what’s hot and what’s not!!!!files.meetup.com/81154/hill,tom_20090422_what's hot and... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
For educational purposes only 14222009 TGHill
Whatrsquos Hot and Whatrsquos NotNote This presentation and discussion are
bull For educational purposes only
bull Do your own due diligence and have a plan before you place any money at risk
bull Get help from a financial advisor if you havenrsquot learned how to invest profitably
bull Your Moneyhellipyour responsibilityndash Investing takes time and effort and is not as easy as it is often
made out to be
bull The presenter may buy or sell the stocks mentioned without notice The author can be a very active trader and seldom owns positions in stocks for more than 3 days
For educational purposes only 24222009 TGHill
Whatrsquos Hot and Whatrsquos Not
Macro Trends Macro Money
6-24 month timeframe+
Both positive and negative
Keep track of them
First question is Where are we Toto
Second question Hope rhymes with
For educational purposes only 34222009 TGHill
ldquoThere is a time for being long a time for being short and a time
to go fishingrdquo hellip Jesse Livermore
For educational purposes only 4
100 Retracement of Breakdown
-Broke an IT downtrend Line
-28 move from March 9th Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 5
Market Very Overbought Currently
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 24222009 TGHill
Whatrsquos Hot and Whatrsquos Not
Macro Trends Macro Money
6-24 month timeframe+
Both positive and negative
Keep track of them
First question is Where are we Toto
Second question Hope rhymes with
For educational purposes only 34222009 TGHill
ldquoThere is a time for being long a time for being short and a time
to go fishingrdquo hellip Jesse Livermore
For educational purposes only 4
100 Retracement of Breakdown
-Broke an IT downtrend Line
-28 move from March 9th Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 5
Market Very Overbought Currently
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 34222009 TGHill
ldquoThere is a time for being long a time for being short and a time
to go fishingrdquo hellip Jesse Livermore
For educational purposes only 4
100 Retracement of Breakdown
-Broke an IT downtrend Line
-28 move from March 9th Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 5
Market Very Overbought Currently
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 4
100 Retracement of Breakdown
-Broke an IT downtrend Line
-28 move from March 9th Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 5
Market Very Overbought Currently
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 5
Market Very Overbought Currently
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 6
A Falling VIX is Bullish
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 7
BIG $$$ Changes are Underway in US monetary policy
4222009 TGHill
Filling the hole in the banking system
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 8
Interest Rates are the lowest in MY lifetime
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 9
CASH was King
4222009 TGHill
Blow off top
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 10
CYCLES
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 11
Going forward
Starts will be dropping from the Basement Window
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 124222009 TGHill
30909
forward
Bottoming action
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 13
Why this may not be ldquoJust a Bear Market Rallyrdquo
4222009 TGHill
bull Elimination of Mark to Market Complete
bull Up Tick Rule re-established 5 Months to implement
bull Elimination of Naked Shorting Lenders woke up
bull Elimination of ldquoBearrdquo ETFs Being discussed
- Shorting was once the purview of the professional
- Too risky for IRAs and Non margined accounts )
bull New Administration now gets it
bull In Sourcingbring work back to the USA A TARP provision
bull Mid term elections only18 months away
ndash Markets usually do better under democrats
bull The money being pumped into the economy may find its way into market
ndash Market may like higher rates as indication of an economy getting better
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 14
What approach to useValue
Momentum
Index ETF
4222009 TGHill
My plan of operation was
Initial move hellipI used Major Index ETFrsquos off the bottom
- Too tough to pick the reversal winners
SSO UYG QLD DXO
2nd movehellipNow I have shifted into individual stocks and Sector ETFs
2003 strategy
Stocks making HH HL with air above
Looking at stocks that have big retracements
Big insider buying a plus
Cash on the balance sheet
Sector analysis is always helpful hellipbut hellipBar by Bar is key for me
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 15
Off to the races watch the Baltic Dry Index
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 16
Bases being builtbreakout rejected
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 174222009 TGHill
Positive Trends Evident in 2009
Theme Sectors Stocks
Emerging
MarketsCountry ETF
Energy
EPI FXI INP
EWZ RSX
Tech QQQQ QLD AAPL RIMM etc
Stuff DBA DBB DBC OIH FCX HAL BHP
Banks XLF IYG UYG BAC WFC GS
MShellip
CO2 PBW PBD TAN JCI GE PWR
Pessimism Widespread Lots of Wait + See
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 18
Country ETFs from March Low
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 19
Major Sectors
4222009 TGHill
Pick a
family of
ETFs
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 20
The Best from 309 bottom
4222009 TGHill
ETFs Industries
Stocks
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 21
Deacutejagrave View 7-28-08 Hot List
4222009 TGHill
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS
For educational purposes only 225132008 TGHill
Negative Trends Evident in 2008
Everyone is worrying about everythinghellip
So no need for me to be negative
Anything Positive Happening
helliphelliphelliphelliphelliphellipIDEAS