what’s happening up north the northwest economies steve scranton, cfa chief investment officer...

What’s Happening Up North

The Northwest Economies

Steve Scranton, CFAChief Investment Officer & Economist

Washington Trust Bank

Wage Growth

Understanding Slow Wage Growth

Dec-07

Mar-08

Jun-08

Sep-0

8

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jun-09

Sep-0

9

Dec-09

Mar-10

Jun-10

Sep-1

0

Dec-10

Mar-11

Jun-11

Sep-1

1

Dec-11

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-1

2

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-1

3

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-1

4

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-1

51.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.8

Average Hourly Earnings for All Private Payroll Employees as of 9/30/15

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

A Perspective on Part-Time Jobs Versus Full Time Jobs as of 9/30/15

• Since the recession began (December 2007)

o 1,418,000 part-time jobs (for economic reasons) have been added.

o 230,000 full-time jobs have been added


How Have the Northwest

Economies Fared?

It All Starts With Jobs

Idaho Has The Lowest Unemployment Rate

U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

5.10% 5.20%

6.20%

4.20%

Unemployment Rate as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics-Not Seasonally

Adjusted

Year-Over-Year Jobs Growth Has Been Better

With Washington and Idaho Leading the Way


0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2.10%

3.10%

2.80%

3.10%

Year-Over-Year Jobs Growth as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jobs Create Income

Wage Growth Has Been Better With

Oregon Leading the Way


0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

2.20%2.50%

3.80%

2.60%

Year-Over-Year Change in Average Hourly Earn-ings as of 9/30/15


Only Washington Has Higher Wages

Than the National Average

U.S. Washington Oregon Idaho $-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$25.09

$29.42

$23.74$22.07

Average Hourly Earnings as of 9/30/15Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Income Creates Growth

Oregon Has Been the Erratic Growth

Economy of the Northwest

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Annual Real GDP GrowthSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

United States Washington Oregon Idaho

NW Construction

WashingtonTotal Permits

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

Value of Building Permits (000's) Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau

WashingtonSingle Family

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15

Washington5 Units or More

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Value of Permits (000’s)Data Through 9/30/15

Source: Census Bureau

OregonTotal Permits

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

Value of Permits (000's)Data Through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau

OregonSingle Family

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Value of Permits (000's)Data as of 9/30/15

Source: Census Bureau

Oregon5 Units of More

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000


IdahoTotal Permits

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

Value of Building Permits (000's)

Data through 9/30/15Source: Census Bureau

IdahoSingle Family

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000


Idaho5 Units or More

Jan-09

Apr-0

9Jul

-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0Jul

-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-1

1Jul

-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-1

2Jul

-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-1

3Jul

-13

Oct-13

Jan-14

Apr-1

4Jul

-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-1

5Jul

-15 $-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000


Themes for the Next Twelve Months

• Interest Rates

• Oil

• Dollar

Geopolitical Risks• Europe

• Asia

• Middle East

what’s happening up north the northwest economies steve scranton, cfa chief investment officer...

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