what’s happening to the economy? steven deller department of agricultural and applied economics...

What’s happening to the economy?

Steven DellerDepartment of Agricultural and Applied Economics

University of Wisconsin-Madison/Extension

EconomicsThe Science of Explaining Tomorrow Why the Forecasts You Made Yesterday did Not Come True Today

What’s happening to the economy?

1.What’s happening at the national level?

2.What’s happening at the local level?

3.What are the strengths of the local economy?

1975-01-01

1976-05-01

1977-09-01

1979-01-01

1980-05-01

1981-09-01

1983-01-01

1984-05-01

1985-09-01

1987-01-01

1988-05-01

1989-09-01

1991-01-01

1992-05-01

1993-09-01

1995-01-01

1996-05-01

1997-09-01

1999-01-01

2000-05-01

2001-09-01

2003-01-01

2004-05-01

2005-09-01

2007-01-01

2008-05-01

2009-09-01

2011-01-01

2012-05-01

2013-09-0150

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

All-Transactions House Price Index for the U.S.

1975-01-01

1976-05-01

1977-09-01

1979-01-01

1980-05-01

1981-09-01

1983-01-01

1984-05-01

1985-09-01

1987-01-01

1988-05-01

1989-09-01

1991-01-01

1992-05-01

1993-09-01

1995-01-01

1996-05-01

1997-09-01

1999-01-01

2000-05-01

2001-09-01

2003-01-01

2004-05-01

2005-09-01

2007-01-01

2008-05-01

2009-09-01

2011-01-01

2012-05-01

2013-09-0150

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

All-Transactions House Price Index for the U.S.

Classic example of a “bubble” in the market

1983-01-01

1984-02-01

1985-03-01

1986-04-01

1987-05-01

1988-06-01

1989-07-01

1990-08-01

1991-09-01

1992-10-01

1993-11-01

1994-12-01

1996-01-01

1997-02-01

1998-03-01

1999-04-01

2000-05-01

2001-06-01

2002-07-01

2003-08-01

2004-09-01

2005-10-01

2006-11-01

2007-12-01

2009-01-01

2010-02-01

2011-03-01

2012-04-01

2013-05-01

2014-06-01-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

1991-01-01

1991-10-01

1992-07-01

1993-04-01

1994-01-01

1994-10-01

1995-07-01

1996-04-01

1997-01-01

1997-10-01

1998-07-01

1999-04-01

2000-01-01

2000-10-01

2001-07-01

2002-04-01

2003-01-01

2003-10-01

2004-07-01

2005-04-01

2006-01-01

2006-10-01

2007-07-01

2008-04-01

2009-01-01

2009-10-01

2010-07-01

2011-04-01

2012-01-01

2012-10-01

2013-07-01

2014-04-010

2

4

6

8

10

12

Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial BanksDelinquency Rate On Credit Card Loans, All Commercial BanksDelinquency Rate On Business Loans, All Commercial BanksDelinquency Rate On Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks

Bank Loan Delinquency Rates

1980-01-02

1981-06-02

1982-11-02

1984-04-02

1985-09-02

1987-02-02

1988-07-02

1989-12-02

1991-05-02

1992-10-02

1994-03-02

1995-08-02

1997-01-02

1998-06-02

1999-11-02

2001-04-02

2002-09-02

2004-02-02

2005-07-02

2006-12-02

2008-05-02100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks

9/11Notice the scale

1980-01-02

1981-10-02

1983-07-02

1985-04-02

1987-01-02

1988-10-02

1990-07-02

1992-04-02

1994-01-02

1995-10-02

1997-07-02

1999-04-02

2001-01-02

2002-10-02

2004-07-02

2006-04-02

2008-01-02

2009-10-02

2011-07-02

2013-04-02

2015-01-02100

600

1100

1600

2100

2600

3100

3600

Cash Assets, All Commercial Banks

9/11

Retail banks writing mortgages: primary market.

Secondary banks buying and “bundling” into investments.

These “bundled” investments where then sold to investors.

Insurance companies writing policies on these “bundled” investments.

“Futures” market on

these “bundles”

Credit rating agencies: Standard and Poor’s along with Moody’s: AAA credit rating!

How does an economist measure the performance of the economy?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

GDP = C + G + I + NX

1947-01-01

1949-03-01

1951-05-01

1953-07-01

1955-09-01

1957-11-01

1960-01-01

1962-03-01

1964-05-01

1966-07-01

1968-09-01

1970-11-01

1973-01-01

1975-03-01

1977-05-01

1979-07-01

1981-09-01

1983-11-01

1986-01-01

1988-03-01

1990-05-01

1992-07-01

1994-09-01

1996-11-01

1999-01-01

2001-03-01

2003-05-01

2005-07-01

2007-09-01

2009-11-01

2012-01-01

2014-03-010

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

US Gross Domestic Product ($B)

Real (2009) Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product

Great Recession

What is the Difference Between Nominal and Real?


Measuring inflation is a difficult problem for government statisticians. To do this, a number of goods that are representative of the economy are put together into what is referred to as a "market basket." The cost of this basket is then compared over time. This results in a price index, which is the cost of the market basket today as a percentage of the cost of that identical basket in the starting year.

In North America, there are two main price indexes that measure inflation:

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - A measure of price changes in consumer goods and services such as gasoline, food, clothing and automobiles. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the purchaser. U.S. The “weights” are predetermined by the BLS

GDP Price Deflator (GDPPD) -the GDP deflator (implicit price deflator) is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy. The “weight” are allowed to vary depending on the contribution to GDP.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/cpi.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/ppi.asp

1947-04-01

1949-04-01

1951-04-01

1953-04-01

1955-04-01

1957-04-01

1959-04-01

1961-04-01

1963-04-01

1965-04-01

1967-04-01

1969-04-01

1971-04-01

1973-04-01

1975-04-01

1977-04-01

1979-04-01

1981-04-01

1983-04-01

1985-04-01

1987-04-01

1989-04-01

1991-04-01

1993-04-01

1995-04-01

1997-04-01

1999-04-01

2001-04-01

2003-04-01

2005-04-01

2007-04-01

2009-04-01

2011-04-01

2013-04-01-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

GDP Price Deflater vs CPI

GDP PI CPI

CPI much more volatile: energy and food

2000-01-01

2000-07-01

2001-01-01

2001-07-01

2002-01-01

2002-07-01

2003-01-01

2003-07-01

2004-01-01

2004-07-01

2005-01-01

2005-07-01

2006-01-01

2006-07-01

2007-01-01

2007-07-01

2008-01-01

2008-07-01

2009-01-01

2009-07-01

2010-01-01

2010-07-01

2011-01-01

2011-07-01

2012-01-01

2012-07-01

2013-01-01

2013-07-01

2014-01-01

2014-07-018,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

US Gross Domestic Product ($B)

Real (2009) Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product


Measures of Unemployment:

U1:Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.

U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.

U3: Official unemployment rate occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.

U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.

U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

1994-01-01

1994-09-01

1995-05-01

1996-01-01

1996-09-01

1997-05-01

1998-01-01

1998-09-01

1999-05-01

2000-01-01

2000-09-01

2001-05-01

2002-01-01

2002-09-01

2003-05-01

2004-01-01

2004-09-01

2005-05-01

2006-01-01

2006-09-01

2007-05-01

2008-01-01

2008-09-01

2009-05-01

2010-01-01

2010-09-01

2011-05-01

2012-01-01

2012-09-01

2013-05-01

2014-01-010.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0Unemployment Rate

Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE#1)Unemployment Rate - Job Losers (UNRATE#2)Unemployment Rate: Unemployed and Discouraged Workers (UNRATE#4)

1948-01-01

1950-03-01

1952-05-01

1954-07-01

1956-09-01

1958-11-01

1961-01-01

1963-03-01

1965-05-01

1967-07-01

1969-09-01

1971-11-01

1974-01-01

1976-03-01

1978-05-01

1980-07-01

1982-09-01

1984-11-01

1987-01-01

1989-03-01

1991-05-01

1993-07-01

1995-09-01

1997-11-01

2000-01-01

2002-03-01

2004-05-01

2006-07-01

2008-09-01

2010-11-01

2013-01-01

2015-03-010.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

US Unemployment Rate

Civilian Unemployment Rate

1990-01-01

1990-11-01

1991-09-01

1992-07-01

1993-05-01

1994-03-01

1995-01-01

1995-11-01

1996-09-01

1997-07-01

1998-05-01

1999-03-01

2000-01-01

2000-11-01

2001-09-01

2002-07-01

2003-05-01

2004-03-01

2005-01-01

2005-11-01

2006-09-01

2007-07-01

2008-05-01

2009-03-01

2010-01-01

2010-11-01

2011-09-01

2012-07-01

2013-05-01

2014-03-01

2015-01-010.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Shawano County Unemployment

WISC ShawanoMoving average (Shawano) US

2000-12-01

2001-06-01

2001-12-01

2002-06-01

2002-12-01

2003-06-01

2003-12-01

2004-06-01

2004-12-01

2005-06-01

2005-12-01

2006-06-01

2006-12-01

2007-06-01

2007-12-01

2008-06-01

2008-12-01

2009-06-01

2009-12-01

2010-06-01

2010-12-01

2011-06-01

2011-12-01

2012-06-01

2012-12-01

2013-06-01

2013-12-01

2014-06-01

2014-12-010

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Source of Unemployment

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges: Total Nonfarm

Firms stop hiring.


Measures of Employment:

The payroll survey estimates the nation’s employment based on responses from a sample of about 400,000 business establishments, which account for about one-third of total nonfarm payroll employment. With a lag of about one year, the BLS revises the payroll estimate to an almost-complete count of U.S. payroll employment; this results in what is known as the “benchmark revision.”

The household survey, in contrast, estimates the nation’s employment based on responses from interviews with approximately 60,000 households; the BLS then inflates the survey data by the most recent estimates of the population. Unlike the payroll survey, the raw household survey data are not revised, but the population estimates used to inflate them are occasionally updated to incorporate new information from censuses and new estimates of immigration.



QCEW is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The program originated in the 1930s, and was known as the ES-202 program until 2003 when the current QCEW name was adopted. The primary economic product is the tabulation of employment and wages of establishments which report to the Unemployment Insurance (UI) programs of the United States. Employment covered by these UI programs represents about 99.7% of all wage and salary civilian employment in the country.



What is included in the definition?

“Non-farm” employment,“Civilian” employment“Private Sector” employment“Wage and Salary” employment

How are the self-employed counted?

1948-01-01

1950-02-01

1952-03-01

1954-04-01

1956-05-01

1958-06-01

1960-07-01

1962-08-01

1964-09-01

1966-10-01

1968-11-01

1970-12-01

1973-01-01

1975-02-01

1977-03-01

1979-04-01

1981-05-01

1983-06-01

1985-07-01

1987-08-01

1989-09-01

1991-10-01

1993-11-01

1995-12-01

1998-01-01

2000-02-01

2002-03-01

2004-04-01

2006-05-01

2008-06-01

2010-07-01

2012-08-0140000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000Employment (Firm vs Household Survey)

All Employment Non-Farm (Firm) Civilian Employment (Household)

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

Employment Growth Index

US WI Shawano/Menominee

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 5990

95

100

105

110

115Job Recovery for Wisconsin Last Three Recessions

2001 Recession

“Great Recession”

1990 Recession

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Population--Employment Ratio


19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Per Capita Income (2009$)


19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Per Capita Income Shawano/Menominee

"Nominal Dollars" "Real Dollars"

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

Per Capita Income as a Percent of US

WI Shawano/Menominee

Wages and Salaries

Other Labor Income

Proprietors Income

Dividends, Interest and Rent

Govt Transfers

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Sources of Income 2013

Shawano/Menominee WI US

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Sources of Income (2009$)

Wages and Salaries Other Labor IncomeProprietors Income Dividends, Interest and RentGovt Transfers

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

90

110

130

150

170

190

210



FarmForestry Fishing, Related Activities

MiningUtilities

ConstructionManufacturing

WholesaleRetail

Transportation and WarehousingInformation

Finance and InsuranceReal Estate, Rental and Leasing

Professional and Technical ServicesManagement of Companies

Administrative and Waste ManagementEducational Services

Health Care and Social ServicesArts, Entertainment and Recreation

Accommodations and Food ServicesOther Services except Public Administration

Federal Civilian GovernmentFederal Military

State/Local Government

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Distribution of Employment (2012)

Shawano/Menominee WI US

Farm

Forestry Fishing, Related Activities

Mining

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Transportation and Warehousing

Information

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate, Rental and Leasing

Professional and Technical Services

Management of Companies

Administrative and Waste Management

Educational Services

Health Care and Social Services

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

Accommodations and Food Services

Other Services except Public Administration

Federal Civilian Government

Federal Military

State/Local Government

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

LQ Based on Wisconsin (2012)

Cluster Identification∆LQ

LQ

Strength and Growing“Cluster”

Strength but Declining“Threat”

Weakness but Growing“Opportunity”

Weakness and Declining“???”

Porter (2000, p254) “A cluster is a geographically proximate group of interconnected companies and associated institutions in a particular field, linked by commonalities and complementaries.” Rosenfeld (1997, p4) “A cluster is very simply used to represent concentration of firms that are able to produce synergy because of their geographic proximity and interdependence, even though their scale of employment may not be pronounced or prominent.”

Feser (1998, p20) “Economic clusters are not just related and supporting industries and institutions, but rather related and supporting institutions that are more competitive by virtue of their relationships.”

What is an Economic Cluster?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

State and Local Govt

Cluster Analysis: 2002 to 2012∆LQ

LQ

Forestry Fishing, Related Activities

Farming

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4

-0.3

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Cluster Analysis: 2002 to 2012

∆LQ

LQ

Health Care and Social Services

Manufacturing

Cluster Analysis Shawano and Menominee

LQ 2012 ∆LQShare of

Employment

Strength and GrowingFarm 3.302 0.144 8.8State/Local Government 2.011 -0.004 22.1

Strength and DecliningForestry Fishing, Related Activities 7.865 -1.504 3.2Federal Military 1.220 -0.062 0.6

Weakness but GrowingOther Services except Public Administration 0.987 0.020 5.1Construction 0.970 0.015 4.2Retail 0.900 0.005 9.5Health Care and Social Services 0.825 0.174 9.6Manufacturing 0.801 0.114 10.4Transportation and Warehousing 0.688 0.053 2.2Finance and Insurance 0.587 0.076 3.2Administrative and Waste Management 0.502 0.048 2.6Educational Services 0.401 0.069 0.8

Weakness and DecliningAccommodations and Food Services 0.900 -0.116 6.2Wholesale 0.869 -0.123 3.1Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 0.857 -0.127 1.7Information 0.756 -0.044 1.2Federal Civilian Government 0.682 -0.047 0.6Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 0.668 -0.132 2.3Professional and Technical Services 0.436 -0.098 2.0Mining 0.325 -0.146 0.1Utilities 0.283 -0.011 0.1Management of Companies 0.227 -0.276 0.3

19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

440

Health Care and Social Assistance Employment Growth Index


19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Manufacturing Employment Growth Index


19701972

19741976

19781980

19821984

19861988

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450


Health Care Manufacturing

Top 25 Shawno Cnty Industries by Employment

EmploymentIndustry

RevenuesLabor Income Total Income

Revenue per Workers

Labor Income per Worker

Support activities for agriculture and forestry 1,079 40.3 27.9 29.4 37,344 25,818

Dairy cattle and milk production 1,058 169.4 35.3 76.5 160,074 33,320

Local Govt, non-education 1,023 52.2 43.9 52.2 50,978 42,901

Local Govt, education 1,004 64.2 54.6 64.2 63,884 54,404

Full-service restaurants 716 27.1 8.8 10.5 37,803 12,308

Other local government enterprises 708 172.2 33.4 48.4 243,204 47,182

Nursing and community care facilities 634 34.1 18.9 19.4 53,758 29,801

Wholesale trade 627 120.2 36.0 70.7 191,521 57,384

Ferrous metal foundries 545 129.5 30.1 34.1 237,904 55,295

All other crop farming 470 46.9 16.5 28.1 99,702 35,157

Real estate 430 85.6 1.9 70.6 198,856 4,512

Retail - General merchandise stores 418 27.0 11.2 15.8 64,529 26,747

Limited-service restaurants 413 21.4 8.9 13.0 51,895 21,538

Hospitals 375 44.5 21.9 22.3 118,830 58,464

Plastics packaging materials and unlaminated film and sheet manufacturing 346 141.3 17.7 37.4 407,961 51,005

Truck transportation 335 53.3 23.8 24.7 158,901 70,837

Individual and family services 324 10.2 5.7 5.8 31,614 17,640

Retail - Nonstore retailers 291 24.8 2.1 11.5 85,137 7,201

Retail - Food and beverage stores 261 14.2 5.8 8.1 54,372 22,116

Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services 250 12.8 5.8 8.6 51,080 23,331

Offices of physicians 246 20.3 13.7 10.6 82,649 55,685

Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes 237 22.0 13.6 15.0 92,476 57,452

Business and professional associations 230 8.5 7.8 3.8 37,010 33,907

Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation 225 32.9 10.0 14.2 146,250 44,324

Retail - Miscellaneous store retailers 203 6.5 3.4 3.6 31,961 16,754

Top 25 Shawno Cnty Industries by Industry Revenue

EmploymentIndustry


Revenue per Workers






Wholesale trade 627 120.2 36.0 70.7 191,521 57,384

Real estate 430 85.6 1.9 70.6 198,856 4,512

Meat processed from carcasses 179 83.9 8.5 12.5 468,546 47,335




Polish and other sanitation good manufacturing 53 50.4 13.7 27.0 942,421 255,954

Pharmaceutical preparation manufacturing 42 47.9 4.7 14.0 1,138,876 111,695


Hospitals 375 44.5 21.9 22.3 118,830 58,464

Creamery butter manufacturing 27 42.9 1.3 5.4 1,574,333 48,733

Sawmills 186 42.8 6.9 7.3 229,710 36,847


Grain farming 105 37.3 1.2 0.0 356,867 11,772

Beef cattle ranching and farming, including feedlots and dual-purpose ranching and farming114 34.5 5.4 13.9 303,938 47,116



Construction of other new residential structures 119 30.6 9.1 9.2 257,892 76,952

Veneer and plywood manufacturing 126 28.6 5.3 6.3 227,103 42,280

Showcase, partition, shelving, and locker manufacturing 162 27.1 5.9 6.4 167,166 36,497


Top 25 Shawno Cnty Industries by Labor Income

EmploymentIndustry


Revenue per Workers




Wholesale trade 627 120.2 36.0 70.7 191,521 57,384






Hospitals 375 44.5 21.9 22.3 118,830 58,464




Offices of physicians 246 20.3 13.7 10.6 82,649 55,685

Polish and other sanitation good manufacturing 53 50.4 13.7 27.0 942,421 255,954

Automotive repair and maintenance, except car washes 237 22.0 13.6 15.0 92,476 57,452

Retail - General merchandise stores 418 27.0 11.2 15.8 64,529 26,747


Machine shops 110 19.0 9.3 9.9 172,380 83,998

Construction of other new residential structures 119 30.6 9.1 9.2 257,892 76,952

Limited-service restaurants 413 21.4 8.9 13.0 51,895 21,538


Meat processed from carcasses 179 83.9 8.5 12.5 468,546 47,335

Business and professional associations 230 8.5 7.8 3.8 37,010 33,907

Retail - Motor vehicle and parts dealers 178 17.8 7.4 12.0 100,172 41,530

Management of companies and enterprises 126 20.7 7.0 9.4 164,476 56,042

Top 25 Shawno Cnty Industries by Location Quotient

LQ EmploymentIndustry

RevenuesLabor

IncomeTotal Income

Revenue per Workers

Labor Income per

WorkerPhotographic film and chemical manufacturing 43.25 32 17.5 1.4 2.7 539,809 43,711

Curtain and linen mills 28.87 37 6.0 2.0 2.2 162,342 54,378

Support activities for agriculture and forestry 18.86 1,079 40.3 27.9 29.4 37,344 25,818

Sawmills 16.38 186 42.8 6.9 7.3 229,710 36,847

Showcase, partition, shelving, and locker manufacturing 14.81 162 27.1 5.9 6.4 167,166 36,497

Veneer and plywood manufacturing 14.39 126 28.6 5.3 6.3 227,103 42,280

Plastics packaging materials and unlaminated film and sheet manufacturing 10.31 346 141.3 17.7 37.4 407,961 51,005

Ferrous metal foundries 9.37 545 129.5 30.1 34.1 237,904 55,295

Electric power generation - Hydroelectric 8.13 5 2.8 0.5 1.6 524,472 89,703

Other local government enterprises 7.60 708 172.2 33.4 48.4 243,204 47,182

Local government electric utilities 7.45 22 12.0 1.6 4.2 552,934 72,879

Dairy cattle and milk production 5.00 1,058 169.4 35.3 76.5 160,074 33,320

Business and professional associations 4.90 230 8.5 7.8 3.8 37,010 33,907

Creamery butter manufacturing 4.89 27 42.9 1.3 5.4 1,574,333 48,733

Wood windows and door manufacturing 4.62 141 23.5 5.7 6.1 166,514 40,721

Sign manufacturing 4.52 70 8.6 3.8 3.3 123,454 54,707

Pharmaceutical preparation manufacturing 4.35 42 47.9 4.7 14.0 1,138,876 111,695

Concrete block and brick manufacturing 4.35 3 0.9 0.2 0.5 304,458 49,128

All other crop farming 4.30 470 46.9 16.5 28.1 99,702 35,157

All other miscellaneous wood product manufacturing 3.74 33 5.3 1.4 1.5 162,167 43,129

Cut stone and stone product manufacturing 3.69 12 1.7 0.5 0.7 137,606 37,863

Beef cattle ranching and farming, including feedlots and dual-purpose ranching and farming3.36 114 34.5 5.4 13.9 303,938 47,116

Meat processed from carcasses 3.03 179 83.9 8.5 12.5 468,546 47,335

Truck trailer manufacturing 2.94 18 5.1 0.6 0.9 279,084 33,149

Stationery product manufacturing 2.93 21 7.4 1.6 1.7 345,628 76,083

19481950

19521954

19561958

19601962

19641966

19681970

19721974

19761978

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

World Trade (Trillions of US Dollars)

12% energy

1992-01-01

1992-10-01

1993-07-01

1994-04-01

1995-01-01

1995-10-01

1996-07-01

1997-04-01

1998-01-01

1998-10-01

1999-07-01

2000-04-01

2001-01-01

2001-10-01

2002-07-01

2003-04-01

2004-01-01

2004-10-01

2005-07-01

2006-04-01

2007-01-01

2007-10-01

2008-07-01

2009-04-01

2010-01-01

2010-10-01

2011-07-01

2012-04-01

2013-01-01

2013-10-01

2014-07-01-90,000

-80,000

-70,000

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

Trade Balance: Goods, Balance of Payments Basis (MM$)

1995-01-01

1995-09-01

1996-05-01

1997-01-01

1997-09-01

1998-05-01

1999-01-01

1999-09-01

2000-05-01

2001-01-01

2001-09-01

2002-05-01

2003-01-01

2003-09-01

2004-05-01

2005-01-01

2005-09-01

2006-05-01

2007-01-01

2007-09-01

2008-05-01

2009-01-01

2009-09-01

2010-05-01

2011-01-01

2011-09-01

2012-05-01

2013-01-01

2013-09-01

2014-05-01

2015-01-0180

90

100

110

120

130

140

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad

Top U.S. Exports (Origin of Movement) from Wisconsin2011 2012 2013 2014

World 22068.9 23119.2 23109.3 23432.6Top 25 19273.3 20376.3 20384.2 20654.6

1 Canada 7145.6 7642.6 7527.4 7941.6 33.9%2 Mexico 1988.4 2166.7 2515.8 2836.5 12.1%3 China 1383.4 1547.3 1658.2 1564.2 6.7%4 Japan 738.3 858.2 933.8 901.9 3.8%5 United Kingdom 625.9 615.3 679.3 848.3 3.6%6 Germany 887.4 715.1 701.3 731.4 3.1%7 Australia 763.7 866.0 676.0 605.2 2.6%8 Brazil 574.9 497.9 477.5 517.3 2.2%9 France 534.7 508.4 459.8 489.5 2.1%

10 Korea, South 421.6 403.4 431.1 472.6 2.0%11 Netherlands 367.2 394.9 378.8 429.9 1.8%12 Saudi Arabia 283.3 312.1 396.2 368.5 1.6%13 Belgium 368.0 411.6 384.5 332.1 1.4%14 Italy 317.5 270.8 279.2 310.6 1.3%15 Chile 614.7 555.2 474.0 289.6 1.2%16 Peru 180.7 229.5 256.6 263.3 1.1%17 Hong Kong 304.4 289.7 249.7 251.5 1.1%18 Singapore 236.1 329.9 259.2 244.9 1.0%19 India 329.9 456.9 289.5 229.7 1.0%20 Thailand 231.3 184.0 203.6 210.8 0.9%21 Taiwan 222.4 192.4 174.1 182.0 0.8%22 South Africa 227.4 228.4 261.1 177.2 0.8%23 United Arab Emirates 167.7 305.2 393.7 170.2 0.7%24 Colombia 151.1 174.0 166.7 151.1 0.6%25 Russia 207.8 221.0 157.5 134.7 0.6%

Top 25 6-digit HS Commodities Based on 2014 Dollar Value2011 2012 2013 2014

World 22068.9 23119.2 23109.3 23432.6Top 25 5343.0 5703.4 5507.2 5827.7

1 TRACTORS, NESOI 399.4 381.1 304.4 378.2 1.6%2 CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND PARTS 270.1 274.1 261.5 368.2 1.6%3 PARTS AND ACCESSORIES OF MOTOR VEHICLES, NESO 132.8 119.8 221.1 365.3 1.6%4 ELECTRO-DIAGNOSTIC APPARATUS NESOI, AND PARTS 371.3 369.1 379.4 336.5 1.4%5 MECH SHOVELS EXCAVATORS ETC W 360 DEGREE SPRS 453.8 462.3 418.9 308.0 1.3%6 ADRENAL CORTICAL HORMONES AND DERIV NESOI 28.5 45.0 38.3 300.6 1.3%7 COMPUTED TOMOGRAPHY APPARATUS 256.0 239.8 195.1 240.6 1.0%8 X-RAY/HI TNSN GENR CNTR PNL & DSK EXM/TRTMNT 201.4 218.9 183.0 231.6 1.0%9 PARTS AND ATTACHMENTS NESOI FOR DERRICKS ETC. 840.1 1009.3 687.1 221.7 0.9%

10 OUTBOARD ENGINES FOR MARINE PROPULSION 174.6 202.3 233.6 215.7 0.9%11 COMPOSITE DIAGNOSTIC/LAB REAGENTS, EXC PHARMA 119.7 121.8 189.9 214.3 0.9%12 ETHYL ALCOHOL & OTH SPIRITS DENATURED ANY STR 241.7 282.1 176.1 205.9 0.9%13 NEWSPAPERS, ETC APPEARING LESS THAN 4 TIMES P 287.7 259.2 226.9 205.6 0.9%14 FOOD PREPARATIONS NESOI 148.5 180.6 174.2 202.9 0.9%15 MINK FURSKINS, RAW, WHOLE 76.1 99.1 147.3 202.5 0.9%16 ARTICLES OF PLASTICS, NESOI 112.8 144.0 160.6 200.0 0.9%17 INSTR & APPL F MEDICAL SURGICAL DENTAL VET, N 167.1 195.5 205.6 196.6 0.8%18 DIGITAL ADP MAC & UNITS,ENTERED AS SYSTEMS, N 67.7 70.0 154.2 192.7 0.8%19 REFRIGERATING/FREEZING EQUIPMENT, NESOI 219.6 188.2 190.9 188.3 0.8%20 SPARK-IGNITION INT COMBUSTION PISTON ENG PTS 161.7 157.2 160.4 182.3 0.8%21 STATIC CONVERTERS; ADP POWER SUPPLIES 165.6 166.9 214.1 180.9 0.8%22 MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING APPARATUS 161.3 181.5 201.8 179.3 0.8%23 CONTROLS ETC W ELECT APPR F ELECT CONT NOV 10 112.4 146.9 171.5 171.2 0.7%24 SILICA SANDS AND QUARTZ SANDS, NATURAL 66.2 59.6 101.9 170.0 0.7%25 DIGITAL PROCESSING UNITS, N.E.S.O.I. 107.0 129.0 109.3 169.1 0.7%

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