what makes a good estimator? - acoste systems acoste nw what... · no estimator can be an expert in...
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03/02/2015 1
What Makes a Good Estimator? Alan R Jones
Chief Estimator – Professional Development and Continuous Improvement
ACostE North West Region 29th January 2015
© BAE SYSTEMS PLC 2015 All Rights Reserved
The copyright in this document, which contains information of a proprietary nature, is vested in BAE SYSTEMS Public Limited Company. The contents
of this document may not be used for purposes other than that for which it has been supplied and may not be reproduced, either wholly or in part, in any
way whatsoever, nor may it be used by, or it contents divulged to, any person whatsoever without the prior written permission of BAE SYSTEMS Public
Limited Company
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What Makes a Good Estimator?
What do we mean by “good”? Let’s say “Upper Quartile”
Contents
• Contextual Framework
• Personal Attributes
• Subject Knowledge
• Technical Skills
• Inter-personal Skills
• Summary
• Open Discussion
2
The Building Blocks of any Estimating Capability are:
“Data, tools, people and process;
… but the most complex is people!”
Source: Dr Mark Gilmour, Dale Shermon (2014) “Data, tools, people and process;
but the most complex is people!”, Project Control Professional, ACostE
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Estimating Process
Stakeholder Attitudes
Prior Experience
Personal Competence
Organisational Culture
Contextual Framework
What makes a good estimator?
3
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Everyone has an influence on us …
The way we think … the way we work … the way we react …
are influenced by others around us …
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Estimating Inference Ladder
I adopt beliefs
I take action
based on my beliefs
I make assumptions based
on the meaning(s) I add
I draw conclusions
I add meaning to the data
I select data from what I
observe
I am exposed to observable
data and experiences
My beliefs are formed from
what I observe or am led
to observe by others
My beliefs affect what data I
unconsciously observe
and subsequently select
to act on in future
This helps to re-affirm my
beliefs
We are all guilty of
unconscious bias.
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Unconscious Bias - Example
Squares A and B are Different Shades of Grey
True or False?
Let’s take some colour samples
A
B
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Contextual Framework
The Estimator will be affected by the environment in which they work …
• Core Competences
– Are we suited to being an estimator? Are we inherently creative?
• The Estimating Process we are expected to follow
– How flexible is it? Have we been trained in what we should and should not
do? Do we know how to apply the technical skills required?
• Stakeholder Attitudes
– Are we seen as friend or foe?
• Organisational Culture
– Is challenge encouraged or discouraged?
• Depth of Knowledge
– Do we have prior experience and knowledge we can draw upon?
7
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BAE Systems Skills Quadrant
8
Technical Skills
Interpersonal Skills
Product & Capability
Knowledge
Business Skills
In BAE Systems we have a 4 Quadrant Model across the organisation for
developing our people
... this applies to our estimators
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Estimating Skills Requirement
There is no single recipe for what makes a good estimator, but the
best ones have a range and mix of attributes:
• Personal Core Competences (Quadrant 1 + 3)
• Business, Product and Capability Knowledge (Quadrant 2 + 4)
• Technical Skills (Quadrant 3)
• Interpersonal Skills (Quadrant 1 + 3)
... every estimator has these in varying degrees
9
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Personal Attributes or Core Competences
What makes a good estimator?
10
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• A head for numbers (strong numeracy skills)
• Sound verbal reasoning skills
• Well organised (data and thoughts)
• Honest and ethical
• Level Headed
• Naturally inquisitive
• Good powers of recall
• Fearless and thick-skinned in the face of opposition
• Tendency to cynicism perhaps?
11
Personal Attributes (in no particular order)
11
Yeah,
really?!
I think
therefore I am.
QED
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Product, Process, Organisation Subject Knowledge
What makes a good estimator?
12
Not necessarily,
an “anorak” but
they do need to
know “who they’re
going to call”
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Knowing the Product or Process Context
No estimator can be an expert in everything but they
need to have a basic awareness, and a supporting
network of helpful knowledgeable contacts:
• Products and services we are selling
• Our Process Capabilities
• Our Process Capacities
• The way we conduct our business
• Our data recording systems
Any Estimate without an understanding of its context
might as well be just a random number!
13
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Knowing the context we are required to estimate
The context also includes the purpose we are creating an estimate ...
How long should we leave for a trip to the railway station?
• According to our “Sat Nav” it should take us 20 mins
• But the time we allow may depend on whether we are:
– Catching a train?
– Meeting a train?
– Or just buying / collecting a ticket for a train on a future date?
The context should lead us to consider:
– The consequences of the journey taking longer than we expect
– The day, time of day, time of year that we are going
– Whether there is an alternative solution
– Potentially who else is involved
14
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Technical Skills for Estimating
What makes a good estimator?
15
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Technical Skills
• Can perform basic Statistical Data Analysis
• Has an understanding of Product and Process Cost
Drivers and their Correlation with Cost
• Can create top-down and bottom-up estimates
• Understands the difference between the three basic
estimating techniques (APE)
• Knows their way around a Spreadsheet
• Follows Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling as an
aid to independent Verification & Validation
• Understands Risk, Opportunity and Uncertainty
Evaluation and Contingency Planning
• Ability to document the Basis of Estimate
16
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Choosing an Appropriate Estimating Technique
There are only three basic Estimating Techniques
Expert Judgement
Scope
Cost
??? Eeny, meeny, miny moe
No Cost Reference Points
Analogy
Scope
Cost
Actual
Estimate
+20% growth
Single Cost Reference Point
Parametric
Cost
Estimate
Actuals
Multiple Cost Reference Points
Trend
Analysis
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The Science and Art of Understanding ROU
18
May or May Not Occur Will Occur
Risk &
Opportunity Register Defined
Baseline Tasks
Emergent
Baseline Task
Performance
Undefined Risks
or the
“Unknown Unknowns”
Clearly Defined
Undefined
or Unclear
Baseline
Estimate
Bottom-up
Uncertainty
Assessment
Bottom-up
Risk &
Opportunity
Assessment
Gap in Monte
Carlo Analysis
Likelihood of Task Occurrence
Task
Definition
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Other Technical Skills
19
The inner geek within
me wants to continue
on this theme but
there is a severe risk
of a sudden epidemic
of A2D2
Audience Attention
Deficit Disorder ...
70% of all statistics are made up, which
reminds me of the time we invented this little metric
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Inter-Personal Skills of an Estimator
What makes a good estimator?
20
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Inter-Personal Skills Requirement
The goal of the estimator is to generate or compile an honest and
independent assessment of the cost based on the agreed requirements
The Estimator’s role is that of a Mover, Shaper, and Independent Thinker
… a role which requires a range of interpersonal skills in order to deal
effectively with the issues faced when interacting with others in order that our
products are more affordable, and we are more competitive as a business
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BAE Systems End-to-End Estimating Process
Re
co
nc
ile
an
d M
ain
tain
Es
tim
ate
Re
co
mm
en
da
tio
ns
Plan and Manage Cost Estimates
Cre
ate
an
d M
ain
tain
Co
mm
erc
ial In
de
pe
nd
en
t E
sti
ma
te
Provide
Support to Contract
Management
Re
vie
w a
nd
Re
co
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ile
Fu
nc
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l E
sti
ma
tes
Co
mp
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ain
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Ris
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Op
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y a
nd
Un
ce
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inty
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lua
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Co
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Cre
ate
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ain
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Fu
nc
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sti
ma
tes
Manufacturing
Procurement
Engineering
Project
Management
Support
Iterate in line with
Product Maturity
through to
Contract Award
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“Soft Skills” in the Context of E2E Estimating
Infl
uen
cin
g S
tyle
s
Stakeholder Management & Influencing Styles
La
tera
l T
hin
kin
g
Influencing Styles
Team Working
Qu
es
tio
nin
g S
kil
ls ,E
ffe
cti
ve
Lis
ten
ing
& N
eg
oti
ati
on
Sk
ills
La
tera
l T
hin
kin
g &
Qu
es
tio
nin
g S
kil
ls
Infl
ue
nc
ing
Sty
les
& P
res
en
tati
on
Sk
ills
Te
am
Wo
rkin
g
Be
ha
vio
ur
Ma
na
ge
men
t
Tra
ns
ac
tio
nal A
na
lys
is
Ch
an
ge M
an
ag
em
en
t
… to name but a
few of the
interactions
However, all the
development of
these skills from an
estimating
perspective are
often overlooked
They are regarded
as the domain for
Human Resource
Professionals to
develop
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Soft Skills in Estimating – An Alternative Perspective
• The “Soft Skills” required to support the E2E can be summarised as:
– Planning and Setting Expectations
– Engaging with Others
– Getting Information
– Overcoming Problems and Difficulties
– Going Public and Selling the Story
• All of which requires an element of:
– Management
– Communication
– Thinking Skills
… in order to maximise our Personal Effectiveness
The National Occupational Standards for Estimating also include Personal Effectiveness skills
24
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Key Soft Skills Identified for Estimators
1. Change Management
2. Stakeholder Management
3. Behaviour Management
4. Team Working
5. Time Management
1. Negotiation Skills
2. Influencing Styles ...
3. Transactional Analysis ...
4. ... Questioning Styles ...
5. ... ... Effective Listening
6. Presentation Skills
7. Virtues and Vices of Virtual Meetings
1. Psychology of Estimating / Unconscious Bias
2. Lateral Thinking ...
3. ... De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
4. ... Brainstorming Techniques
Management Skills
Communication
Skills and
Techniques
Thinking Styles
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Change Management
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Overcoming Resistance to Change
... In the context of Behavioural and Cultural Change - not Configuration Control
Implementing Change – Lewin’s 3-Stage Approach to Changing attitudes
Unfreeze … Change … Refreeze
Create the
burning platform
Turn off the heat
and solidify again
U
Show them the
way to safety
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The Change Curve – An Emotional Rollercoaster
Imp
act
Shock,
Denial Anger, Fear Acceptance Commitment
Old Status
Quo Disruption Exploration Rebuilding
New Status
Quo
Reaction
Change State
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Managing The Change Curve
Imp
act
Time
U
Accelerate the
Change
Reduce the Negative
Consequences
Unfreeze … Change … Refreeze
Manage the change to accelerate the benefits and minimise their effects
In a bid situation we can’t afford to wait around while others catch up
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Stakeholder Management and
Behaviour Management
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Where there’s an Interaction, there’s a Stakeholder
End-to-End
Estimating
Process
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Stakeholder Management
Power or
Influence
High
Low
Low High Interest
Key Shapers
Supporters Fringe Players
Potential Distractors
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Stakeholder Behavioural Styles
Submissive
Hostile
Dominant
Consensual
Terrorist Leader
Blocker Helper
... Knowing someone’d behaviour style helps to identify strategies to deal with them
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Stakeholder Management
Know your Stakeholders …
• Apply the “Triple A” Test to the Most Influential of these
• In terms of what you are trying to achieve, are they an:
ADVOCATE AGNOSTIC ADVERSARY
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Stakeholder Management
High
Low
Low High
Marginalise / Mentor Monitor
Manage / Mould Mitigate
Power or
Influence
Interest
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Team Working & Team Management
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Stages in the Life of a Team
From the Birth to the Death of a Team ... and when team members change
Forming Storming Norming Performing Mourning
New Team
comes together
Team
performance
drops off as
Weaknesses
emerge
Team
performance
improves as
combined
Strengths
emerge
Team performs
well as
synergies are
maximised
Performance
dips as team
begins to
disband
Minimise and
shorten
Maximise and
lengthen
Effectiveness
With a Bid Team, it is essential that we
minimise the “Storming Stage” and
maximise the “Performing Phase” ... and
know who’s doing what, when and how
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Who’s Who in your Team? Belbin’s Roles
How can we summarise Belbin’s Team Roles in a nutshell?
Co-ordinator Acts as a Chairperson
Team Worker Encourages co-operation
Resource Investigator Explores outside opportunities
Shaper Challenges the team to improve
Implementer Puts ideas into action
Completer-Finisher Ensures thorough timely completion
Plant Presents new ideas and approaches
Monitor-Evaluator Analyses the options
Specialist Provides specialised skills and knowledge
Each role brings something positive and different to the team … but they also bring
with them some behavioural “baggage” …
… that’s the trade-off – you can’t have one without the other …
People
Oriented
Roles
Action
Oriented
Roles
Thought
Oriented
Roles
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Negotiation Skills
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Stages of Negotiation
The process of negotiation includes the following stages:
1. Preparation Know what is important to the other party
2. Opening Deal with the decision maker, not the messenger
3. Discussion Breaking the ice and establishing rapport
4. Proposing Clarification of goals (use appropriate Influencing styles)
5. Bargaining Negotiate towards a Win-Win outcome
6. Adjournment? Only if needed - links back to influencing styles
7. Agreement Re-state all that has been agreed (like Active Listening)
8. Recording Summarise in writing the agreed course of action
Even for informal negotiation, the following is important:
– Attitude
– Knowledge
– Other Interpersonal Skills
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Looking for the Win-Win Solution
Th
ey m
ust
win
att
itu
de
We must win attitude
Grudging Compromise
with no real ownership
Confrontation
There are no Winners
Lose / Win
They are happy; we are not
Win / Win
Everyone is
reasonably
happy
Win / Lose
We are happy; they are not
Their Maximum Concession
Their M
inim
um
Accepta
ble
Positio
n
Our Minimum Acceptable Position
Our
Maxim
um
Concessio
n
We must not lose attitude
Th
ey m
ust
no
t lo
se a
ttit
ud
e
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Influencing Styles or, how to get over the factor
and turn
into more of a
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43
Influencing Styles
• Proposing
• Reasoning
• Stating expectations
• Evaluating
• Using incentives and pressures
• Involving
• Listening
• Disclosing
• Finding common ground
• Visioning
• Postponing
• Changing the subject
• Taking a break
• Processing
• Withdrawing
• Blanking or dismissing
• Hiding
There are five basic Influencing Styles:
• Persuading
• Asserting
• Bridging
• Attracting
• Disengaging
• Avoiding
} }
Push Styles
Pull Styles
} Moving Away
Styles
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“Transactional Analysis”
Dealing with others who are dealing with us
Dealing with ourselves
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Berne’s Life Position Mindsets and Ego-States
My State
from my
Point of
View
I’m OK
I’m Not OK
Your State from my Point of View
You’re Not OK You’re OK
I feel good in myself
and about others
around me.
I’m confident we can
make things work.
I feel bad in myself
and see myself as
sub-ordinate to you
and others.
I feel bad in myself
and I feel bad about
you too. What’s the
point no-one will take
us seriously?
I feel good in myself ,
and I see myself as
better than you.
I hope you don’t hold
me back.
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Overview of Transactional Analysis
Interactions between Ego-States
– Parent – Child Transactions
Gives instruction. Tends to “talk down” to
someone. Gives praise or criticism
– Adult – Adult Transactions
Makes reasonable requests of others. Provides
information objectively.
– Child – Parent Transactions
Seeks direction or approval. Gives a compliant
or defiant response to engagement with others.
– Child – Child Transactions
Off-the-wall creative thinking. Unfocused.
Distracted
P
A
C
P
A
C
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Questioning and Listening Skills
??
? !!@
# This is a key skill for Estimators
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Questioning Skills
There are different types of question styles
… some of which are useful:
– Open
– Closed
– Quantitative
– Qualitative
– Probing
– Non-Verbal
– Comparison
– Self-Assessment
… some less helpful:
– Multiple
… whilst others that are not so helpful at all:
– Leading
– Hypothetical
– Rhetorical
Only Open and Closed question styles
are mutually exclusive. All others can
be combined with at least one other
style
e.g. Closed Quantitative Probing
Questions
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Questioning Skills: When to use
Examples of different types of question styles:
Open Questions
– Useful to get people to talk about a subject openly
– May be phrased as an invitation rather than as a question
“Tell me what you think about …”
Closed Questions
– Useful in clarifying specific points
– Designed to lead to a single factual answer or statement of
opinion
“What is the biggest risk … ?”
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Questioning Skills: When to use
Quantitative Questions
– Useful to get clear statements regarding numerical values
– Can be used in open-style questions
“What is the possible range of outturn values for … ?”
– Or, in closed-style questions
“What is the probability of occurrence of … ?”
Qualitative Questions
– Useful in getting general “size” statements where people cannot or will
not commit to specific values
– Can be used in open-style questions
“How significant is this risk in general terms… ?”
– Or, in closed-style questions
“Which option provides the greatest opportunity … ?”
About
so big
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Questioning Skills: When to use
Probing Questions
– Useful in exploring broad statements in greater detail
– Often used following either open or closed questions
“What is the basis of that estimate … ?”
Comparison Questions
– Useful to get people to put things into some sort of perspective or rank
– Can help to eliminate subjective expressions of size (e.g. big, major)
“How does that compare with the previous estimate … ?”
Self-Assessment Questions
– Useful to get people to reflect on their own area of competence
– Can help to differentiate between expert and messenger
“Is this an area which you consider yourself to be … ?”
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Questioning Skills: When to use
... but be careful of targeting too much in one go:
“What is the most likely value of the risk, and the probability of it occurring? What are the optimistic and pessimistic values if it occurs and how can we best mitigate against it, and at what cost?”
Multiple Questions
– Useful in getting information in a structured manner
• Try not to string too many questions together, or ask too many challenging questions at one – risk of overload!
• Try instead just starting with …
“What is the most likely value of the risk, and does it have a high, medium or low probability of occurring?”
• You can always ask more questions later
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Right
Answer
Left
Answer
53
Questioning Skills: What not to use
Examples of styles to avoid in the main:
Leading Questions
– Can produce the answer that was posed in the question!
– May eliminate a perfectly good answer that is not included in the question
“I think 30% sounds about right, but what’s your view?”
– However, they can be a useful in testing your understanding as part of
active listening
Hypothetical Questions
– Can produce considered answers to unrealistic questions !!!
“What would be the impact on the business of the entire Design
Team winning the lottery roll-over next week ?”
– Why would you want to waste your time doing that ?
Rhetorical Question
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Questioning Skills: Body Language
You can also ask questions without saying anything:
Non-Verbal Questioning
– Useful to get people to expand or reflect without interrupting
– Facial expressions that invite people to continue or to explain further
A shake of the head, a frown, a hand gesture …
– Or express agreement or satisfaction
A nod, a smile, a show of surprise …
… but be careful or sending the wrong message with your expression
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When people speak their listeners focus on the following:
… so make sure people can hear and see when they are listening
55
Effective Communication
7%
38% 55%
The words we say
Our tone of voice
Our facial expressions
Source: Albert Mehrabian
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Art of Listening and Barriers to Listening
Points to remember:
• The person speaking is not necessarily the person in control of the process
• Listening/talking is a bilateral process
• Listening includes watching – body language can be very “vocal”
There are impediments to effective listening
• Resistance to change
• Disinterest in the subject
• Thinking of one’s own thoughts instead of listening
• Wishful hearing (closely related to wishful thinking)
• Making unwarranted assumptions
• Habitual secretiveness
• Allowing distractions
BAE SYSTEMS PROPRIETARY – Internal Use Only
Unpublished Work Copyright 2013 BAE Systems. All rights reserved.
Lateral Thinking
… or, Thinking Sideways!
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Lateral Thinking
• Lateral Thinking is the process of shifting thinking patterns away from
entrenched or predictable lines of thinking, in order to generate new or
unexpected ideas
– Traditional Thinking is often characterised by short logical links.
• Lateral Thinking looks for the less obvious, but no less logical, steps in
another direction
... may result in different solutions being generated, or in arriving at the same
solution via a different route
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Lateral Thinking
Opposite Thinking:
– Declare the usual perception out of bounds, or provide some provocative alternative to the usual situation under consideration
– Think of the obvious – then think the opposite
– De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats!
Challenge:
– Simply challenge the way things have always been done or seen, or the
way they are. This is done not to show there is anything wrong with the
existing situation but simply to direct your perceptions to exploring outside
the current area
Random Entry:
– Choose something (images, words or concepts) at random, possibly by an
independent non-expert, then try to draw an association with the topic in
question
– Use instead of, or in conjunction, with Brainstorming
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Put on a Thinking Cap
…stands for process control. This is the hat worn by
the co-ordinator who invites other ‘hats’ to be worn
…focuses on the information available, (and gaps)
Performs detailed analysis and draws conclusions
(Bottom-up)
…focuses on problems using intuition, gut reaction,
and ‘emotion’ (Top-down)
…thinking looks at what might go well. It focuses on
the optimistic viewpoint and the opportunities
…thinking looks at what might not go well. It focuses
on the pessimistic viewpoint and the risks
…is about creativity, coming up with different ideas
If you are more of a … Try being a … or a …
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Summary
What makes a good estimator?
61
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Conclusion
The perfect estimator is a mythical being, a somewhat endangered
species, hungry for data, but can exist on next to nothing for long periods
of time
– and as such probably does not exist!
62
Yeah,
really?! I think
therefore I am.
QED
Best
Case
Worst
Case
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Conclusion
The perfect estimator is a mythical being, a somewhat endangered
species, hungry for data, but can exist on next to nothing for long periods
of time
– and as such probably does not exist!
… but the perfect estimating team can, so long as between them they …
– Cover product and business knowledge
– Know the process capabilities
– Can use numerical and statistical techniques
– Have strong inter-personal skills
– A good breadth and depth of experience and new ideas
... and are respected by other professionals
… after all, Estimating is a team sport
63
Time-Served
Graduates
Others
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How good is the BAE Systems Estimating Team?
64
That’s not for me to say ... but others have …
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Coming Soon in a Journal Near You …
65
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Discussion Time
Thank you for coming, and thank you more for listening
… but that’s enough from me …
What do you think? Is the same true:
– In other organisations?
– In other industrial sectors?
– Across other disciplines of Estimating, Planning, Cost Engineering and Project Control?