How can studying the past help us predict

the future?

What variables limit or promote the continuation of a trend?

This power point is adapted from “Track the Trends”: http://educate.intel.com/en/ProjectDesign/UnitPlanIndex/TrackTheTrends/

Collect and analyze statistical information about a topic over time.

Use the past to predict the future.

Integrate mathematics, social studies, and technology.

Crystal Ball Project

Students work in pairs to research trends from the past and using them to make predictions about the future.

Students use data to find a regression equation that represents the trend.

Students create a product, such as a power point presentation, brochure, newsletter, wiki (or other) that includes brief articles and graphs about possible effects and implications of the trend.

Students review Project Rubric and Checklists to self-assess your work as you go.

Conferences to check on progress will be scheduled.

Project Expectations

Research topics of interest and choose three so we can guarantee there is no overlap with other groups.

Some examples include: Cancer rates Population changes Baseball salaries

AIDS deaths Crime and crime rates Live Births/Deaths Divorces Education Energy consumption Gold reserves of central banks and governments Gross national product (GNP) Health expenditures Marriages Natural disasters Pollution

(1) Pick a Topic

Use the Internet and library for research.

United States Census Bureau www.census.gov* Collection of statistics covering a variety of topics

World Health Organization www.who.int/en* Statistics on health issues around

the world

Use data from at least seven separate years or time periods.

(2) Research the Topic

Use a graphing calculator to:◦ Find the equation for curve of best fit (linear, quadratic, or exponential regression)◦ Find the correlation coefficient.

Use the equation to make predictions for at least five future years or time periods.

(3) Apply Math to Data

Use the future predictions, brainstorm potential ramifications.

How might a trend affect people’s choices? What will our quality of life be like in the

future? ◦ Social◦ Environmental ◦ Economic◦ Political◦ Medical

(4) Future Implications

Make a spreadsheet with three columns:◦ Column 1 = Year ◦ Column 2 = Historical Data◦ Column 3 = Data if using formula (best fit)

Create “xy Scatter” graph of spreadsheet◦ Historical Data (points)◦ Formula Calculations (best fit line)

(5) Graph the Data

Include the following elements:◦ Data from research◦ Mathematical analysis◦ Excel graph of historical vs. best fit data◦ Discussion of future implications◦ Pictures/graphics/sounds that enhance content◦ Select internet resources for more info◦ Sources cited

Self-Assess with checklist and rubric

(6) Create a Publication

All documents will be turned in to me electronically.

Each pair will present their findings to the entire class.

Presentations must be between 4 and 6 minutes.

(7) Present to Class

Already Know: Scatterplots

Positive and Negative Trends Use of Internet to do Research

Areas of Concern: Types of Regression Calculator Usage Use of Spreadsheet Software

Expectations

Common Core Algebra Standards:

Interpret functions that arise in applications in terms of context. Emphasize selection of appropriate modelsF.IF. 4,5 Analyze functions using different representations. Focus on using key features to guide selection of appropriate type of model functionF.IF. 7c, 8b

Build a function that models a relationship between two quantities. (+)F.BF.1c Build new functions from existing functions. (+) F. BF. 4b, 4c, 4d, 5

Construct and compare linear, quadratic, and exponential models and solve problems. Logarithmic as solutions for exponentialsF.LE.4

Math Standards

Social Studies Skills for the 21st Century:

Analyze and draw conclusions about the location of places, the condition at places and the connections between places.

Trace and describe continuity and change across cultures.

Analyze, interpret, and synthesize social studies information to make inferences and draw conclusions.

Other Standards