what’s climate got to do with it? · •weather: conditions at a specific location and time...
TRANSCRIPT
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Trevor Murdock
29 November 2018 Getting Climate Ready – Adaptation Tools for Northwest Communities Terrace, BC
What’s Climate Got To Do With It?
Nutrition Facts Serving Size 1 presentation
Amount Per Serving
Slides 26 Minutes 30
% Daily Value*
Maps 6 300%
Plots 2 80%
Photos 7 50%
Cartoons 0 0%
Humour 5% ?
* Percent Daily Values are based on a diet of a one day workshop
Taking future climate into account is
necessary
possible
December 2nd 2005
• 6°C snowing in ______
• 19°C sunny in ______
Climate: long term statistics of weather
Weather: conditions at a specific location & time
Victoria Montreal
• Weather: conditions at a specific location and time – December 2nd 2005
• 6°C snowing in Victoria
• 19°C sunny in Montreal
• Climate: long term statistics of weather – 1971-2000 average December
Climate: Long Term Statistics of Weather
Temperature Anomaly °C
Climate varies by location & with time
Temperature Anomaly °C
Climate Varies by Location and with Time
Temperature Anomaly °C
Climate Varies by Location and with Time
a) Yogi Berra
b) Albert Einstein
c) Mark Twain
d) Winston Churchill
e) George Bernard Shaw
f) Niels Bohr
g) Will Rogers
h) Enrico Fermi
i) Dan Quayle
j) Woody Allen
k) Confucius
“Prediction is hard, especially about the future”
a) Yogi Berra
b) Albert Einstein
c) Mark Twain
Past Minor reductions (RCP8.5) Paris commitments (RCP4.5) Paris goal (RCP2.6)
Future Warming in BC
Increased hot days
Increased hot days
Days above 25°C
More frequent and more intense wet days
Bella Coola Sept 2010
More frequent and more intense wet days
Wettest day of the year
Fewer frost days
Central Interior 2013 https://news.ubc.ca/2013/03/26/mountain-pine-beetle-genome-decoded/
Fewer days below freezing
Days colder than 0°C
• Make use of available climate information
• Consider a range of future projections
• Practice cross-disciplinary engagement
• Iteration, iteration, iteration
Best practices for considering future climate
Email [email protected]
More information www.PacificClimate.org Climate Insights 101 http://pics.uvic.ca/education/climate-insights-101#quicktabs-climate_insights_101=1 BC Regional Adaptation Collaborative https://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/ccaq_bcrac.html
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Questions or feedback?
Thank You
Online adaptation tools webinar https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxj-3gPkDW4
• Plan2Adapt
• Regional Analysis Tool
• ClimateBC / ClimateWNA / HectaresBC / BC Climate Explorer
• PCIC data portals
– BC station data
– High-resolution PRISM climatology
– Statistically downscaled climate scenarios
– VIC hydrological model output (gridded)
– Station hydrological model output
• Seasonal maps
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PCIC* climate tools for BC
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Primary* audiences
Ease of use Flexibility Type of output
Plan2Adapt Planners Decision-makers Consultants
Easy Low Summary table Maps Possible impacts
Regional Analysis Tool Impacts researchers Engineers
Difficult Medium
High Maps Plots Regional analysis
PCIC data portals Impacts researchers Hydrologists Consultants
Medium Medium Data
Seasonal maps Managers Easy Low Maps
ClimateBC ClimateWNA HectaresBC Databasin
Foresters Ecologists Impacts researchers
Medium High Data Maps
BC Climate Explorer Foresters, general Easy Medium Maps Plots
PCIC* climate tools for BC
• Educational/background
• CBC podcast mini series
• Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS): Climate Insights 101
• What if climate change is real? – Katherine Hayhoe Ted Talk
• Adaptation guidance
• PICS adaptation in buildings infographic
• Infrastructure Canada Climate Lens
• BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure Technical Circular
• EGBC guidance document
• Climate / engineering language primer
• National guidebook on climate scenarios
More resources
• Climate Projections Reports released by regional districts
• Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District
• Climate Projections for the Capital Region
• Climate Projections for Metro Vancouver
• Climate Projections for Whistler
• City of Vancouver Climate Impacts Summary
• Webinar: Three important factors for adaptation: location, location, location https://goo.gl/cVWJZ1
And even more resources
2015 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/2015_Year_in_Review-Final.pdf
2016 https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2016/bc-track-set-new-temperature-record-2016 and https://www.pacificclimate.org/news-and-events/news/2017/climate-variability-hot-cold-winter-%E2%80%9916-%E2%80%9817
2017 https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/PCIC_Update_Mar_2018.pdf
2015 / 2016 /2017 weather events, seasons
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Past Past(updated)
2020s 2050s 2080s
Un
met
Co
olin
g H
ou
rs
Steo 2 Step 3 Step 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
Past 2020s 2050s 2080s
EUI (
kWh
r/m
2)
Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
Energy Use Unmet Cooling Hours
Source: UBC (Campus and Community Planning) with RDH Building Science
Northwest: warming across all seasons
Northwest: wetter especially in spring & autumn
