white paper - workforce planning v024

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July 2015 Strategic Workforce Planning in Health and Social Care: Making The Case For Change page 1 of 15 A Whole Systems Approach to the Health and Social Care Workforce Our Proposition in Brief We exist to enable organisations to be whole and healthy. We help our clients to become whole and healthy workplaces by using the Tricord TM to establish core “Identity” by creating the right balance between Strategy, Systems and Culture. This whole systems approach includes our approach to workforce services, including strategic workforce planning, through which we help organisations make more timely and betterinformed decisions about the size, make up and structures of their workforce and in doing so, deliver much better outcomes at lower cost. There is a great deal of emphasis on workforce planning within the Health and Social Care sector, though evidence of its successful deployment is patchy. We argue workforce planning, as practiced in the Health and Social Care sectors, places too much emphasis on technical aspects and not enough emphasis is placed on governance, decision making, or on the actual delivery of workforce capability; it is not strategic. In our approach, in addition to complex analysis and modelling, we take into account the wider governance issues around delivering planned benefits, the management of risks and on mitigation and contingency planning. We adopt a cyclical approach to strategic workforce planning where the emphasis is just as much on outcome as it is on analysis and planning. In our exploration of the practice of strategic workforce planning, we advocate a “whole systems” approach that addresses a much wider view of the organisation than is typically the case. Our view is that the successful outcome of strategic workforce planning is the delivery of outcomes: matching the workforce (capability, size and structure) to the needs of the organisation and its service users. We conclude that strategic workforce planning is really about the delivery of transformational change, a precondition of which is addressing the organisation as a whole system. We work collaboratively with our clients in the belief that by developing their own capabilities, we are equipping them for the longterm future, rather than creating an unhealthy dependency on our support.

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July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  1  of  15  

A  Whole  Systems  Approach  to  the  Health  and  Social  Care  Workforce  

Our  Proposition  in  Brief  We  exist  to  enable  organisations  to  be  whole  and  healthy.  We  help  our  clients  to  become  whole  and  healthy  workplaces  by  using  the  Tricord  TM  to  establish  core  “Identity”  by  creating  the  right  balance  between  Strategy,  Systems  and  Culture.  This  whole  systems  approach  includes  our  approach  to  workforce  services,  including  strategic  workforce    planning,  through  which  we  help  organisations  make  more  timely  and  better-­‐informed  decisions  about  the  size,  make  up  and  structures  of  their  workforce  and  in  doing  so,  deliver  much  better  outcomes  at  lower  cost.    There  is  a  great  deal  of  emphasis  on  workforce  planning  within  the  Health  and  Social  Care  sector,  though  evidence  of  its  successful  deployment  is  patchy.  We  argue  workforce  planning,  as  practiced  in  the  Health  and  Social  Care  sectors,  places  too  much  emphasis  on  technical  aspects  and  not  enough  emphasis  is  placed  on  governance,  decision  making,  or  on  the  actual  delivery  of  workforce  capability;  it  is  not  strategic.      In  our  approach,  in  addition  to  complex  analysis  and  modelling,  we  take  into  account  the  wider  governance  issues  around  delivering  planned  benefits,  the  management  of  risks  and  on  mitigation  and  contingency  planning.  We  adopt  a  cyclical  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning  where  the  emphasis  is  just  as  much  on  outcome  as  it  is  on  analysis  and  planning.      In  our  exploration  of  the  practice  of  strategic  workforce  planning,  we  advocate  a    “whole  systems”  approach  that  addresses  a  much  wider  view  of  the  organisation  than  is  typically  the  case.  Our  view  is  that  the  successful  outcome  of  strategic  workforce  planning  is  the  delivery  of  outcomes:  matching  the  workforce  (capability,  size  and  structure)  to  the  needs  of  the  organisation  and  its  service  users.  We  conclude  that  strategic  workforce  planning  is  really  about  the  delivery  of  transformational  change,  a  pre-­‐condition  of  which  is  addressing  the  organisation  as  a  whole  system.      We  work  collaboratively  with  our  clients  in  the  belief  that  by  developing  their  own  capabilities,  we  are  equipping  them  for  the  long-­‐term  future,  rather  than  creating  an  unhealthy  dependency  on  our  support.            

July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  2  of  15  

 

Introduction  We  use  the  Tricord  as  our  framework  for  thinking  about  healthy  organisational  design.  This  emphasises  the  need  to  consider  both  ‘hard’  aspects  e.g.  structures,  processes  and  systems  as  well  as  ‘soft’  aspects  such  as  identity,  culture  and  ethos.  For  us,  the  Tricord  highlights  the  central  importance  of  identity  and  purpose  in  system  design  and  organisation  health.  Our  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning  places  equal  focus  on  all  elements  of  the  Tricord.      Strategic  workforce  planning  concerns  the  future;  typically  2  or  more  years  .  The  purpose  of  planning  is  to  take  measures  now  that  avoid,  in  the  future,  the  constant  need  to  react  to  events  as  they  unfold,  many  of  which  could  have  been  foreseen.  Working  as  a  system  within  the  wider  organisational  system,  strategic  workforce  planning  helps  management  teams  to  maintain  a  much  closer  match  between  workforce  capabilities  and  organisational  requirements,  reducing  the  need  for    ad  hoc  responses  and  knee  jerk  reactions.      In  our  experience,  Organisations  that  are  over  reactive  are  rarely  whole  and  healthy  organisations,  either  for  people  working  within  them  or  for  their  service  users.  Successful  implementation  of  the  strategic  workforce  plan  must  therefore:    • Be  in  keeping  with  the  identity  of  the  organisation  

• Be  attuned  and  supportive  of  its  cultural  norms,    

• Clearly  deliver  on  the  strategic  ambitions    

• Be  embedded  in  and  supported  by  its  work  systems.    In  this  White  Paper,  we  explore  the  “whole  systems”  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning  and  show  how  it  can  make  a  real  difference  in  the  transformation  of  health  and  social  care  services.  We  take  the  view  that  strategic  workforce  planning  is  in  need  of  a  fresh  perspective  focusing  as  much  on  implementation  and  delivery  as  the  technical  aspects  of  the  discipline.  We  place  strategic  workforce  planning  in  the  context  of  sound  analysis,  careful  design,  robust  change  management  and  innovative  organisation  development.  We  go  on  to  show  that  by  taking  this  approach,  organisations  are  much  better  able  to  match  strategic  direction  with  workforce  capability,  better  able  to  deal  with  resourcing  risks  and  better  equipped  to  respond  to  the  challenges  they  face.    

July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  3  of  15  

The  evidence  suggests  that  while  the  need  for  strategic  workforce  planning  has  never  been  greater,  the  actual  practice  of  producing  deliverable  plans  and  then  implementing  them  is  patchy  iv,  v,  vi,  viii.  We  feel  that  too  much  emphasis  has  been  placed  on  workforce  planning  techniques  and  too  little  emphasis  has  been  placed  on  good  governance  or  on  setting  the  right  context  for  the  delivery  of  planned  outcomes.    Why  is  workforce  planning  on  the  agenda?  In  England,  the  Health  and  Social  Care  Act  2012  established  Health  Education  England  (HEE)  as  the  Accountable  Body  for  education  and  training  for  the  health  and  to  some  extent,  social  care  sectors.  HEE  have  placed  a  high  priority  on  workforce  planning,  making  it  the  primary  route  by  which  education  and  training  requirements  are  gathered  and  aggregated  at  a  national  level,  starting  in  2013.  Local  Education  and  Training  Boards  (LETBs)  play  a  key  role  in  coordinating  this  activity  at  a  local  level.      The  same  act  requires  local  authorities  and  health  trusts  to  work  in  an  increasingly  integrated  way,  overseen  by  newly  created  Health  and  Wellbeing  Boards.  Given  the  size  and  complexity  of  the  NHS  and  the  size  and  diverse  nature  of  providers  of  social  care  (statutory,  public,  private  and  voluntary  sectors),  there  is  considerable  complexity  in  managing  the  integration  of  health  and  social  care  services.    In  the  face  of  such  challenges,  it  is  clear  that  “traditional’”  models  of  workforce  planning,  based  on  notions  of  full  time,  permanent  employment  with  a  single  “employer”  are  no  longer  fit  for  purpose  in  supply-­‐side  planning.  At  the  same  time,  demand  side  planning  based  on  patient  attendance  at  defined  provider  locations  and  timeslots  is  equally  wide  of  the  mark.      A  diverse  set  of  changes  is  taking  place  within  the  wider  environment  that  are  having  an  increasingly  significant  impact  on  future  ways  of  working    -­‐  and  therefore  staffing.  Some  are  driven  by  policy  or  planning,  others  by  wider  socio-­‐

Key  Facts  

• 70%  of  recurrent  costs  in  the  NHS  (over  £76bn)  are  staffing  vi,  xiii  

• The  NHS  in  England  employs  approximately  1.4  million  staff  and  the  independent  sector  a  further  0.5  million,  giving  a  total  workforce  of  1.8  million  spread  across  more  than  1,000  separate  employers  v  

• The  supply  pipeline  to  the  health  care  workforce  is  significant,  with  more  than  £5  billion  spent  annually  on  staff  training  xii  

• Given  the  shift  towards  more  integrated  working  between  health  and  social  care,  it  is  interesting  to  note  that  the  social  care  workforce  is  of  a  similar  size,  at  1.4  million,  but  distributed  over  a  much  larger  employer  base  –  estimated  at  around  35,000  separate  employers  viii  

• In  the  UK  national  health  Service,  shortcomings  in  strategic  workforce  planning  have  led  to  a  situation  where  the  use  of  locum  doctors,  allied  health  care  professionals  and  nurses  has  increased  staffing  costs  ..vi  

• Spending  on  locum  doctors  to  plug  the  gaps  in  A&E  units  in  England  has  risen  by  60%  in  three  years…  (it  costs)  four  times  as  much  as  filling  a  shift  with  permanent  staff  xiv  

July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  4  of  15  

economic  factors.  The  following  examples  serve  to  illustrate  the  emerging  complexities:    • The  increasing  availability  of  mobile  technology  and  supporting  

infrastructure  for  enabling  health  and  social  care  professionals  to  diagnose,  plan  and  deliver  care  in  domestic  settings.  This  impacts  the  design  and  delivery  of  services  but  is  dependent  on  the  availability  of  staff  with  the  relevant  skills  and  knowledge  to  exploit  the  undoubted  opportunities  it  brings.    

• Management  of  funding  and  resources  moving  from  centralised  towards  personalised  

• Increasing  localisation  and  personalisation  of  health  and  care  packages  

• Demographic  pressures  at  both  ends  of  the  population  pyramid:  increasing  birth  rates  and  the  movement  of  the  baby  boomer  generation  into  retirement  and  old  age  

• Socio  economic  and  lifestyle  choices  giving  rise  to  different  profiles  of  health,  ill-­‐health  and  care  requirements  

• Increasing  and  diversifying  types  of  substance  abuse  and  consequential  health  and  social  impacts    

• Long  term  pressure  on  budgets  in  the  face  of  increasing  demand  

• Greater  complexity  in  the  supply  chain  for  health  services  –  greater  separation  between  suppliers  and  service  users  and  more  complexity  in  arrangements  for  commissioning  /  service  management    

• Increasing  expectations  of  employment  flexibility  both  by  employers  and  employees  

• The  increasing  use  of  “zero  hours”  employment  contracts  

It  is  only  by  taking  a  “whole  systems”  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning  that  we  feel  that  it  is  possible  to  address  all  of  these  complexities.      A  Critique  of  Current  Strategic  Workforce  Planning  Practice  In  the  preceding  section,  we  make  the  case  for  a  whole  systems  approach  to  workforce  planning,  arguing  that  many  of  the  traditional  approaches  are  no  longer  fit  for  purpose.  In  previous  client  work,  we  have  seen  a  variety  of  symptoms  brought  about  by  ineffective  strategic  workforce  planning  practice,  which  rarely  appear  on  workforce  planning  risk  logs  let  alone  featuring  at  Board  level  discussions,    despite  the  threat  to  the  delivery  of  organisational  objectives  or  the  management  of  change.  We  show  a  representative  sample  in  the  list  below:    • Lack  of  financial  control  or  engagement  between  business  units,  HR,  

workforce  planners  and  the  finance  functions.,  eg  business  case  (costs,  benefits  and  risks)  for  proposed  change  programmes  not  taking  account  of  workforce  factors  or  costs    

July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  5  of  15  

• Multiple  versions  of  the  “truth”  about  the  workforce;  frailties,  inconsistencies  and  lack  of  confidence  in  data.  Information  used  for  key  workforce  decisions  without  reference  to  its  provenance,  quality  or  risk  

• Incoherence  between  resourcing  for  the  short  term  and  planning  for  the  long  term.  

• Weaknesses  in  the  workforce  management  system;  either  over  reacting  to  over  or  under  supply  with  the  result  that  the  gap  between  supply  and  demand  fluctuates  wildly  or  reacting  too  slowly  and  sluggishly  to  changes  in  operating  conditions  

• The  workforce  management  system  being  consistently  unable  to  deliver  the  right  people,  with  the  right  skills  to  the  right  place  at  the  right  time  at  the  right  cost,  with  the  result  that  the  organisation  unable  to  deliver  its  current  objectives,  and    is  not  agile  enough  to  respond  to  future  changes.            

• The  organisation  is  not  able  to  retain  key  skills  whilst  at  the  same  time  having  an  over  abundance  of  non-­‐key  skills  

• Lack  of  succession  plans  for  the  key  roles  in  the  organisation    

• Absence  of  sponsors,  steering  groups  and  governance  structures  to  oversee  the  delivery  of  workforce  plans  

• Workforce  plans  created  in  isolation,  not  in  collaboration  

• Good  practice  in  planning,  but  rarely  leading  to  demonstratable  achievement  planned  outcomes    

• Workforce  plans  not  taking  appropriate    account  of  people  employed  by  partner  organisations  

• Workforce  planning  expressed  as  a  single  "take  it  or  leave  it"  solutions  rather  than  presenting  analysis  of  alternative  options  and  recommendations  

• Absence  of  robust  risk  analysis,  mitigation    or  contingency  planning  (lack  of  a  “plan  b”)  

• Sub  optimal  (over  reliant  or  underutilised)  use  of  locum,  temporary,  agency  and  “people  bank”  staff,  delivering  poor  value  for  money    v    

• Board  reports  and  discussions  on  people  and  headcount  that  focus  on  current  facts  and  figures,  not  decisions  about  what  needs  to  happen  in  the  future.        

     

July  2015      Strategic  Workforce  Planning  in  Health  and  Social  Care:  Making  The  Case  For  Change      page  6  of  15  

In  addition  to  our  own  observations  from  practice,  we  take  influence  from    published  sources,  illustrated  by  the  following  perspectives:    

The  potential  consequences  of  not  taking  a  wide,  whole  systems  view  of  the  organisation  in  strategic  workforce  planning  include  risks  to  the  future  sustainability  of  the  organisation,  and  whether  change  will  fully  address  the  challenges  facing  the  organisation.  To  illustrate  this  point  a  recent  study  on  care  in  the  community  (Haycock-­‐Stuart  and  Kean,  2012)  x  found  that  “While  nurse  leaders  see  the  leadership  role  as  critical  to  improving  quality  through  workforce  planning  and  organisation,  front  line  staff  perceive  individual  nurse’s  skills  as  more  pertinent  to  the  quality  of  community  nursing  care”.  The  key  point  here  is  that  if  the  scope  and  planning  horizon  of  workforce  planning  are  set  appropriately,  one  of  the  target  outcomes  should  be  quality  of  care,  in  contrast  to  scope  which  appears  to  have  focused  on  the  narrower  outputs  of  staff  numbers  and  structure.  

 Strategic  workforce  planning  is  neither  simple  nor  is  it  cost-­‐free;  organisational  leaders  owe  it  to  their  stakeholders  to  maximise  the  return  on  the  investment  they  are  obliged  to  make  in  workforce  planning.  A  variety  of  approaches  exist  for  evaluating  return  on  investment,  Hodges  Detuncq  and  Schmidt  (2013)  vii  provide  a  set  of  practical  alternatives.  

  “Most  ‘top-­‐down’  directives  don’t  work,  and  most  workforce  plans  come  out  of  a  centralized  corporate  planning  office  or  process.  Effective  planning  cannot  be  something  that  is  ‘handed  down’  as  a  directive  from  top  management  or  corporate  headquarters.  If  low-­‐  and  mid-­‐level  managers  are  not  involved  in  the  workforce  planning  process  (if  they  don’t  feel  that  they  ‘own  it,’  have  any  input,  or  maintain  some  degree  of  control  over  the  process)  they  won’t  use  it.  Line  managers  must  be  involved,  because  most  of  the  basic  information  that  is  needed  to  refine  workforce  plans  comes  from  them.  Either  involve  the  bottom  and  middle  of  the  organization  early  on  or  your  plan  will  fail”.  iv  

   

“Those  that  fail  to  study  and  understand  history  are  bound  to  repeat  it.  This  famous  thought  can  be  applied  directly  to  workforce  planning.  If  you  don’t  understand  precisely  why  workforce  plans  fail,  you  are  likely  to  repeat  the  catastrophic  errors  made  by  others.  But  you  won’t  be  alone,  because  workforce  planning  failures  are  as  common  as  the  fleas  on  a  dog.  Fortunately,  when  workforce  planning  avoids  the  above  “pain  points”  it  has  a  high  ROI.”  Sullivan(2009)  iv  

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 The  workforce  of  the  future,  driven  by  currently  visible  socio-­‐economic  trends  and  emerging  technologies  will  require  a  different  management  mindset  that  takes  into  account      1. The  strategy  behind  the  design  of  work  arrangements  

2. The  settings  in  which  work  is  done.  3. The  organization  of  workflows  and  how  individual  contributors  add  

value.  

4. The  technologies  used  to  support  higher  achievement.  5. The  degree  to  which  employment  arrangements  are  tailored  to  

individuals.  HBR:  The  Third  Wave  of  Virtual  Work  (2013)  ix  

 Our  Approach  In  the  public  sector  (particularly  within  health  and  local  government),  nationally  imposed  methodologies  controlled  by  parliamentary  recommendation  and  regulation  have  brought  the  subject  of  strategic  workforce  planning  onto  the  agendas  of  senior  management  teams,  but  by  their  very  nature  such  initiatives  are  frequently  concerned  with  doing  the  bare  minimum  rather  than  achieving  the  best  outcome  The  Tricordant  approach  to  workforce  planning  is  underpinned  by  our  belief  that  workforce  design  and  change  is  much  more  than  modelling  supply  and  demand  (however  sophisticated  the  workforce  analytics  may  be).    A  precondition    to  any  successful  workforce  planning  activity  is  a  clear  understanding  of  an  organisations,  purpose,  strategy,  and  operating  model.      All  of  these  factors  influence  the  options  available  to  manage  the  workforce.        At  the  start  of  any  engagement,  we  work  with  clients  to  help  them  to  think  through  the  assumptions  that  they  bring  into  their  workforce  management  and  challenge  the  alignment  of  assumptions  to  the  Strategy.  This  can  include  strategic  assumptions  that  may  not  be  backed  up  by  existing  workforce  capability  and  assumptions  about  capability  that  limit  strategic  ambition.    

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A  unique  aspect  of  the  Tricordant  approach  in  analysing  how  an  organization  operates  is  the  concept  of  "Significant  Events",  which  we  define  as  points  within  business  processes  in  which:  a)  A  new  concept  is  created  b)  Material  or  information  is  converted  or  people  transformed  c)  People  are  inspired,  healed,  energised  d)  Any  combination  of  these,  leading  to  a  change  in  defining  identity  of  the  input.    We  propose  that  if  organisations  identify  these  points,  they  will  then  know  what  resources  they  need  and  how  they  should  be  aligned  to  increase  the  possibility  of  achieving  them.  Achieving  Significant  Events  often  requires  deep  knowledge  and  difficult  to  find  skills,  both  of  which  are  within  the  domain  of  strategic  workforce  planning  to  deliver.      The  Analysis  stage  involves  identifying,  selecting  and  analysing  the  most  appropriate  information  on  those  factors  influencing  workforce  decisions.  This  is  a  notoriously  difficult  area  where  the  risk  of    “analysis  paralysis”  is  at  is  greatest  –  the  perceived  need  for  ever  more  data  and  deferring  difficult  decisions  until  information  is  shown  to  be  complete  and  perfect.  Our  approach  is  to  help  clients  to  assess  the  risks  and  uncertainties  in  the  available  data  sets  and  to  help  them  to  build  a  consensus  around  managing  them.  The  outcomes  of  good  analysis  are  insights  that  are  good  enough  on  which  to  base  workforce  decisions,  a  point  emphasised  by  Kemsley  (2012)  i.      Based  on  solid  factual  foundations  with  known  risks  and  agreed  assumptions,  we  help  our  clients  through  a  process  of  building  and  analysing  alternative  options  during  the  Synthesis  stage.  This  stage  of  the  cycle  involves  selecting  the  business  change  interventions  that  are  most  likely  to  deliver  the  required  changes  in  the  workforce.  The  type  of  interventions  that  normally  occur  within  the  synthesis  include:    • Developing  new  knowledge  and  skills  

• Talent  management  and  development  initiatives  

• Changes  to  working  arrangements  for  individuals  and  groups  of  employees  

• Changes  to  the  way  that  services  are  commissioned,  delivered  and  managed  

• Recruitment  initiatives  

• Retention  activities    

• Downsizing  and  outplacement  

• Upsizing  and  bringing  into  core  

• Succession  planning  

• Interdependences  with  Organisational  Design  activities  

• Changes  in  Organisational  structures  

• Changes  in  budgets  

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 It  is  our  experience  that  the  successful  navigation  of  this  stage  of  the  cycle  involves  recognising  and  managing  the  inevitable  risks  (the  governance  of  which  we  cover  later).  One  such  risk  arises  from  limitation  of  ambition  or  creativity  in  looking  at  the  full  range  of  options  open  for  the  management  of  workforce  capability  gaps.  Another  risk  comes  from  the  assumption  that  all  characteristics  of  future  supply  and  demand  modelling  can  be  predicted  on  the  basis  of  projection  from  the  past.  In  our  experience,  stakeholders  lack  confidence  in  forecasts  because  they  expect  them  to  be  an  accurate  predictions  of  the  future  (which  are  always  wrong,  so  why  bother?)  rather  than  a  continually  evolving  set  of  assumptions  resulting  in  a  particular  future,  which  becomes  the  baseline  for  planning  and  managing  future  change.        This  point  in  the  cycle  is  where  we  recommend  alternative  approaches  that  take  into  account  the  wider  environmental  factors  impacting  the  organisation.  One  of  the  techniques  we  use  with  clients  is  Scenario  Planning  in  which  factors  (i.e.  changes  to  assumptions)  currently  considered  to  be  of  potentially  high  impact  are  used  to  test  workforce  strategy  options.      We  take  the  view  that  the  purpose  of  strategic  workforce  planning  is  to  create  a  workable  plan  that  delivers  the  necessary  workforce  outcomes.  While  this  may  appear  to  be  a  truism,  the  point  is  that  a  workable  workforce  plan  will  inevitably  include  some  level  of  Managing  Change;  managing  the  implementation  of  workforce  plans  should  include  all  of  the  elements  of  any  other  well-­‐structured  change  initiative.  Our  approach  is  to  work  with  clients  to  provide  challenge  and  guidance  around  the  management  of  implementation.  This  is  to  ensure  that  initiatives  have  appropriate  leadership,  governance  structures,  resources  and  visibility  to  deliver  the  planned  changes  in  line  with  cultural  norms  of  the  organisation.  We  believe  that  this  point  sets  our  approach  apart  in  delivering  and  maintaining  whole,  healthy  organisations.          The  point  at  which  business  change  becomes  embedded  in  our  approach  is  in  Taking  Stock.  Re-­‐looking  at  what  has  actually  been  achieved  in  relation  to  initial  strategic  intent  and  in  relation  to  the  current  /  emerging  situation  gives  the  opportunity  to  move  on  to  the  next  priority  where  possible  and  to  re-­‐enforce  any  previous  initiatives  where  necessary.    Which  brings  us  back  to  the  Tricord  TM.    We  find  that  strategic  workforce  planning  activity  in  many  organisations  is  concerned  with  and  confined  to  the  “Systems”  domain,  focusing  on  data,  modelling,  techniques  and  structure,  with  ineffective  links  to  strategy,  culture  or  identity.      In  our  experience,  it  is  only  by  taking  the  wider  view  both  of  the  organization  and  the  strategic  workforce  planning  function  that  the  change  journey  can  be  fully  understood  and  therefore  managed.    

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Our  Insights  

The  Cyclic  Nature  of  Strategic  Workforce  Planning  We  deliberately  show  strategic  workforce  planning  in  the  form  of  a  cycle  -­‐  this  opens  up  the  question  of  planning  cycle  time:  just  how  often  and  how  fast  should  the  cycle  operate?      We  believe  that  planning  cycle  times  are  entirely  context  specific  and  should  be  influenced  by  a  number  of  factors:    • The  internal  and  external  

business  environment    

• Current  and  required  operational  performance  

• The  characteristics  and  current  state  and  the  forecast  future  state  of  the  workforce  

• Workforce  dynamics:  Flows  of  starters,  leavers,  movers,  the  time  taken  to  bring  trainees  fully  up  to  speed.    

• The  level  of  planning  –  micro  versus  macro  level  changes  

• Organisational  planning  and  performance  management  cycles.  

• Performance  measurement  must  be  conducted  more  frequently  than  planning  so  that    workforce  planning  decisions  can  be  made  on  the  basis  of  the  latest  information,  and  not  on  gut  feel  only.    

• In  good  workforce  planning  practice,  there  is  an  irreducible  minimum  ‘tick  over’  cycle  rate  ensuring  that  workforce  plans  remain  valid,  ,  even  if  the  organisation  strategy  remains  unchanged,  and  to  maintain  a  core  level  of  expertise  in  workforce  planning.  

Scoping  and  Prioritising  We  recommend  that  workforce  planning  cycle  times  be  driven  by  strategic,  operational  and  tactical  demands  rather  than  a  fixed,  centrally  determined  planning  cycle.  This  means  that  different  planning  cycles  can  and  should  be  in  operation  for  different  parts  of  the  organisation  and  for  different  workforce  segments,  driven  by  an  agreed  and  managed  set  of  priorities.  It  does  not  imply  however  a  need  to  address  the  whole  workforce  all  of  the  time.  This  may  seem  counter-­‐intuitive,  particularly  where  organisations  face  regulatory  requirements  to  demonstrate  workforce  planning  as  part  of  ongoing  governance.        

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The  notion  of  segmenting  the  workforce  by  strategic  priority  has  been  described  by  several  authors:  Bechet  (2000)  ii  suggests    • Focus  on  issues,  not  organizations.  

• Tailor  the  process  for  each  

• Focus  on  particular  positions,  not  all  positions.  

• The  organisation  needs  time  to  respond.    Taking  this  into  account  allows  plans  to  be  segmented  into  activities  that  can  be  delivered  in  manageable  pieces  without  succumbing  to  the  very  real  danger  of  over  optimism  about  what  can  be  practically  achieved  in  any  given  timescale.    

Healthy  Tensions  We  recognise  that  some  client  issues  are  short  term  and  need  quick  wins,  some  are  driven  by  the  need  for  a  longer-­‐term  view  and  that  the  two  coexist  in  most  organisations.  Recognising  and  managing  this  as  a  “healthy  tension”  can  actually  be  very  helpful  by  providing  legitimate  challenge  around  planning  horizons  and  planning  cycle  speed.  In  our  support  for  clients,  we  help  them  to  identify  these  tensions  and  guide  them  to  the  level  of  planning  appropriate  to  the  task  in  hand.  We  believed  that  this  is  a  far  more  pragmatic  approach  then  adopting  a  rigid  “one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all”  planning  framework.  

Workforce  Risk  –  the  missing  element  in  the  Business  Case  Whatever  the  choice  of  organisational  strategy,  unless  the  organisation  is  a  start  up,  there  is  already  a  workforce.  Any  change  to  strategy  must  be  delivered  through  the  workforce  and  this  inevitably  leads  to  change.  Workforce  strategy  is  therefore  a  key  determinant  of  the  success  of  a  new  strategy.    Large  business  change  programmes  frequently  have  business  cases  that  show  significant  reductions  in  cost  due  to  planned  changes  in  workforce  composition  but  rarely  take  into  account  environmental  change  following  the  completion  of  the  programme.  As  a  result  the  future  sustainability  of  the  change  programme  is  put  at  risk  in  a  way  that  rarely  appears  in  risk  registers  or  financial  appraisals.  Our  whole  systems  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning  and  business  change  ensures  that  the  less  visible,  more  difficult  to  pin  down  factors  involving  people  behaviours,  attitudes,  beliefs  and  resistances  are  fully  taken  into  account  in  delivering  workforce  design  and  change.    This  helps  to  ensure  that  workforce  plans  are  practical  and  pragmatic  and  that  their  required  outcomes  are  fully  delivered.    An  illustration  of  this  point  is  in  the  way  that  NHS  organisations  in  the  UK  deal  with  short  term,  temporary  staffing  difficulties.  One  of  the  impacts  of  tight  staffing  levels  is  that  when  higher  than  planned  absences  or  staff  turnover  takes  place  say  in  critical  services,  the  reaction  of  the  organisational  system  is  to  deploy  temporary  cover  at  short  notice  through  people  banks;  the  shorter  the  notice,  the  higher  the  cost.  The  cost  of  managing  the  shortage  internally  is  an  “easy-­‐to-­‐under-­‐report”  element  of  this  cost.  Typically,  great  attention  is  paid  to  the  operational  efficiency  of  such  arrangements  and  success  is  measured  on  the  

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ability  to  fill  all  open  roles.  Our  analysis  indicates  that  between  2%  and  3%  of  NHS  staffing  is  continually  provided  on  this  basis.  The  focus  on  operational  efficiency  masks  the  real  issue  of  addressing  the  problem  as  a  supply  side  workforce  management  issue.  Predictive  analytics  can  play  a  key  role  in  managing  this  in  the  most  cost  effective  way  for  the  organisation  in  that  realistic  targets,  forecasts  and  costs  can  be  planned  and  acted  upon  rather  than  having  to  react  after  the  event.  This  is  a  situation  where  rapid  “cycle  time”  workforce  planning  can  be  an  extremely  cost  effective  way  of  managing  seasonal  variations  in  staff  turnover  and  absence.    The  Distinctiveness  of  the  Tricordant  Approach  It  is  our  belief  that  process,  tools,  templates  and  modelling  methods  should  reflect  the  culture,  needs  and  norms  of  each  organisation  and  that  by  taking  whole  systems  approach  there  are  real,  previously  untapped  benefits  to  be  gained  from  our  approach  to  strategic  workforce  planning.  Elements  that  we  include  in  our  approach  to  workforce  strategy  include:    • Leadership  styles  and  behaviours  that  are  most  likely  to  deliver  a  flourishing,  

sustainable  workforce  strategy  

• Knowledge  and  skills  required  to  gather  the  best  external  intelligence  to  inform  sustainable  workforce  strategy  

• Data  capabilities  around  leading  measures  and  predictive  analytics    

• Supporting  clients  in  building  the  case  for  strategic  change  based  on  workforce  insights  

• Building  workforce  strategy  into  an  iterative  cycle  to  manage  gaps  between  organisational  demand  and  supply  

• Helping  to  identify  the  best  sourcing  strategies  

• Identifying  and  analysing  alternatives  for  managing  the  commissioned  /  indirectly  employed  workforce  (i.e.  not  employed  but  still  has  a  high  impact  on  service  users).  

Case  Study:  Birmingham  City  Council  Part  of  an  organisational  transformation  programme,  the  Excellence  in  People  Management  programme  at  Birmingham  City  Council  set  out  to  fundamentally  change  the  approach  that  the  organisation  took  towards  managing  it’s  people.  The  programme  introduced  a  new  operating  model  for  HR,  a  new  HR  Information  System,  employee  portals  and  a  new  approach  to  managing  people  performance.  It  shifted  the  emphasis  and  accountability  in  managing  people  issues  to  line  managers  and  positioned  HR  firmly  in  the  rôles  of  strategic  adviser  and  expert,  while  addressing  the  legitimate  concerns  over  administrative  efficiency  and  effectiveness  of  the  management  of  employee  relations.    A  key  element  of  the  transformation  was  the  formation  expert  groups  in  HR;  Reward  and  Recognition,  Employee  Engagement,  Organisational  Design  and  Workforce  Intelligence  and  Planning  (“WIP”).  The  remit  of  the  WIP  team  was  to  

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build  a  strategic  workforce  planning  capability,  using  workforce  intelligence  as  its  foundation.  The  authority  is  responsible  for  providing  of  a  diverse  and  complex  portfolio  of  services;  having  insights  into  the  dynamics  of  the  workforce  was  at  the  core  of  its  aspirations  to  transform  those  services.  It  was  impossible  however  to  ignore  the  tightening  fiscal  demands  in  the  aftermath  of  the  2008  financial  crisis  even  though  demands  for  its  services  were  increasing.      In  order  to  predict  and  respond  to  an  increasingly  unstable  operating  environment,  it  was  clear  that  the  authority  would  need  a  much  richer  fact  base  on  which  to  base  its  newly  developed  capability  in  workforce  demand  and  supply  modelling.  The  WIP  team  responded  to  these  challenges  by  collaborating  with  local  universities  and  professional  bodies,  commissioning  research,  marshaling  economic  data  from  a  wider  set  of  sources  and  building  alternative  planning  scenarios,  with  which  to  test  strategic  planning  assumptions.  In  taking  this  approach,  the  WIP  team  was  able  to  provide  to  the  authority,  for  the  first  time,  real  strategic  insights  into  factors  affecting  its  own  workforce  and  to  be  a  strategic  partner  in  shaping,  selecting  and  implementing  workforce  planning  options.    As  a  result,  the  WIP  team  became  “…pivotal  to  delivering  headcount  and  budget  reductions  while  dealing  with  the  growing  financial  constrictions…”  iii.  Using  these  new  capabilities,  the  council  was  quickly  able  to  make  a  3  per  cent  reduction  in  headcount  (cutting  costs  by  £7  million  a  year)  and  a  23  per  cent  reduction  in  reliance  on  agency  staff  (saving  £3  million  per  year).  The  WIP  team  has  been  at  the  heart  of  the  continuing  activity  to  consolidate  and  increase  these  savings  for  the  authority.    Roger  Cooper,  Associate  consultant  with  Tricordant,  undertook  an  extended  assignment  with  the  authority  as  part  of  the  transformation  project  team,  providing  the  following  support:    • Leading  process  design  for  the  WIP  function  

• Change  Management  

• Organisational  design  and  implementation  

• Establishing  relationships  with  universities  and  other  research  providers  

• Building  the  workforce  intelligence  capability  

• Developing  and  deploying  a  range  of  workforce  planning  models  and  tools  

• Support  for  the  Social  Care  teams  in  analysis  and  detailed  supply  and  demand  modelling  

Analysis  It  is  clear  that  by  investing  time  and  resource  into  the  workforce  planning  team,  the  authority  were  able  to  create  effective  plans,  based  on  “single  version  of  the  truth”  workforce  intelligence.  Seeing  these  plans  though  to  implementation  delivered  tangible  differences  to  the  financial  performance  of  the  organisation.  Bringing  together  external  information  sources  with  internal  data  allowed  real  insights  into  underlying  causes  of  some  long  running  workforce  issues  and  this  

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allowed  some  tough  decisions  to  be  taken  at  a  time  of  unprecedented  financial  challenge.    During  the  implementation  stage  of  the  HR  transformation,  the  WIP  team  experienced  early  resistance  to  what  was  initially  seen  as  a  centralised  function  making  unreasonable  demands  on  directorates.  As  a  loosely  federated  organisation,  each  directorate  had  its  own  culture  and  a  good  degree  of  autonomy;  disregarding  a  central  edict  was  the  cultural  norm  in  several  parts  of  the  organisation.  The  resistance  to  the  new  workforce  planning  processes  was  gradually  broken  down  by  engaging  directorate  staff  in  the  process  from  the  defining  stage  onwards  and  working  collaboratively  to  plan  and  deliver  changes  to  achieve  the  required  outcomes.      The  key  learning  here  is  that  even  the  impression  of  a  centrally  dictated  process  can  disengage  potential  beneficiaries.    While  a  process  may  be  outlined  centrally,  successful  planning  and  implementation  of  workforce  interventions  must  start  locally,  with  the  people  that  know  most  about  the  day-­‐to-­‐day  service  challenges.      

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   References    i   Maximising  the  effectiveness  of  HR  data,  Nick  Kemsley  on  25  Jan  2012  in  HR  practice,  HR  

strategy,  http://www.personneltoday.com/hr/maximising-­‐the-­‐effectiveness-­‐of-­‐hr-­‐data/  ii   Bechet,  T.  B.  (2000)  Developing  Staffing  Strategies  That  Work:  Implementing  pragmatic  

non-­‐traditional  approaches.  http://search.un.org/search?as_q=&as_epq=%22developing+staffing+strategies%22&as_oq=&as_eq=&ie=utf8&output=xml_no_dtd&client=UN_Website_en&proxystylesheet=UN_Website_en&oe=utf8&as_q=&q=&adv=true&as_occt=any&site=&lr=lang_en&as_qdr=all&as_filetype=&num=10&sort=score&Submit2=Search  

iii     How  HR  made  a  difference  –  People  Management,  25th  November  2010,  CIPD  iv   Sullivan,  J,  2002,  “Why  Workforce  Planning  Fails  (part  2)”,  

http://www.ere.net/2002/08/19/why-­‐workforce-­‐planning-­‐fails-­‐part-­‐2/  v   “Locum  Doctor  Costs  Spiral  Due  To  Workforce  Planning  Failures”  

http://www.nhsprofessionals.nhs.uk/News/Pages/article109.aspx  vi   NHS  Workforce  Planning  Limitations  and  possibilities  

http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-­‐workforce-­‐planning  vii   NHS  and  social  care  workforce  -­‐  Meeting  our  needs  now  and  in  the  future?  

http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/time-­‐to-­‐think-­‐differently/publications/nhs-­‐and-­‐social-­‐care-­‐workforce  

viiii   Eboral  C,  Griffiths  D  (2008).  The  Third  Report  of  the  Skills  for  Care’s  Research  and  Intelligence  Unit:  The  state  of  the  adult  social  care  workforce  in  England.  Leeds:  Skills  for  Care.  

ix   Hodges  Detuncq,  T  and  Schmidt,  L,  2013,  “Examining  Integrated  Talent  Management”,  T+D.  Sep2013,  Vol.  67  Issue  9,  p30-­‐35.  

x   Haycock-­‐Stuart,  E.  and  Kean,  S.  2012,  “Contrasting  perceptions  about  the  delivery  of  care  in  the  community”,    Nursing  Management  March  2012  |  Volume  18  |  Number  10  

xi   The  Third  Wave  Of  Virtual  Work,  2013,  Harvard  Business  Review,  00178012,  Jan/Feb2013,  Vol.  91,  Issue  1  /  2    

xii   Workforce  Planning  Guidelines  2014/15  Health  Education  England,  published  16th  April  2014,  http://hee.nhs.uk/wp-­‐content/uploads/sites/321/2014/04/Workforce-­‐planning-­‐guidance-­‐2014-­‐15.pdf  

xiii   “About  the  National  Health  Service  (NHS)”  http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/thenhs/about/Pages/overview.aspx  

xiv   “Sharp  rise  in  spending  on  A&E  locum  doctors”    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-­‐25713374