what might the future generations bill mean for carmarthenshire? dr. alan netherwood march 2014...
TRANSCRIPT
What might the
Future Generations Bill mean for
Carmarthenshire?
Dr. Alan Netherwood
March 2014
NETHERWOODSUSTAINABLE FUTURES
Sustainable Development &Climate Change Consultancy
Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of Planning & GeographyCardiff University
Professor Dennis F. ThompsonHarvard Kennedy School
Citizens discount future so democratic process follows suit = Presentism
Presentism • neglects long term risks, citizens not yet born• maximises the interests of immediate descendants• temporal limits on politics, policy and finance• discounts, rather than accounts for needs of future
generations
Do unto future generations as you would have past generations do unto you” (John Rawls)
Do policies/actions provide greater utility or less utility?
Representatives may:
Express the perspectives of future citizensAct as a surrogate for future citizensIdentify values likely to be neglected and priorities to adoptProtect capacity for making collective [sustainable] decisions
Representing future generations meaningfully is going to be difficult
Generational hindsight 1966 – 2014
0.5 LIFETIME OF CHANGE?
1. Geopolitics
2. Technology
3. Health
4. Communities
5. Resources
6. Individuals
WHAT HAS CHANGED IN 47 YEARS?
1. Soviet Union, China and India, N.Ireland, EU Expansion, Globalisation
2. Internet, Phones, Computers, Cloning
3. Diagnostics, Transplants, Genomics
4. Diversity, Migration, Marriage, Transience
5. North Sea Oil, Consumption, Waste, Energy
6. Gender, Information, Voting, Consumerism
Generational Foresight - students I teach retire in 2063
Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire ‘citizen’ Evie Netherwood (currently aged 7)
Generational Foresight : A Carmarthenshire ‘citizen’
Born 2006Leaves School 2024Graduates 2027First Job 2028Next generation born 2033 - 2040Career 2028 -2068Puts me in retirement home
2046
Mortgage paid off 2068Retires 2068Daughter ‘Ebony’ puts her in retirement home
2090
Born 2033Leaves School 2051Graduates 2051First Job 2052Next generation born 2060 - 2067Career 2052 - 2092Puts Evie in retirement home
2090
Mortgage paid off 2092Retires 2092Daughter ‘Emma’ puts her in retirement home
2113
Evie Netherwood (currently aged 7)
Ebony Netherwood (tba 2033)
What if the ‘Bill’ works and we successfully look after the needs of future generations
as we navigate our way through the next 50 years +……
What might the Bill have meant for Carmarthenshire?
Major trends from Foresighting work with WLGA:
Climate AdaptationResource ScarcityEnergy SecurityFood SecurityWater SecurityAgeing PopulationPoorer HealthAusterity – less public moneyEmployment
We would have adapted well to climate change predicted by 2050 and be planning for a changing future….
Renewables technology would have limited fuel poverty and increased sufficiency
Our energy supplies would be secure despite resource conflict abroad
Our electricity grid would be well adapted for microgeneration
Our transport infrastructure is still usable even though we had to let some roads ‘go’
Rural communities receive grants to maintain vital ‘B’ roads
Early intervention in the 2020s has meant high literacy and numeracy
High levels of skills are translated into small scale businesses across Carmarthenshire
Which all have good broadband!
Public sector still serves the community and provides many jobs………
……and Carmarthenshire’s ‘green economy’ is booming using its rich natural assets …….
sustainable approaches to agriculture, horticulture, energy production and tourism
Farmers now store water and supply a water grid for business use and irrigation
Council investment portfolios have been used in public/private partnerships
and to make our infrastructure last
to build affordable homes
Our systems of government, public funding, taxation and investment all work with the future in mind
Looking after the needs of the next generation…..
They are held accountable.
Questions for students at Trinity St Davids in 2050
Did the Future Generations Bill shift our short termist culture from 2015 onwards?
Were our public bodies post 2015 held accountable for their plans for mid-century?
10 BUILDING BLOCKS FOR EARLY ADOPTERS OF FUTURE GENERATIONS BILL
Long term strategy (2050) Business Processes Approach to Physical
Development
Financial and legal systems
Service co-design with Community and
Partners
Sustainable Decision Making
Governance for Future Generations
Collaboration in the authority area and
across administrative boundaries
Capacity building in the Council
Being accountable to future generations
Currently working on change management and accountability frameworks with Welsh Local Government
Incrementalism?
…….or shift?
Conclusions?
Diolch yn fawr iawn
Thankyou for listening
Questions?
NETHERWOODSUSTAINABLE FUTURES
Sustainable Development &Climate Change Consultancy
Honorary Research Fellow, Cardiff School of Planning & GeographyCardiff University