Daily total precipitation for 9 stations• Daily average discharge from 10 relatively
unregulated USGS gauging stations
9/1/1964 to present710(2,340)
83(32)
12145500Raging River near Fall City
10/1/1929 to present710(2,340)
1,530(590)
12149000Snoqualmie River near Carnation
10/1/1959 to present870(2,860)
971(375)
12144500Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie
10/1/1945 to present1000(3280)
105(40.7)
12115000Cedar River near Cedar Falls
10/1/1931 to present930(1140)
575(220)
12105900Green River at Howard Hanson Dam
10/1/1960 to present1040(3410)
108(41.6)
12143400South Fork Snoqualmie River above Alice Creek
10/1/1961 to present1040(3400)
399(154)
12141300Middle Fork Snoqualmie River near Tanner
10/1/1929 to 9/30/194910/1/1961 to present
930(3060)
166(64)
12142000North Fork Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie Falls
9/1/1937 to present720(2,360)
210(80)
12148500Tolt River near Carnation
10/1/1928 to present1050(3,450)
1,386(535)
12134500Skykomish River near Goldbar
Period of Continuous Daily Records
Mean Elev.meters(feet)
Area km2
(mi2)
StationDescription
Selected USGS Stations
PRECIPITATION GAUGING STATIONS
458508609South Fork Tolt
450945209Buckley
45803452Startup
451233476Cedar Falls
999999442Culmback
457773134Snoqualmie Falls
457473122SeaTac
45552537Monroe
45267518Everett
COOP_IDElevation (meters)
Station
Time series plots of monthly precipitation percentiles (10th-, 50th-, and 90th-percentiles) based on water year 1962-2008 daily total precipitation records
Precipitation
Culmback
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
01020304050
10th-percentile90th-percentile50th-percentile
Everett (452675)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20
Monroe (455525)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20
SeaTac (4574738)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20South Fork Tolt (458508)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
05
1015202530
Snoqualmie (457773)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20
Startup (458034)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20
Buckley
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
0
5
10
15
20
Cedar Lake
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Pre
cip
(in)
05
1015202530
Time series plots of monthly discharge percentiles (10th-, 50th-, and 90th-percentiles) based on water year 1962-2008 daily USGS discharge records
USGS Discharge
Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
10th-percentile90th-percentile50th-percentile
Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
02000400060008000
100001200014000
Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek (12143400)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0200400600800
10001200
Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
02000400060008000
10000
Green River at Howard Hanson (12105900)
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Raging River near Fall City (12145500)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
02000400060008000
100001200014000Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)
Dis
char
ge (c
fs)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Trend Analysis Approach
+Type II Error: failure to detect an existing trend due to weakness of the trend, of the methodology, or the shortness of the record
No
Type I Error: false trend detected when none exists
+Yes
Has a trend been detected?
NoYesDoes a trend exist?
Trend Analysis Approach
• p between 1.0 and 0.1 (weakest evidence) • p between 0.1 and 0.05 (weak evidence) • p between 0.05 and 0.01 (strong
evidence)• p <0.01 (strongest evidence)
“Nothing is certain, but I think some things are more nearly
certain than others”- Bertrand Russell (paraphrased)
50th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
CulmbackEverett (452675)Monroe (455525)SeaTac (457473)South Fork Tolt (458508)Snoqualmie (457773)Startup (458034)Buckley (450945)Cedar Lake (451233)
5th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.35
25th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
75th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
Annual maximum
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0
10
20
30
40
50
Time series plots of normalized annual precipitation percentiles (5th-, 25th-, 50th, 75th, and annual maximum divided by record median precipitation) based on water year 1929-2008daily total precipitation records
Precipitation
Trend plots of annual precipitation percentiles (every 10th-percentile) based on water year 1962-2008 daily total precipitation records* Precipitation
Culmback
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
p<=1.0p<0.1p<0.05p<0.01
Everett (452675)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r-10123
Monroe (455525)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
SeaTac (457473)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
South Fork Tolt (458508)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100in
per
100
yr
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5
Snoqualmie (457773)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
Startup (458034)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
Buckley(450945)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
Cedar Lake(451233)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
in p
er 1
00 y
r
-10123
50th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2
Green River above Howard Hanson (12105900)Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek (12143400)Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500 )Raging River near Fall City (12145500)Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)
Annual Minimum
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
25th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
75th-Percentile
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5
Annual maximum
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020norm
aliz
ed p
erce
ntile
0
10
20
30
40
50
Time series plots of normalized annual discharge percentiles (annual minimum, 25th-, 50th, 75th, and annual maximum divided by record median discharge) based on all available complete water year daily USGS discharge records
USGS Discharge
Trend plots of annual discharge percentiles (every 10th-percentile) based on water year 1962-2008 daily USGS discharge records
USGS Discharge
North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls (12142000)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-10
0
10
20
30
40Cedar River near Cedar Falls (12115000)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r-202468
1012
p<=1.0p<0.1p<0.05p<0.01
Skykomish near Goldbar (12134500)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-500
50100150200250300
Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner (12141300)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-100
1020304050
South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek(12143400)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-202468
10121416
Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie (12144500)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-10-505
1015202530
Tolt River near Carnation (12148500)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-4-3-2-1012
Green River at Howard Hanson (12105900)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Raging River near Fall City(12145500)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-202468
1012
Snoqualmie River near Carnation (12149000)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CFS
per
yea
r
-40-20
020406080
100120
Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Total Precipitation at 9 Gauging Stations
Everett, Monroe, Startup, SeaTac, Snoqualmie, Buckley, Culmback, Cedar Lake, South Fork Tolt
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Num
ber o
f Sta
tions
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
All positive or negative trends (|tau|>0)Trends with weak evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.10)Trends with stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.05)Trends with strongest evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.01)
Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Maximum Precipitation at 9 Gauging Stations
Everett, Monroe, Startup, SeaTac, Snoqualmie, Buckley, Culmback, Cedar Lake, South Fork Tolt
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Num
ber o
f Sta
tions
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
All positive or negative trends (|tau|>0)Trends with weak evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.10)Trends with stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.05)Trends with strongest evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.01)
Water Years 1962 – 2008
Daily data from USGS gauging stations on unregulated rivers in King County
Trends in Monthly Average Flow in 10 Relatively Unregulated King County RiversSkykomish near Goldbar, Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner, Tolt River near Carnation, North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls, South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek,
Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie, Snoqualmie near Carnation, Raging River near Fall City, Cedar River near Cedar Falls, Green River at Howard Hanson Dam
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Num
ber o
f Sta
tions
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
All positive or negative trends (|tau|>0)Trends with weak evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.10)Trends with stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.05)Trends with strongest evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.01)
Daily data from USGS gauging stations on unregulated rivers in King County
Water Years 1962 – 2008Trends in Monthly Maximum Flow in 10 Relatively Unregulated King County Rivers
Skykomish near Goldbar, Middle Fork Snoqualmie near Tanner, Tolt River near Carnation, North Fork Snoqualmie near Snoqualmie Falls, South Fork Snoqualmie above Alice Creek,
Snoqualmie River near Snoqualmie, Snoqualmie near Carnation, Raging River near Fall City, Cedar River near Cedar Falls, Green River at Howard Hanson Dam
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Num
ber o
f Sta
tions
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
All positive or negative trends (|tau|>0)Trends with weak evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.10)Trends with stronger evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.05)Trends with strongest evidence against the null hypothesis (p<0.01)
Salathé (2006) Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33:L19820
Storm Tracks and Precipitation
y = -0.07x + 164.93
0
10
20
30
40
50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Thou
sand
s of
cub
ic fe
et p
er
seco
nd
Total Puget Sound inflow 5-year centered moving average Linear (Total Puget Sound inflow)
site_no description12200500 SKAGIT RIVER NEAR MOUNT VERNON, WA12134500 SKYKOMISH RIVER NEAR GOLD BAR, WA12149000 SNOQUALMIE RIVER NEAR CARNATION, WA12101500 PUYALLUP RIVER AT PUYALLUP, WA12167000 NF STILLAGUAMISH RIVER NEAR ARLINGTON, WA12113000 GREEN RIVER NEAR AUBURN, WA12061500 SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH, WA12119000 CEDAR RIVER AT RENTON, WA12054000 DUCKABUSH RIVER NEAR BRINNON, WA
Stationarity is dead
• Adaptation to climate change in the absence of a General Unified Theory
• Trade false certainty for uncertainty• Continuity of long-term monitoring is
critical• “Modeling should be used to synthesize
observations; it can never replace them.”• Greater emphasis on soft (non-structural)
management (engineering) solutionsMilley et al. 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management. Science Vol. 319. no. 5863, pp. 573 - 574DOI: 10.1126/science.1151915
Adaptation, Resilience, Overcoming Old Dichotomies
• Adapt to an uncertain non-stationary environment
• Adaptation as an integrating principle in water management – water law, policy, and management
• More and better data, information, and modeling
• Ecosystem, watershed, integrated water or watershed management