when citation analysis strikes ball lightning.blair of germany used a novel method to calculate the...

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May 17, 1976 Number 20 Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does the work. --Mark Twainl Lightning has always terrified and fascinated people. It has also in- spired many myths and much superstition. For example, some misin- formed people righteously assert that lightning never strikes twice in the same place. Actually, the odds for lightning hitting twice in the same spot are excellent. The conditions that attracted it in the first place--a protni- nence in a flat area, for example--are likely to attract it again. The Greeks and Remans thought thunderbolts were weapons of the gods. Since scientists have now explained ordinary streak lightning as a high-voltage electrical discharge, people’s fascination has been trans- ferred to the other forms of lightning: sheet lightning, in which no single bolt is visible; St. Elmo’s fire, a glow emitted by charged objects such as airplane wings; and ball lightning (also called ‘‘Kugelblitz’ ‘). Ball lightn- ing is usually described as a moving, luminous sphere which lasts a few seconds and then dies out, either silently or explosively. Ball lightning is probably the most mysterious lightning phenomenon because scientists have utterly failed to explain it. Many researchers have viewed reports of ball lightning with the kind of skepticism and distaste usually reserved for reports of psi phenomena and UFOS. Until recently, scientists even debated the existence of ball lightning--explaining it as hallucination, optical illusion, or observer hysteria. The only evidence for it was anec- dotal, mainly from amateur sightings. But reports of ball lightning have appeared in the scientific press for over a century. In 188S, science published this account by a ship’s captain named Waters: “All at once a large mass of fire appeared over the vessel, completely blindlng the spectators; and, as it fell into the sea some fifty yards to leeward, it caused a hissing sound, which was heard above the blast, and made the vessel quiver from stem to stem.”2 In 1930, an anonymous account in Nature reported that “a number of globes of light were seen of the size of billiard balls, extending from a few inches above the surface to a height of 7-8 feet. They slowly rose and fell 479

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Page 1: When Citation Analysis Strikes Ball Lightning.Blair of Germany used a novel method to calculate the magnetic energy in a lightning ball as 1S0 gauss. Nature carried the report, which

May 17, 1976 Number 20

Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is

lightning that does the work. --Mark Twainl

Lightning has always terrified and fascinated people. It has also in-

spired many myths and much superstition. For example, some misin-formed people righteously assert that lightning never strikes twice in thesame place. Actually, the odds for lightning hitting twice in the same spotare excellent. The conditions that attracted it in the first place--a protni-nence in a flat area, for example--are likely to attract it again.

The Greeks and Remans thought thunderbolts were weapons of thegods. Since scientists have now explained ordinary streak lightning as ahigh-voltage electrical discharge, people’s fascination has been trans-ferred to the other forms of lightning: sheet lightning, in which no singlebolt is visible; St. Elmo’s fire, a glow emitted by charged objects such asairplane wings; and ball lightning (also called ‘‘Kugelblitz’ ‘). Ball lightn-ing is usually described as a moving, luminous sphere which lasts a fewseconds and then dies out, either silently or explosively. Ball lightning isprobably the most mysterious lightning phenomenon because scientistshave utterly failed to explain it. Many researchers have viewed reports ofball lightning with the kind of skepticism and distaste usually reserved forreports of psi phenomena and UFOS. Until recently, scientists even

debated the existence of ball lightning--explaining it as hallucination,optical illusion, or observer hysteria. The only evidence for it was anec-dotal, mainly from amateur sightings.

But reports of ball lightning have appeared in the scientific press for

over a century. In 188S, science published this account by a ship’s captainnamed Waters: “All at once a large mass of fire appeared over the

vessel, completely blindlng the spectators; and, as it fell into the sea

some fifty yards to leeward, it caused a hissing sound, which was heardabove the blast, and made the vessel quiver from stem to stem.”2 In1930, an anonymous account in Nature reported that “a number of globes

of light were seen of the size of billiard balls, extending from a few inchesabove the surface to a height of 7-8 feet. They slowly rose and fell

479

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(..J71

N- ENERGY

CAMPANOLOGY

-REBUTTAL

“BALL-LIGHTNING” CITATION MAP

Articles are shown as circles containing author and year.Adjacent words describe main theme of articles.

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vertically, sometimes within a few in-ches of the observers but always elud-ing the grasp.”3

It is always pleasant for me to de-monstrate the creative use of informa-tion retrieval. The ball lightning phe-nomenon, with its combination ofmystery and possible utility, is justsuch an opportunity. I hope that thenew generation of science teacherswill use the information retrieval tech-niques described here to get studentsinterested in tracing the history ofother scientific discoveries. By usingthe Science Citation tndefl in thisway, students can feel the excitementof discovery as the threads of scien-tific cloth are unraveled.

According to the results of a searchby my versatile colleague, A.E.Cawkell,4 an article with the incredLble title “Thunderbolts as theX-Weapon” appeared in November1%2 in the now defunct journal Dis-eavery. The paper, by C. M. Cade,contained this account of an attemptto calculate the energy of ball lightn-ing: “A fireball ‘the size of a largeorange’ which was observed in Dor-stone, Hereford, on October 3rd,1936, fell into a water butt containingabout four gallons of water, whichtilled for some minutes, and 20minutes later was still too hot for thehuman hand. From this data, Profes-sor B.L. Goodlet has calculated thatthe minimum energy of this fireballwas 3,800 kilowatt-seconds....”5 Un-fortunately, the author supplies nofurther reference for the mysteriousProfessor Goodlet. So the detectivework begins.

As it turns out, we were unable tofind anyone who had ever citedCade’s paper, at least within the 15years we’ve compiled the SCF’ . Butas I’ve often repeated, a name ms,y beall one needs to begin an SCI search.

Goodlet’s papers in the J LEE werecited in 1970 by M.D. Altschuler ofthe National Center for AtmosphericResearch, Boulder, Colors@ in 1971by E. Argyle of the Dominion RadioAstrophysical Observatory, BritishColumbia; and again in 1971 byP.C. W. Davies of the Institute ofTheoretical Astronomy, Cambridge,England. This is shown in the figureopposite, in which we have provided aselected portion of the now extensiveball lightning literature.

In 1971, Argyle drew parallels be-tween ball lightning and visual after-images: “The behavior and apparentproperties of the positive afterimageare strikkgly similar to those of balllightning. Its shape wiU be the sameas that of the exciting source, and itwill commonly be described as aball . . . . Positive afterimages last 2-10seconds, depending on circumstances,and most lightning balls are reportedto have a duration in the same range.Positive afterimages dkappear rathersuddenly, as do lightning balls.”6Argyle dismissed Goodlet’s reportthat water in a rain barrel had beenheated by ball lightning as ‘‘unreli-able. ”

Each explanation advanced for theball lightning phenomenon is unsatis-factory in some respect. Early expla-nations held that ball lightning isformed by the combustion of materialreleased by a lightning stroke on itsimpact with the ground. This materi-al, either particles or gases, might beconfined by a vortex, in the samemanner as a smoke ring. Edward Hillof the University of Minnesota modi-fied this theory to suggest that when alightning stroke produces a separationof charges in such a ball of material,miniature lightning strokes occurwithin the ball.7 T. Neugebauerpostulated that ball lightning consists

4a I

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of dense plasma containing largenumbers of free electrons and positive

ions.8 Altschuler and his colleaguessuggested that ball lightning may be anuclear phenomenon involving theproduction of radioactive products,whose beta-decay would cause a glowin surrounding air molecules.9

A bizarre but not implausible the-

ory was discussed in the same 19

March 1971 issue of Nature in whichArgyle’s “optical illusion” article waspublished. An article by D. E.T.F.Ashby and C. Whitehead of theUnited Kingdom Atomic Energy Au-thority suggested that ball lightning iscaused by antimatter meteorites

which annhilate normal matter, creat-ing a luminous ball.lo Actually, thisidea was first proposed by Ahschuler,

who wrote in 1969 that “the hypothe-sis of antimatter meteorites is intrigu-

ing. lf a significant amount of anti-matter does exist in the universe, it ispossible that tiny grains of antimattermight penetrate our galaxy and col-lide with the earth’s atmosphere. En-tering at high speeds, the grain mightsurvive until it reached the tropo-sphere. A fraction of a microgram ofantimatter would destroy an equalmass of matter and release manymegajoules of energy, perhaps creat-ing luminous spheres.”11 The anti-matter theory was supported whenAshby and Whitehead, using radia-tion detectors, observed four ‘‘unusu-al” radiation events. They concluded

that, “The radiation events are con-

sistent with the proposed existence ofmicron-sized particles of antimatterand their duration is similar to that ofball lightning; however, the correla-tion with thunderstorms is uncer-tain.”lo

As the ball lightning phenomenon

became more scientifically respect-able, two particular “events” began

to be discussed by many authors. Thefirst was Jennison’s (University ofKent) 1969 report of a lightning ballpassing down the central aisle of anaircraft. Since the plane was a tankerwith a full load of aviation fuel, onecan imagine the observer’s reliefwhen the yellow-white lightning ball““danced out over the right wing” anddisappeared into the night. 12 The se-cond event was Covington’s (NationalResearch Council of Canada) 1970 ob-servations of a drifting lightning ballwhich demolished the pile of a wharf,and of another lightning ball whichemerged from the fireplace in a lake-side house, traveled across the room,and passed through a closed doorwithout causing any damage. Is

The two articles by Argyle and Ash-by were cited in several letters tojournals in 1971. Argyle’s idea thatball lightning is an optical illusion wasrebutted by authors who cited theirown and other observers’ well-documented sightings. Ashby’s anti-matter notion had a mixed reception.

The UFO phenomenon entered theball lightning story via AkschuIer’s1969 article in the Condon UFO re-port, which explained some UFOsightings as ball lightning. 11 Thechapter was cited by several authors.

As an exercise in demonstratingthat all phenomena and disciplinesare somehow connected to one an-other, the ball lightning story has fewequals. In 1973, for example, A.J. P.Blair of Germany used a novel methodto calculate the magnetic energy in alightning ball as 1S0 gauss. Naturecarried the report, which stated, “Inthe parish of Samford-Courtney inDevon on October 7, 1811, a suddendarkness came on, and a tire ball fellin the vicinity of the church. The ring-ers in the belfry, ringing at the time,declared that they never knew the

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bells go so heavy, and were obliged todesist ringing. Looking down from thebelfry into the church, they perceivedfour fire balls, which suddenly burst,and the church was fdled with fire andsmoke, some of which ascended to thetower, where a large beam, on whichone of the bells was hung, wasbroken, and the gudgeon breaking,the bell fell to the floor. ” 14

There is also a connection to nu-clear fusion in the ball lightning story.In a well-cited 1955 article, 15 the Rus-sian physicist Peter Kapitsa proposedthat ball lightning results from astanding wave system in the electro-magnetic field which accompaniesthunderstorms. Windows and chim-neys, through which ball lightning isoften reported to have travelled,would act as waveguides for thesestanding waves. Elements of this ideawere later used in a Soviet experi-mental fusion reactor, and stable ballsof plasma were produced. 16

Another theory involves focusedcosmic-ray particles, and still anotherpostulates that ball lightning is pro-duced by the decay of ordhary light-ning in the presence of large amountsof water.

The theoretical situation regarding

ball lightning still is rather confused.It has not vet been determined whe-ther ball lightning is a single phe-nomenon or a series of phenomenawith diverse origins. No one has suc-ceeded in producing ball lightning inthe laboratory, although a few photo-graphs have been reported.

Just a year ago, in a search for pho-tographic evidence of ball lightning,two researchers at the University ofWyoming examined over 10,000Prarie Meteorite Network photo-graphs which contained images ofover 100,000 lightning strokes. Theyreported tindlng six ball lightning

‘‘caddate” events. “In all of theball candidate events the scenario isthe same: an ordinary appearinglightning stroke ends above groundand what appears to be a ball (pro-ducing a sequence of images) falls outof it and goes to earth. ” 17

More recently, photographic evi-dence of an object “which may besimilar to some varieties of balllightning” was reported in September1975 by three French authors,R. F;eux and C. Gary of Electricity deFrance, Direction des Etudes et Re-cherches, and P. Hubert of Commis-sariats 2 l’Energie Atomique, Serviced’Electronique Physique, Centred’Etudes Nuc16aires de Saclay. 18 In akind of reenactment of BenjaminFranklin’s kke-and-key lightning ex-periment, they launched rockets withwires attached into the atmosphere.This technique was developed, theysaid, “in the hope of perhaps shed-ding new light on the controversialsubject of ball lightning, since accord-ing to published statistics ball lightn-ing is mentioned in more than 40% ofthe cases in which an observer de-scribes a nearby lightning stroke. ”Although these researchers did notobserve anything “comparable withthe more remarkable tales of balllightning folklore,” they did observeand photograph the appearance ofluminous “beads” during the decayof triggered lightning. “The beadsgenerally have an initial diameter ofthe order of 40 cm which decreasesgradually with a total lifetime of 0.3sat most. During long-lasting strokes,the initially straight channel adopts ona progressively more tortuous shapeand the biggest beads occur wheretortuousness is a maximum. Sincethere is a positive correlation betweendiameter and lifetime, it follows thatat the end of the decay there are one

483

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The death of professor G. W, Richmunn of St, Petersburg m 1753 ha been asm”bed to the firstexperiment which succeeded- -accidentally- -in producing artajictil ball lightnrng. According toStanlej Singer,23 as Richmann observed the effect of a thunderstorm on a devi?e for measun”ngatmospheric electricity, lsghtning struck a rod connected to his apparatus, causing a l&htningball to traveljrom the device to Richmann >forehead. The fatal experiment was m“tnessed bya fn’end of Richmunn, an engraver of the Royal Academy of St. Petersburg.

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or two luminous balls only. In generalthese objects have an upward motionof 1 or 2 m s -1, which gives an overallpicture consistent with the hypothesisof a gradually cooling spheroid of hotgas. ”

In the same paper, the authors lendsupport to the early theory involvingcombustion of material released fromthe ground. They note that “lightemission occurred at the foot ofwooden posts” in the test area. “Thelight-emitting region was stationary,in contact with the ground at the placewhere the post enters the earth. Itsshape seems roughly spherical with adiameter of about 25 cm . ...” Theycomment, “It is not surprising thatsome underground outgassing occursand that the gasses escape at thepoint where the posts puncture the

uPPer layer. It remains to be decidedwhether the light comes from hotgases only or from a combustion in-volving hydrogen or methane, for in-stance, or from a localized electricdischarge mechanism. ”

Just a few weeks ago, MarkStenhoff of the Physics Department ofRoyal Holloway College reported acase in which a woman touched andwas injured by ball lightning. Stenhoffreported in Nature that on 8 August1975, the woman, who lives in theMidlands area of England, was in herkitchen during a thunderstorm “whena sphere of light appeared over thecooker. The ball twas z 10 cm acrossand surrounded by a flame-coloredhalo; its color was bright blue to pur-ple. The ball moved straight towardsthe witness at an estimated height of95 cm from the ground. Burning heatwas felt, and there was a singeingsmell. A sound something like a“rattlewas heard.”19

The woman herself reported that,“The ball seemed to hit me below the

belt, as it were, and I automaticallybrushed it from me and it just dis-appeared. Where 1 brushed it away

there appeared a redness and swell-

ing on my left hand. It seemed as ifmy gold wedding ring was burninginto my finger. ” The lightning ballproduced a hole in the woman’s dressand underwear at the point where itstruck her. Her legs became red andnumb. The woman, who had neverbefore heard of ball lightning, feltthat the ball exploded just as shetouched it.

Commenting on this report in a Na-ture editorial, P.C. W. Davies notesthat progress in ball lightning re-search is hampered by the lack of pre-cise, reliable observational data. Hesuggests that, “The present unsatis-factory situation would be greatly im-proved if the aura of mystery and su-perstition surrounding unusual aerialevents were dispelled. Good, detailedeye-witness reports of luminous ballsare frequently made by competent ob-,servers such as airline pilots, but arerarely passed on to scientists. Instead,many of them find their way into miii-tary tiles, where they are shrouded ina ridiculous secrecy. (Incredibly, theBritish Ministry of Defence continuesto deny scientists access to their ac-counts of these events. ) With propercooperation between scientists andthe public, particularly the localpress, and the civil aircraft authori-ties, it would be possible to follow upball lightning reports rapidly, enabl-ing tests for radioactivity and so forthto be carried out. “20

To help clarify the situation, a fewindividuals have turned their energiesto collecting ball lightning rep&-ts.One of these is William Corliss ofGlen Arm, Maryland, a consultant toNASA who has compiled Strange Phe-nomena, Zf a ‘‘sourcebook” which

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contains abstracts of 75 ball lightningreports. Also notable is the balllightning bibliography compiled byJ.D. Barry of the US Air Force’sSpace and Missile Systems Organiza-tion, Los Angeles. This bibliography,copies of which are available from theauthor, cites over 1,100 ball lightningreports and references spanning 3S0years.22 Another excellent source ofinformation on the scientific history ofball lightning is a book published in1971, The Nature of Ball Lightning byStanley Singer, director of AthenexResearch Associates, Pasadena, Cali-fomia.23 According to Singer,Faraday felt that any relation betweenball lightning and streak lightning was“more than doubtful, ” and Lord Kel-vin held that ball lightning was noth-ing more than an optical illusion. Theselected ball lightning bibliographywhich follows is intended to stimulate

12

3.4.

5.

6.

7.8.

9.10,

11.

12.

19.

14.

15

16

17

18,

mscusslon, ana possIfJly research, orthis centuries-old but still fascinating

subject.Returning to the 1962 article by

Cade, we’ve been unable to find anyother articles about “X-Weapons.”Maybe the idea was impractical--ormaybe the work was so successfulthat it was classified. What surprisesme most about the ball lightning storyis the failure of any leading Americanor Soviet journal to present a compre-hensive discussion of this area of re-search. The state of the literature onball lightning is similar to Shakes-peare’s description of Romeo andJuliet’s love:

It is too rash, too unadvis ‘d,too sudden:

Too like the lightning; which clothcease to be

Ere one can say it lightens. 24.-

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Nature 230:180.82, 1971.

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