what uncertainty - lean construction institute

21
Please comply with the Lean Construction Institute’s Usage Policies and Attribution Guidelines at http://www.leanconstruction.org/usage.pdf when using this file. Thank you.

Upload: others

Post on 15-Mar-2022

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Please comply with the Lean Construction Institute’s Usage Policies and Attribution Guidelines at http://www.leanconstruction.org/usage.pdf

when using this file. Thank you.

Lean Construction as

Countermeasure

Will Lichtig Gregory A. Howell, P. E.

Boldt Construction Lean Construction Institute

5

Traditional project management: A coherent common sense

Organization Operating Commercial System

Command &

Control Activity Centered

(CPM) Transactional

5

Current Operating System: How are projects

managed today

Determine client requirements including quality, time and budget

limits. Design to meet them.

Break project into activities, estimating duration and resource requirements for each activity and placing them in a logical order with CPM

Assign or contract each activity, give start notice and monitor safety, quality, time and cost standards. Act on negative

variance from standards

Coordinate with master schedule and weekly meetings

Reduce cost by productivity improvement

Reduce duration by speeding each piece or changing logic

Improve quality and safety with inspection and enforcement

Research Finding from early 1990’s

54 %

% of Tasks Completed on

Foreman Weekly Work Plan

© 2010 Lean Construction Institute 7

O A R

© 2011 Lean Construction Institute

Last Planner® – Predictable workflow & rapid learning

Master Schedule

Lookahead Plan & Constraint Analysis

Pull Planning

Percent Plan Complete Weekly Work Planning

©Lean Construction Institute, 2011..

9

The Last Planner® System of Production Control 5 - Connected Conversations

Master Scheduling

Milestones

Set milestones & strategy Identify long lead items

SHOULD

Phase “Pull” Planning Specify handoffs Identify operational conflicts

CAN

WILL

Make Work Ready Planning

Make ready & Launch Replanning when needed

Weekly Work Planning Promise

DID Learning

Measure PPC & act on reasons for failure to keep

promises

10 © 2009 Lean Construction Institute

Three Opportunities

© 2010 Lean Construction Institute

Five Big Ideas

Collaborate; Really Collaborate

Projects as Networks of

Commitment

Increase

Relatedness

Optimize The Whole

Tightly Couple

Learning w/ Action

Replacing the old coherent common sense with the new

Organization Operating Commercial System

Command &

Control Activity Centered

(CPM) Transactional

Collaborative Flow Centered Relational (Lean)

Ends Means Uncertainty Certain Objectives Certain Objectives

Uncertain Means 1

10

5 10 Certain Mleans

• •

1

Uncertain Objectives 1 5 10 Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means Certain Means

Uncertainty about

How it to Build

Assessment of Uncertainty on Most Recent Project

Mark a “T” for

where you thought the project was at the start of

construction and

an “R” for where

you later realized it was.

Use an X if your assessment did

Aboutnot you: change. Owner ___ Designer ___ Contractor

___

Or–

About management of the project: Traditional [__] Basic Lean Construction (LPS) [___] Advanced Lean Construction LPS & IPD

Really advanced Lean Construction: LPS, IPD, TVD, Set Based Design [___] Was BIM used? Y N

Uncert

ain

ty a

bout O

bje

ctiv

es

(What) to B

uild

Uncertainty about Means (How) to Build

4.3 Average

Certain Means

5 0 Certain Objectives

0

x

xx

xxxx x x x

xxx xx xx

x

x

xxx

x xx

xxx x xx

xx x x x x

xxxx xx xxxxx xxx

xxx

x x

x

x x x x

x

x x

x

x

x

x

x x

Certain Objectives Uncertain Means 1

0

5

Wh

at

Un

certain

ty

10

11% 25% 50% 14%

22%

63%

11%

4%

Average 3.5

Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means How Uncertainty

Uncertain Objectives Certain Means

Assessment of Uncertainty at the Start of

Construction

Certain Objectives Certain Objectives Uncertain Means Certain Means

Uncertain Objectives Uncertain Means

How Uncertainty

Tails of arrows show assessment at beginning of the project and arrow heads mark later assessment. Unchanged assessments marked with “.” Uncertain Objectives

-

Certain Means

• •

What

Uncert

ain

ty

Assessment of Uncertainty on

MostLean Recent C o n s t r u c t i o n I n s t i t u t e Pro ject 1 7

Table 1,1,4gc Assessment Matrix

Probability

Certain M II

H

H

H

Likely M H

Pos.sible

14 H

Unlikely

L M H

Rare L L L M NI

Low Minor 'Moderate Major Catastrophic

Severity

Key: L=Legr, M=Moderate; H=High; E=Extremely High

Lean & Alliancing, IPD, IFOA

A New and Coherent Way to Manage Work in Projects

An activity-

centered operating system designed to optimize the project

by optimizing each activity and their relationship.

Developed Circa 1960

Strategy: Flow-

Centered

Operating

system designed

to optimize the

project not the piece