Sandra BrownIPv4 Market GroupMarch 15, 2016

IPv4 Pricing and Transfer Update

Table of Contents

• Factors Affecting IPv4 Pricing• Reduced Supply• Long Term IPv4 Price View• IPv4 Price Trends to Date• RIPE Transfer Activity• Predictions for the Future

2

Factors Affecting Pricing

• RIPE Inter-RIR Transfers: Possible since September 2015;Prices have equalized across regions

• IPv6 Deployment: Will reduce demand for IPv4 in the longterm; Applications still need to support IPv6

• Use of CGN: Stretches use of IPv4 and reduces price pressure• Supply of IPv4: As more IPv4 comes to market, such as /8s,

prices are pushed down• Demand for IPv4: Increased demand for cloud applications;

population growth

3

Factors Affecting Pricing

• Supplies are being bought up in ARIN region, following run out in July 2015

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

IP T

RA

NSF

ERS

# OF IP TRANSFERS PER YEAR IN ARIN REGION

4

IPv4 Life Cycle

• Events– ARIN Runout– RIPE Inter-RIR Transfers– /8s come to market– IPv6 Adoption 5

Price Trends over Time

Inflection point in Sept 2015 – prices increased for /16 and larger blocks

6

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

Pri

ce P

er IP

IPv4 Transactions Over Time - /16 Blocks

2011 Sept 2015

RIPE Transfer Activity

7

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14

# O

F IP

S TR

AN

SFER

RED

BLOCK SIZE

# OF IPS TRANSFERRED PER BLOCK SIZE

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100

/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14

# O

F TR

AN

SFER

S

BLOCK SIZE

# OF TRANSFERS PER BLOCK SIZE

RIPE Transfer Activity

8

-

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

2,000,000

# O

F IP

S TR

AN

SFER

RED

MONTH-YEAR

# OF IP TRANSFERS PER MONTH-YEARTO COUNTRY # IPS TRANSFERRED %

Iran 3,115,520 17.56%

Saudi Arabia 2,708,480 15.27%

Russia 2,176,000 12.26%

UK 1,554,944 8.76%

Spain 1,024,768 5.78%

Romania 908,544 5.12%

Netherlands 843,776 4.76%

Germany 797,440 4.49%

Italy 530,688 2.99%

Portugal 409,088 2.31%

Bulgaria 402,944 2.27%

Turkey 342,528 1.93%

France 290,816 1.64%

Denmark 272,384 1.54%

Ukraine 239,616 1.35%

Czech Republic 195,840 1.10%

Switzerland 180,736 1.02%

Predictions for the Future• We are not at the top of the IPv4 Price Curve: Prices

will continue to rise somewhat• /8s will continue to come to market, keeping prices

reasonable• There is a shortage of IPv4 addresses in RIPE region

that is starting to be filled from ARIN region

9