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6 October 2015
What’s the promise of the
Internet of Things?
Tim Ensor
6 October 2015 2
What is the Internet of Things?
6 October 2015 3
What is the Internet of Things?
>> I’m fine… >> Getting quite full now…
>> I need emptying please! >> Help!!
6 October 2015 4
Over the last few year’s the hype around the Internet of Things has been growing
Ericsson, 2010
6 October 2015 5
Over the last few year’s the hype around the Internet of Things has been growing
Gartner, 2014
Exp
ecta
tio
n
Time
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of
Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
IoT
5-10 years
Hype Cycle
6 October 2015 6
The IoT offers the ability to provide new customer services and experiences with a future
market predicted to be worth $6-14Tn…
IoT Market Size Data Growth
$ (by 2025) # devices (by 2020) (2013-2020)
$6.1T
$7.1T
$14.4T
26B
32B
50B
10x
Total Data
4.4ZB to 44ZB
>40x
IoT Data
0.1ZB to 4.4ZB
ZB = zettabyte = 1021 bytes = 1000 billion gigabytes
6 October 2015 7
…but there are those who raise concerns about its viability
Is it private?
Is it secure?
How can I manage this complex eco system?
Who owns the data?
How do I deal with all this data?
What is the business model for this?
Where will the IoT end up, and how can we benefit from it?
6 October 2015 8
The Internet, conceived of in 1980s, can give us some indicators of where IoT may be in
~20 years (or less)
Disconnected research
networks
Protocols start to
standarize (NCP, X25
etc)
1983: ARPANET uses
TCP/IP in US
1980 1990 2000 2010
Emergence of
ISPs
Internet fully
commercialised
in US in 1995
eCommerce a
significant focus
Web 2.0 allows
customisation
Social networks
and content
sharing
On-demand
media streaming
Standardisation 1 Unbundling 2 Service Evolution 3
6 October 2015 9
Looking ahead, the future development of IoT may follow a similar path
IoT Future
Standardisation?
Unbundling?
Service Evolution? IoT OTT?
Closed systems with
concerns over data
Unbundled data
exchange?
Single service offerings
Fragmented
deployments Common protocol?
IoT Today 1
2
3
6 October 2015 10
Today we still see a large number of protocols being used for internet access even
though the core transport protocols have standardised… 1
6 October 2015 11
…similarly, we see a large number of protocols being used for IoT access, this is likely to
remain the same
Focus on the best approach for each use case; don’t wait for standards
1
6 October 2015 12
As with the move to Web 2.0, the ability to create new services based on a “mash-up” of
other services needs access across multiple data sources
[picture of permissions screen from iPhone]
2
6 October 2015 13
As with the move to Web 2.0, the ability to create new services based on a “mash-up” of
other services needs access across multiple data sources 2
6 October 2015 14
As with the move to Web 2.0, the ability to create new services based on a “mash-up” of
other services needs access across multiple data sources 2
6 October 2015 15
As with the emergence of ISPs, do we need an entity
to mediate this data exchange? 2
6 October 2015 16
As with the emergence of ISPs, do we need an entity
to mediate this data exchange? 2
6 October 2015 17
The development of OTT services have come to dominate the underlying assets that
enable the Internet 3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Online gaming
File sharing
Web, email, and data
Internet video
67,000
86,500
111,600
41,300
52,100
33,500
+230%
Monthly Global Internet Data (PB)
Source: Cisco VNI
6 October 2015 18
This is unlikely for IoT in the near future, but bundled “OTT” services
are likely to offer additional revenue for IoT players 3
>> Can I get some more washing powder?
>> Looks like the boiler needs a service >> Do you want me to arrange that for you?
>> Mum’s not turned the
light on for a while >> I’ll message John to let him know…
6 October 2015 19
So, what might be the impact on business?
Source: Newspaper Association of America, Carpe Diem Blog
$20bn
$40bn
$60bn
$80bn
$0bn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
$65.8bn
$17.3bn
$23.6bn
Print advertising
Newspaper Ad Revenue (2013 USD)
6 October 2015 20
So, what might be the impact on business?
Source: Newspaper Association of America, Carpe Diem Blog
$20bn
$40bn
$60bn
$80bn
$0bn
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
$17.3bn
$23.6bn
Print advertising Print, digital and other
Newspaper Ad Revenue (2013 USD)
6 October 2015 21
In some sectors, things may be similarly
dramatic for IoT
6 October 2015 22
The key question to ask is – what are my customers
actually buying?
6 October 2015 23
IoT is both an opportunity and threat for business now and will determine corporate
outcomes over the next 5-10 years
# Products Revenue Valuation Revenue Multiple
2 ~$0.3Bn $3.2Bn
(Jan 2014)
With IoT
10x
300 page catalogue $3.4Bn $3.3Bn
(July 2015)
Without IoT
<1x
6 October 2015 24
What can you do if you’re a mature player new to IoT?
6 October 2015 25
What can you do if you’re a mature player new to IoT?
6 October 2015 26
The Promise of Internet of Things is being realised now
Based on the history of how the internet emerged, we can see that companies most likely
to succeed in IoT will be those that:
Don’t wait for more standards to emerge in access technology, but pick the right
technology for their usecase
Think about emergent user services beyond what their own business might provide
today
Consider how to offer bundled services as well as positioning themselves to
influence a future ecosystem using their infrastructure
3
2
1
Achieving this needs a focus on both User Service and Technology Enablers
6 October 2015 27
Questions
Tim Ensor
Head of Connected Devices
>> Thank you. >> Any questions?
6 October 2015
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