what the milling/ baking industries will need from wheat in 2025

WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

CHALLENGE: TO FEED 8 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2025

5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

BILLIONS OF PEOPLE

22%

78%

1990

Less developed

More developed 16%

84%

2025

Fuente: ONU.

REGIONS:

2

• THE HIGHER THE INCOME (Q5)

THE INTAKE OF ANIMAL

PROTEIN AND SUGARS

INCREASES, WHILE CEREAL

INTAKE DECREASES.

• THE LESSER THE INCOME (Q1)

THE INTAKE OF CEREAL

INCREASES.


CEREALS IN ALIMENTATION

Source: FAO.

3

Proportion of food groups in the total supply of dietary energy

OTHER

SUGARS

FATS AND OILS

FOODS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN

FRUITS

VEGETABLES

ROOTS AND TUBERS

CEREALS Saharan Africa Asia Latin America and the

Caribbean North Africa

Source: CANIMOLT with data from OMS, USDA and the World Bank

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400 KG/PERSON

Obese population (%)

over 20 years old

17% 17%

17% 34% 21% 20%

2%

17% 6%

36% 32%

6% 2% 33% 19%

33%

$153 $198

$80 $125 $302

$234 $44

$80 $10

$659 $8,233

$219

$51 $631

$990

$603

Total expenditure on

health, per capita (USD)


WHEAT CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH EXPENDITURE

4


AREA HARVESTED AND GRAIN YIELD

5

333 352

225 232

163 165

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2022

AREA HARVESTED (million ha)

COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE

*Coarse grains: Corn, sorghum and millet, among others.

Source: FAO.

3.7

4.0

3.2

3.4

3.1

3.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.9

4.1

2014 2022

YIELD (ton/ha)



PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CEREAL

6

1,233

1,407

712 784

500 549

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2014 2022

PRODUCTION (million tonnes)


32 35

66 68

58 59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2014 2022

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (kg / person)


*Coarse grains: corn, sorghum and millet.

Source: FAO.

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

AREA (MILL. OF HAS)

Corn Wheat


PLANTED AREA AND YIELD OF CORN AND WHEAT

Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data.

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

YIELD (TON/HAS)

Corn Wheat

7

Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013).

PRODUCTION:

655 MT

CONSUMPTION:

687 MT

IMPORT:

145 MT

EXPORT:

139 MT

1) EU

133 MT 4) USA

62 MT

2) CHINA

121 MT

5) RUSSIA

38 MT

3) INDIA

95 MT

21) MEXICO

3 MT

1) CHINA

125 MT

2) EU

121 MT

3) INDIA

84 MT

4) USA

38 MT

5) RUSSIA

34 MT

1) EGYPT

8 MT 17) MEXICO

7 MT

2) BRAZIL

7 MT

3) INDONESIA

7 MT

4) JAPAN 7

MT

5) ALGERIA

6 MT

11) MEXICO

4 MT

1) USA

27 MT

2) EU

22 MT

3) AUSTRALIA

19 MT

4) CANADA

19 MT

5) RUSSIA

11 MT

16) MEXICO

1 MT


WHEAT MARKET IN 2013

6

PRODUCTION :

785 MT (+20%)

CONSUMPTION:

782 MT (+14%)

IMPORT :

150 MT (+3%)

EXPORT:

150 MT (+8%)

UE

+149 MT USA

-57 MT

CHINA

+127 MT

RUSSIA

+66 MT

INDIA

+112 MT

MEXICO

+4 MT

CHINA

+129 MT

UE

+136 MT

INDIA

+109 MT

USA

-36 MT

RUSSIA

+45 MT

EGYPT

+13 MT MEXICO

-6 MT

BRAZIL

+8 MT

INDONESIA

7 MT

JAPAN

-5 MT

ALGERIA

6 MT

MEXICO

-3 MT

USA

-24 MT

UE

-18 MT

AUSTRALIA

-17 MT

CANADA

+21 MT

RUSSIA

+21 MT

MEXICO

1 MT


WHEAT MARKET IN 2022

6

Source: CANIMOLT, with OCDE-FAO data.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014e 2021/2022e

MILLION TONS

Consumption Production Stock

STOCK CONSUMPTION

AND PRODUCTION


WHEAT PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK

Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013) and of FAO.

10

23%

26% 25%

22% 21%

27%

31% 30%

29%

26%

27% 26%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 21/22

Price HRW Price SRW Stock/consumption (%)

INTERNATIONAL

PRICE

(USD/TON)

STOCK/

INTAKE (%)

MEAN


RELATION OF WHEAT STOCK VS WHEAT PRICE

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA (August 2013).

11

55%

7%

68%

102%

66%

91%

4%

95%

26%

13%

66%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Egypt China Brazil Indonesia Algeria Japan EU-27 SouthKorea

Iran USA Mexico

2012/2013 2013/2014 Import/Consumption (%)

Import

(millions of tons)

Importation/Consump

tion (%)

FOOD

SECURITY

Just China, EU, USA have food SECURITY

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA.


WHEAT IMPORTERS AND WHEAT FOOD SECURITY

12


PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF DURUM WHEAT (PASTA)

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from IGC.

13


PRODUCTION BY VARIETY OF WHEAT AND CONSUMPTION IN DESTINY

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from OECD-FAO and the IGC.

HARD AND SOFT

(BACKERY) 95%

DURUM (PASTA)

5%

PRODUCTION 2013/2014: 713 MT

HUMAN 68%

ANIMAL FEED 20%

OTHER 12%

CONSUMPTION 2013/2014: 698 MT

36 MT 677 MT

14

88 milling plants

Installed capacity: 8.4 MT

Wheat consumption: 6.2 MT

Flour and semolina production: 4.7 MT

Northeast: 13%

North: 13%

Center-West: 23%

Metropolitan area: 33%

South-southeast: 18%

MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY 2013

Source: CANIMOLT.

15

CONCEPT 2013

M. TON

National Production 3.5

Imports 4.2

TOTAL 7.7

Exports (durum) 0.7

Feed 0.7

MILLING INDUSTRY 6.2

CHIH SON BC

JAL GTO

MICH

BC

SON

BREADMAKING WHEATS: 1.3 MT (38% prod. Nac):

Hard and medium 0.8 MT Soft 0.5 MT

DURUM WHEAT (pasta): 2.2 MT (62% domestic prod. ):

Cristalino or Durum


MÉXICO PRODUCES 56% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF INDUSTRY

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from SIAP.

16

TOTAL PRODUCTION: 3.5 MT

USA, 71%

CANADA, 24%

RUSSIA, 4%

FRANCE, 1%

TOTAL IMPORT: 4.2 MT

• USA: 2.9 MT

• Canada: 1.0 MT

• Russia: 0.2 MT

• France: 0.03 MT

ND

AB

SK MB

TX

OK

KS

NC

IL

MO

ID

WA

OR

INTERNATIONAL BASE:

• Freight to elevators

• International freight

• Internment costs

• Freight to milling plant

SHIP 72%

TRAIN 28%


MEXICO IMPORTS 44% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from Customs-SAT.

17

BREADMAKING BREADS High protein

Hard Red Spring (HRS) Canada Western Hard Red Spring (CWHRS)

Medium protein

Hard Red Winter (HRW)

Soft Soft Red Winter (SRW) Soft White (SW)

ND

AB

SK MB

TX

OK

KS

NC

IL

MO

ID

WA

OR

IMPORT: 4.2 MT

• Hard Red Spring: 1.4 MT

• Soft Red Winter 1.4 MT

• Canada Western Hard Red Spring : 1.0 MT

• Soft White: 0.03 MT

• Hard Red Spring: 0.1 MT

• Others: 0.2 MT

Other 3%

HRS 3%

SW 1%

CWHRS 24%

SRW 33%

HRW 33%

MT MN


REQUIRED QUALITY BY THE MILLING INDUSTRY

Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA.

18

BREADMAKING

5.5 MT (89%):

• High protein

• Medium protein

• Soft

PASTA 0.8 MT (11%):

• Cristalino or Durum

HIGH AND MEDIUM

PROTEIN

SOFT

CRISTALINO OR DURUM


CONSUMPTION OF WHEAT BASED PRODUCTS

19

Source: CANIMOLT.

TOTAL MILLING CONSUMPTION 2013: 6.2 MT

49%

40%

5%

6%

Cornproducts

Wheatproducts

Rice

Other


HOUSEHOLD SPENDING ON CEREALS

20

Source: INEGI.

42%

7%

15%

7%

5%

4%

4%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Corn tortilla

Corn, flour, dough,…

Sweet bread

White bread

Cookies

Sliced bread

Noodles spaghetti…

Flour tortilla

Cakes and pastries

Wheat flour

Other wheat productsSource: INEGI.


HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN CORN AND WHEAT PRODUCTS

21


SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED PRODUCTS OF WHEAT

20 Source: INEGI.

2,834

2,919

3,054

3,211 3,224 3,287

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FLOUR (Thousands de Tons)

144

169 185 179

203 191

-

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SEMOLINA (Thousands of Tons)

784

759

809 821

846 853

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

BREAD AND PASTRIES (Thousands of tons)

707 706 726 762 790 769

99 92 115

117 104 97

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

COOKIES (Thousands of tons)

SWEET SALTED


SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS

21 Source: INEGI.

304

317

327

334

347

337

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

SPAGHETTI AND PASTA (Thousands de Tons)

96 99

113

122

129 126

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FLOUR TORTILLA (Thousands of Tons)


SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS

22 Source: INEGI.

3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.7

4.2 4.8

5.6

0.44 0.25 0.08

6.8 7.4

8.0 8.7

9.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2010* 2015 2020 2025 2030

Millio

n t

on

s

PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS CONSUMPTION

Deficit

5.6 MT


FUTURE NEEDS OF WHEAT IN THE INDUSTRY

25 Source: CANIMOLT, with data from con SIAP and Customs- SAT.


STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHEAT PRODUCTION CHAIN

26

1) Increase

in Production

2) Varietal

Outline

4)

Consumption

Patterns

3) Comercial/

Productive

Model

Increase domestic production to

achieve the level of

food security in the

production chain

Defining the schema development,

management and delivery of

appropriate wheat varieties, based

on the needs of the production and

consumption

Design and development of

production models and efficient

comercialization of wheat in

Mexico

Increase per capita

consumption of wheat

products, and explore

new market niches

Source: CANIMOLT.


THE CHALLENGE

27

Imports 68% of the needs

Domestic production is

only 20% of the

requirements of

breadmaking wheats

2030 to have a deficit 5.6

million tons

Myths about the

nutritional values of

wheat, obesity and

effects of gluten.

INCREASE DOMESTIC

PRODUCTION OF BREADMAKING

WHEATS

CONSOLIDATE THE WHEAT AS THE

BASIS OF A HEALTHY DIET


CHALLENGE TO 2025

28

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