What we want to use MC1 for:

  Uncertain as to what to expect, climate-wise, for a specific plot of land.

  Even more uncertainty as to managing the natural resources for which that land is set aside given: ◦  “guaranteed” climate

change ◦  future climate

uncertainties

  11,455 ha   inherently

variable climate   prairie-forest

border   prairie dogs and

black-footed ferrets

  genetically important bison herd

  elk and pronghorn mandated

  world’s fourth-largest cave contains 95% of world’s known boxwork

Dura%on and frequency change li3le; intensity increases slightly because of increased temperature.

Precipita%on seasonality shi<s so that winter to summer ra%o increases.  Summer events are more intense and less frequent

Precipita%on seasonality,  intensity, and frequency change li3le from historical pa3erns.

Base Case Increased evapora%on decreases plant produc%vity somewhat;  ecosystem 

change occurs, but more slowly  and/or to lesser degree than in other scenarios.

Novel Ecosystem Climate changes quickly to something like SW U.S. and species migra%on cannot keep up.  Pine decreases 

substan%ally especially if crown fire occurs (which is more likely).  Water table drops; streams go from perennial to intermi3ent or gone.  Soil erosion increases.  Many fauna 

may not be sustainable.

Shrubland Shrubs replace grasses in grassland; ecosystem becomes more suscep%ble to annual grass invaders.  Fate of pines and other trees uncertain.  Soil erosion increases.  Water table and streamflow fate depends on whether recharge 

or loss occurs during winter.  Faunal composi%on  changes.

Shortgrass Prairie Forest is more restricted by moisture than currently.  Megafauna  capacity decreases 

because forage produc%on is lower.  Water table drops; spring and stream flow decreases or 

ceases, depending on loca%on. Pre

cipi

tatio

n

P

atte

rns

Drought Severity Today’s  “moderate” droughts  become the norm and today’s “extreme” droughts become more common. 

  Are all the scenarios plausible?   Which is/are the most likely to occur?   Are there specific management actions that

might accentuate or dampen effects of changing climate on vegetation?

  producing quantitative simulations of vegetation change in different CO2 scenarios ◦  checking plausibility of scenarios ◦  deriving management implications

  evaluating the effects of different management actions on vegetation in those scenarios ◦  prescribed fire/fire suppression ◦  bison, elk, and prairie dog population sizes

  evaluating management implications derived through scenario planning only.