What Kind of Electric Power Plant What Kind of Electric Power Plant Do We Want for Glades County?Do We Want for Glades County?

(Global Warming & Sea Level Rise Issues)(Global Warming & Sea Level Rise Issues)

John Capece, Ph.D.John Capece, Ph.D.Agricultural EngineerAgricultural Engineer

December 21, 2006December 21, 2006

www.CarbonCapture.USwww.CarbonCapture.US

This would be the first U.S. ultra-supercritical pulverized This would be the first U.S. ultra-supercritical pulverized coal (USC-PC) combustion system. It is a cleaner, more coal (USC-PC) combustion system. It is a cleaner, more efficient process than older pulverized coal technologies.efficient process than older pulverized coal technologies.

Presentation Objective – USC or IGCC Coal PowerPresentation Objective – USC or IGCC Coal Power

Florida Power & Light (FPL) plans to build a coal-fired power Florida Power & Light (FPL) plans to build a coal-fired power plant for completion by 2012 in Glades County, Florida between plant for completion by 2012 in Glades County, Florida between Hwy 78 and Hwy 27, a few miles northwest of Moore Haven. This Hwy 78 and Hwy 27, a few miles northwest of Moore Haven. This power plant will have an expected operating life through 2050.power plant will have an expected operating life through 2050.

To facilitate carbon dioxide capture and sequestration To facilitate carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in the coming decades, many people are advocating in the coming decades, many people are advocating using an even more advanced coal technology – IGCC using an even more advanced coal technology – IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle).(Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle).

This presentation explains the rationale for IGCC, This presentation explains the rationale for IGCC, while recognizing that an even better long-term while recognizing that an even better long-term solution to the power needs of our society is the solution to the power needs of our society is the promotion of renewable, distributed energy systems promotion of renewable, distributed energy systems (solar, tide, wind, conservation, etc.).(solar, tide, wind, conservation, etc.).

Presentation Objective - I.G.C.C.Presentation Objective - I.G.C.C.

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Why a Coal-fired Power Plant?Why a Coal-fired Power Plant?

• Greenhouse Effect & Sea Level RiseGreenhouse Effect & Sea Level Rise

• Types of Coal-fired Power PlantsTypes of Coal-fired Power Plants

• Carbon SequestrationCarbon Sequestration

• Carbon TaxCarbon Tax

• Glades County ActionsGlades County Actions

Electric Power Sources in FloridaElectric Power Sources in Florida• Why use Coal?Why use Coal?

– To balance sources.To balance sources.

– Natural gas is riskyNatural gas is riskybecause of hurricanes.because of hurricanes.

– Large domestic coal Large domestic coal supply. (some imported)supply. (some imported)

– No military risk to secureNo military risk to securefuel supplies.fuel supplies.

– Efficient rail transport Efficient rail transport from Appalachian from Appalachian Mountains.Mountains.

• Problems with CoalProblems with Coal– Mining impacts in Mining impacts in

AppalachiaAppalachia

– Mercury & other Mercury & other emissionsemissions

– Carbon Dioxide emissionsCarbon Dioxide emissions

CO2 and Temperature Historical TrendsCO2 and Temperature Historical Trends

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide TrendAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Trend

CO2 and Temperature Historical TrendsCO2 and Temperature Historical Trends

We have increased CO2 concentrations beyond any levels ever experienced by modern man.

Absent other offsetting factors, temperatures will continue to rise, following from CO2 increases.

You will see CO2 pass the 400 ppm level in the next 10 years

The Relationship between CO2 and TemperatureThe Relationship between CO2 and Temperature

However, during the past However, during the past 20,000 years, CO2 followed 20,000 years, CO2 followed from temperature, from temperature,

This would match a climate model This would match a climate model in which the climate process was in which the climate process was being driven by changes in being driven by changes in incident solar radiation and incident solar radiation and changes in the earth’s reflectance.changes in the earth’s reflectance.

Probable explanations of CO2 Probable explanations of CO2 following temperature are out-following temperature are out-gassing from warming oceans, gassing from warming oceans, CO2 from warming soils, etc.CO2 from warming soils, etc.

This demonstrates a feedback loop This demonstrates a feedback loop between temperature and between temperature and CO2/methane that should cause CO2/methane that should cause even greater concern today as a even greater concern today as a magnifier of the current trend.magnifier of the current trend.

Global Warming asserts Global Warming asserts that temperature is now that temperature is now following from CO2.following from CO2.

The Relationship between CO2 and TemperatureThe Relationship between CO2 and Temperature

Possible causal factors for past glacial & warming cycles:Possible causal factors for past glacial & warming cycles:

(short term cycles – within the past 700,000 years) (short term cycles – within the past 700,000 years)

(long term cycles – millions of years)(long term cycles – millions of years)

• solar radiation intensity cyclessolar radiation intensity cycles• ocean circulation disruptionsocean circulation disruptions

• albedo (Earth’s reflectance) feedback from snow & icealbedo (Earth’s reflectance) feedback from snow & ice• volcanic activity (release of gases)volcanic activity (release of gases)

• continental plate movements (tectonics)continental plate movements (tectonics)

Planetary & Solar System CyclesPlanetary & Solar System Cycles

SHORT-MEDIUM TERMSHORT-MEDIUM TERM

• 11 year sunspot cycle11 year sunspot cycle • 88 year Gleissberg cycle 88 year Gleissberg cycle • 206 year cycle of solar variability206 year cycle of solar variability

LONGER TERMLONGER TERM

• 26,000 year cycle of the 'wobble' with precession of the equinoxes26,000 year cycle of the 'wobble' with precession of the equinoxes

• 40,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5 deg change in the Earth's axial tilt 40,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5 deg change in the Earth's axial tilt

• 100,000 year cycle in the eccentricity of Earth's elliptical orbit 100,000 year cycle in the eccentricity of Earth's elliptical orbit

• 220,000,000 year cycle (and smaller sub-cycles) due to rotation of the 220,000,000 year cycle (and smaller sub-cycles) due to rotation of the Solar System about the galactic center Solar System about the galactic center which takes the Earth up and down which takes the Earth up and down through the galactic plane; interstellar dust levels and incident cosmic ray flux changes through the galactic plane; interstellar dust levels and incident cosmic ray flux changes as a result as a result

• Slowing of the Earth's rotationSlowing of the Earth's rotation

CO2 and Temperature Historical Trends

180 = historic low

(ice age)

280 = historic high

(1000–1800 AD)

380 = current

480 = coming soon (2030 AD ???)

Emissions Reduction to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2Emissions Reduction to Stabilize Atmospheric CO2

Operating period of new FPL Power Plant

Most CO2 Dissolves into the Oceans…eventuallyMost CO2 Dissolves into the Oceans…eventually

CO2 Acidifies the Ocean & Changes its Life FormsCO2 Acidifies the Ocean & Changes its Life Forms

Sea Level Rise ESea Level Rise Effects on Floridaffects on Florida

20 ft

6 ft

Possible Global Equilibrium ConditionsPossible Global Equilibrium Conditions

Modern Florida at 280 ppm CO2

Ice Age Florida at 180 ppm CO2

Future Florida from 450 ppm CO2 ?

Future Florida from 650 ppm CO2 ?(Can we avoid this future?)

GulfstreamGulfstreamand theand the

Ocean HeatOcean HeatConveyorConveyor

Keeps Northern Keeps Northern Europe WarmEurope Warm

Possible Effects of Gulfstream Disruption on Ocean LevelsPossible Effects of Gulfstream Disruption on Ocean Levels

Possible Possible 10 ft10 ft

Dynamic Dynamic EffectEffect

On Florida On Florida CoastlineCoastline

Water Water LevelsLevels

3 ft3 ft

Static effectStatic effect

The Major Global Re-insurance Companies See it ComingThe Major Global Re-insurance Companies See it Coming

(Lloyds, Swiss Re, Zurich Re, Munich Re, etc.)(Lloyds, Swiss Re, Zurich Re, Munich Re, etc.)

Swiss Re: “Swiss Re: “In a carbon constrained imminent future, greenhouse gas In a carbon constrained imminent future, greenhouse gas emissions will become financial liabilities on many companies’ emissions will become financial liabilities on many companies’ balance sheets.”balance sheets.”

The Swiss Re report projected a likely worldwide doubling of losses The Swiss Re report projected a likely worldwide doubling of losses from weather related causes within ten years to $150 billion dollars US from weather related causes within ten years to $150 billion dollars US annually. annually. (It is and will continue to affect insurance rates in Florida.)(It is and will continue to affect insurance rates in Florida.)

The Climate Change Performance Index, introduced by Germanwatch The Climate Change Performance Index, introduced by Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe), compares the and Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe), compares the climate protection efforts of climate protection efforts of 5656 industrialized and rapidly industrialized and rapidly industrializing countries, that together make up more than 90% of industrializing countries, that together make up more than 90% of global carbon dioxide emissions. global carbon dioxide emissions. Sweden is the leader, and the Sweden is the leader, and the USA ranks among the bottom five.USA ranks among the bottom five.

Relative RisksRelative Risks

Climate change is perhaps the most serious risk faced by our society.Climate change is perhaps the most serious risk faced by our society.History demonstrates that some risks are underestimated by an order of magnitude: History demonstrates that some risks are underestimated by an order of magnitude:

Tsunami (ex:Indonesia), Floods (ex:Bangladesh), and Earthquakes (ex:China).Tsunami (ex:Indonesia), Floods (ex:Bangladesh), and Earthquakes (ex:China).

Ten-thousand

Hundred-thousand

Ten-million

Hundred-million

Are we building our population and quality of lifeAre we building our population and quality of lifeby unsustainably consuming our foundation assets?by unsustainably consuming our foundation assets?

6.6 billion people6.6 billion people

Stable, optimal climateStable, optimal climate

Stable communitiesStable communities

Stable agricultureStable agriculture

We can follow and We can follow and survive in an extreme survive in an extreme

consumption model only consumption model only if we constantly seek if we constantly seek

and find new resources and find new resources and aggressively and aggressively

develop and use new develop and use new technologies.technologies.

But it does come at a But it does come at a cost in the form of loss cost in the form of loss

of heritage (ecosystems, of heritage (ecosystems, species, landscapes, species, landscapes,

cultural diversity, etc.)cultural diversity, etc.)Stable eco-systemsStable eco-systems

Carbon Dioxide from Electric Energy ProductionCarbon Dioxide from Electric Energy Production

• FPL emits 20% less CO2 than the industry average. This FPL emits 20% less CO2 than the industry average. This partially reflects the fact that other U.S. regions & companies partially reflects the fact that other U.S. regions & companies use more coal, while FPL uses more natural gas. use more coal, while FPL uses more natural gas.

Soot & Global DimmingSoot & Global Dimming• Particulate Matter & Other Emissions (including coal soot)Particulate Matter & Other Emissions (including coal soot)

– Estimated to have reduced Global Warming by half, so far.Estimated to have reduced Global Warming by half, so far.– Reduced incident solar radiation by 5 – 10% worldwide.Reduced incident solar radiation by 5 – 10% worldwide.

• Is “clean” coal actually “better” coal…from a global warming Is “clean” coal actually “better” coal…from a global warming perspective?perspective?

– High CO2 emissions.High CO2 emissions.

– No more soot emissions to offset the CO2 effect.No more soot emissions to offset the CO2 effect.

Pulverized Coal vs. Coal GasificationPulverized Coal vs. Coal Gasification

• Pulverized Coal – Ultra Super CriticalPulverized Coal – Ultra Super Critical– Burn coal dust to heat water and make steam.Burn coal dust to heat water and make steam.– Use steam to drive a turbine.Use steam to drive a turbine.– Steam turbine generates electricity.Steam turbine generates electricity.

• Gasification – IGCC Gasification – IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)Cycle)

– Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle.Integrated Gasification and Combined Cycle.– Cook coal to make coal gas.Cook coal to make coal gas.– Burn coal gas in a turbine to make electricity (like Burn coal gas in a turbine to make electricity (like

aa jet engine). jet engine).

– Use the hot coal gas combustion exhaust to heat Use the hot coal gas combustion exhaust to heat water and make steam.water and make steam.

– Use steam to drive turbine.Use steam to drive turbine.– Steam turbine generates additional electricity.Steam turbine generates additional electricity.

The most advanced pulverized coal plant (Ultra Super-Critical) is more efficient.

USC has 44% Efficiency

Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal Ultra-Supercritical Pulverized Coal EfficiencyEfficiency

Type of CoalType of Coal

CombustionCombustion

Coal toCoal to

ElectricityElectricity

EfficiencyEfficiency

Ultra-Supercritical enhanced efficiency Ultra-Supercritical enhanced efficiency over older Pulverized Coal technologies over older Pulverized Coal technologies

Sub-criticalSub-critical Super-Super-criticalcritical

Advanced Advanced SupercriticalSupercritical

SubcriticalSubcritical 35%35%

SupercriticalSupercritical 37%37%Advanced Advanced

SupercriticalSupercritical 42%42%

Ultra-Ultra-SupercriticalSupercritical 44%44% 26%26% 19%19% 5%5%

Pulverized Coal vs. Coal GasificationPulverized Coal vs. Coal Gasification

• Gasification – IGCCGasification – IGCC

– Provides easier opportunity to capture CO2.Provides easier opportunity to capture CO2.– Cheaper than pulverized coal if CO2 capture is required.Cheaper than pulverized coal if CO2 capture is required.

• Pulverized Coal – USC Pulverized Coal – USC (without CO2 (without CO2 Capture)Capture)– Plants are cheaper to build.Plants are cheaper to build.– Plant operations are simpler, cheaper, and more Plant operations are simpler, cheaper, and more

reliable.reliable.– Plants are smaller and require less land.Plants are smaller and require less land.

The Carbon CycleThe Carbon Cycle

Many New IGCC Power Plants are PlannedMany New IGCC Power Plants are Planned

If so many other companies can justify and If so many other companies can justify and plan to build IGCC power plants, why plan to build IGCC power plants, why can’t/won’t FPL?can’t/won’t FPL?

German Chancellor Merkel takes a German Chancellor Merkel takes a look at a model of the world's first look at a model of the world's first CO2-free coal plant CO2-free coal plant

• 35% efficiency (vs. 45%)35% efficiency (vs. 45%)• Sequestration costs $30-$50 / tonSequestration costs $30-$50 / ton• completion by 2015completion by 2015• commercially viable by 2020commercially viable by 2020• Intended for exportIntended for export

California and Wyoming Sign California and Wyoming Sign Partnership on IGCC Projects Partnership on IGCC Projects

An IGCC plant with carbon An IGCC plant with carbon sequestration, as called for by the sequestration, as called for by the MOU, would result in no greenhouse MOU, would result in no greenhouse gas emissions. The MOU also calls gas emissions. The MOU also calls on the federal government to on the federal government to provide financial support for the provide financial support for the development of IGCC plants.development of IGCC plants.

HR-5049 (in 109HR-5049 (in 109thth Congress) Congress)a CARBON TAX will be imposed to reduce a CARBON TAX will be imposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissionsgreenhouse gas emissionsHow much will the tax be? ($16/ton, How much will the tax be? ($16/ton,

phased) phased)

$0.50 per gallon of gasoline = $200 per $0.50 per gallon of gasoline = $200 per tonne Ctonne C

The amount of a C-tax affects coal & natural gas.The amount of a C-tax affects coal & natural gas.The tax has little or no effect on nuclear, solar, The tax has little or no effect on nuclear, solar, wind and other renewable energy sources.wind and other renewable energy sources.

Passage of Passage of carbon tax carbon tax frameworkframeworklegislation is legislation is likely in the next likely in the next (110(110thth) Congress.) Congress.

Then new chairs Then new chairs of the of the environment & environment & energy energy committees sent committees sent President Bush a President Bush a letter letter immediately after immediately after the election.the election.

Effects of Carbon Taxes to Achieve CO2 Effects of Carbon Taxes to Achieve CO2 ReductionReduction

Other Nations Take Action on Carbon Other Nations Take Action on Carbon DioxideDioxide

U.K. Government Official Policy U.K. Government Official Policy StatementsStatements

““Climate change is the greatest market failure the Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen.”world has ever seen.”

““The investment that takes place in the next 10-20 years will have The investment that takes place in the next 10-20 years will have a profound effect on the climate change that happens in the a profound effect on the climate change that happens in the second half of this century and in the next.second half of this century and in the next.””

““Extensive carbon capture and storage will be necessary to allow Extensive carbon capture and storage will be necessary to allow the continued use of fossil fuels without damage to the the continued use of fossil fuels without damage to the atmosphere.”atmosphere.”

““If we take no action to control emissions, each tonne of CO2 that If we take no action to control emissions, each tonne of CO2 that we emit now is causing damage worth at least $85.”we emit now is causing damage worth at least $85.”

““Action on climate change will create significant business Action on climate change will create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in the low-carbon opportunities, as new markets are created in the low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services.”energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services.”

Glades CountyGlades CountyEconomic Development CouncilEconomic Development Council

• EDC was asked to endorse the FPL coal project.EDC was asked to endorse the FPL coal project.

• I requested amendments to the resolution:I requested amendments to the resolution:

– Make the power plant CARBON CAPTURE READYMake the power plant CARBON CAPTURE READY(IGCC or modified Ultra Supercritical design)(IGCC or modified Ultra Supercritical design)

– Fund a non-profit organization to inform the public Fund a non-profit organization to inform the public about coal-fired power plants and carbon capture.about coal-fired power plants and carbon capture.

• EDC voted against my amendments.EDC voted against my amendments.

• EDC voted for the FPL project endorsement.EDC voted for the FPL project endorsement.((see http://www.fpl.com/environment/plant/gpp_support.shtml)see http://www.fpl.com/environment/plant/gpp_support.shtml)

Glades County Economic Glades County Economic DevelopmentDevelopment CouncilCouncil

• Motion to Amend by John Capece, Second by Patty Motion to Amend by John Capece, Second by Patty RegisterRegister

• Voting For AmendmentVoting For Amendment– John Capece, Southern DataStream, Inc.John Capece, Southern DataStream, Inc.

• Voting Against AmendmentVoting Against Amendment– Cheryl Eby, Cheryl Eby, Rawls Real EstateRawls Real Estate

– Kevin Thomas, CHL Holdings, Inc.Kevin Thomas, CHL Holdings, Inc.

– Russell Echols, Glades CountyRussell Echols, Glades County

– Bill Redmon, Bill Redmon, The GladesThe Glades

– Patty Register, GatoramaPatty Register, Gatorama

– Rhoda Planty, Rhoda Planty, Joyner DevelopmentJoyner Development

– John Ahern, City of Moore HavenJohn Ahern, City of Moore Haven

– David Danenhauer, David Danenhauer, Mickey's Bait & TackleMickey's Bait & Tackle

– Tommy Perry, Tommy Perry, Johnson-Prewitt Associates, Inc.Johnson-Prewitt Associates, Inc.

– Danielle Toms, Danielle Toms, Glades Electric Co-OpGlades Electric Co-Op

• Abstained From VoteAbstained From Vote- - Mark Morton, Lykes Brothers, Inc.Mark Morton, Lykes Brothers, Inc.

• Note: the FPL Note: the FPL engineer responded, engineer responded, “yes,” when asked if “yes,” when asked if the new FPL USC-PC the new FPL USC-PC power plant would be power plant would be economically viable economically viable in a high ($200/ton) in a high ($200/ton) carbon tax carbon tax environment.environment.

Glades County Economic Glades County Economic DevelopmentDevelopment CouncilCouncil

• Motion to Endorse FPL Power Park Project, on Oct. 9, Motion to Endorse FPL Power Park Project, on Oct. 9, 20062006

• Voting Against the MotionVoting Against the Motion– Patty Register, GatoramaPatty Register, Gatorama

• Voting For the MotionVoting For the Motion– Russell Echols, Glades CountyRussell Echols, Glades County

– Kevin Thomas, CHL Holdings, Inc.Kevin Thomas, CHL Holdings, Inc.

– Bill Redmon, Bill Redmon, The GladesThe Glades

– Rhoda Planty, Rhoda Planty, Joyner DevelopmentJoyner Development

– John Ahern, City of Moore HavenJohn Ahern, City of Moore Haven

– David Danenhauer, David Danenhauer, Mickey's Bait & TackleMickey's Bait & Tackle

– Tommy Perry, Tommy Perry, Johnson-Prewitt Associates, Inc.Johnson-Prewitt Associates, Inc.

– Danielle Toms, Danielle Toms, Glades Electric Co-OpGlades Electric Co-Op

– Cheryl Eby-Gutjahr, Cheryl Eby-Gutjahr, Rawls Real EstateRawls Real Estate

• Abstained From VoteAbstained From Vote- Mark Morton, Lykes Brothers, Inc.Mark Morton, Lykes Brothers, Inc.

- John Capece, Southern DataStreamJohn Capece, Southern DataStream

• FPL Presentation FPL Presentation byby

- Grover WhiddonGrover Whiddon

- Rachel ScottRachel Scott

- David HicksDavid Hicks

www.CarbonCapture.US

Why not an IGCC projectin Glades?