PREDICTING

Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture?

Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date

Summary StatisticsWinning Nominees

Mean Minimum Maximum

Median Standard Deviation

Revenue242438461 16894615 805056171 185472335 188485606

Budget 47569153 4158000 268000000

36300000 46985166

Running Time

144.59 93 219 133 33.34

Days released before ceremony

170.46 68 409 129 95.65

Mean Minimum Maximum Median Standard Deviation

Revenue 181671197

14719007 2138850000

92361268 274189636

Budget 39212831 2440000 175500000

28893000 34417879

Running Time

131.98 84 194 128 23.88

Days released before ceremony

187.34 57 444 135.5 113.86

Losing NomineesSummary Statistics

95% Confidence.

H0 H1 P Value

Days from Ceremony

μw-μL=0 μ w-μL<0 .1880

Does a closer release date indicate a higher chance of winning?

T-Test

Variable Coefficients P-value

Intercept -0.054078819 0.84446358

Adjusted Revenue 1.35159E-10 0.393175424

Adjusted Budget -8.61494E-10 0.476716168

Days from release to award -0.000111417 0.753687073

Running Time 0.004166588 0.023103215

Experienced Director -0.203595373 0.00943012

Comedy -0.116411456 0.390173456

Drama -0.113457394 0.251954524

Thriller -0.247609864 0.048548348

True Story -0.12130757 0.184288749

Original -0.050586749 0.541565801

Major Studio 0.066714224 0.401458856

MODEL

R-Squared .143

Significance F 0.034

n 143

Ŷ=1.35E-10x1-8.62E-10x2-1.1E-

4x3+0.0042x4-0.20x5-0.12x6-0.114x7-0.25x8-0.12x9-0.05x10+.067x11

Our Equation

X1=Adjusted Revenue

x2=Adjusted Budget

X3= Release Date

X4= Running Time

X5= Director Experience

X6=Comedy

X7= Drama

X8= Thriller

X9= True Story X10= Original

X11= Major Studio

FilmLost in Translation

Master and Commander

Mystic River

Seabiscuit

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2003ŷ

.312678

0.299045

0.167013

0.447025

0.664269

And the Winner is…

FilmSlumdog Millionaire

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

MilkThe Reader

2008ŷ

0.448771

0.5274240.117674

0.116869

0.242687

And the Winner is…

Slumdog Millionaire

ConclusionsThe strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar WinningsWe showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a mythInterestingly, we found a Negative correlation between experience of director and winning. Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.

Credits

Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-PoundsAssistant Excel Technician Bryce Gerard

Data Collection Grisel ZunigaWarren Brown-PoundsBryce Gerard

Regression Analysts Warren Brown-PoundsBryce Gerard

Data Provided By imdb.comboxofficemojo.com

PowerPoint Design Bryce GerardBased on an Idea by Bryce GerardSpecial Thanks to: Rajat Gupta