Who is afraid of population decline?

The struggle of keeping rural population decline on the Dutch agenda

October 29th 2020, Bettina Bock

Today: information & reflection

InformationWhat does population decline mean in NL?How is population decline addressed by policymakers?

Reflection What can we learn from the Netherlands? Which processes are similar and different?

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1. The Netherlands as metropolis

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still also decline – in the ‘periphery’

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Prognosis: max +/- 20%

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Resulting problems vacant houses

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Shrinking regions are ageing

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Lose highly educated residents

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Remaining population low SES

Lower education Lower income More unemployment More reliance on social

benefits More long term poverty

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More health problems & shorter life

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In sum: lower overall wellbeing

Economic growth Household income (un)employment Health Access services Social cohesion

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2. Dutch shrinkage policies:

2009: 1st intergovernmental shrinkage action plan awareness raising

Identifying 7 shrinking & 16 anticipation regions Main problems: (vacant) housing & services Providing additional funds for training & awareness raising Some funds for civic experiments around service innovation

Main message to local governments: don’t fight population decline but invest in maintaining liveability for remaining residents

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Evaluation 1st actionplan in 2014

Limited problem definition Little attention for mobility & (digital) connectivity Lack of investment in regional economy Lack of investment in border-crossing collaboration No recognition of accumulation & intersection of problems Not recognition of negative effects of generic policies (e.g.

schools, transport, health, housing corporations)Flaws in governance structure: Let regional governments lead Include civic organisations Accept responsibility as central government

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2016: 2nd action plan

More shrinking regions & more problems!

Main problems: ● Vacant housing & real estate,

● economic vitality & labour market,

● (digital) connectivity,

● Maintenance services (culture, education, health/social care)

In time tools & new messages● Invest in smart specialisation● From regional partnerships● Let’s discuss common challenges, e.g. climate

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Evaluation 2nd action plan in 2019

Effect in the regions Main problems are still the same Sense of urgency & readiness to act in regions differs Leadership roles for provincial government and housing

corporations

Effects of national policy Little progress in problems arising from generic policies State should do more – not just facilitator Region deal as new catalysator

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2018: (re)discovery of regional development

Region deals:

public –private (co-financed) investment in selected priorities with governments, businesses, knowledge institutions & third sector (950 million state)

200 million for shrinking regions with variable focus:

Education, labour market, tourism, sustainable housing, sustainable energy, nature inclusive agriculture. marine economy ....

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The future: 3rd action plan ?????????????

Mainstream policy context Prominence of metropolitan agenda: investing in urban

growth: economy, infrastructure & housing Crisis 2008: regional economies hit hard with slow

recovery Post crisis 2008 decentralizing social domain to with

budget cuts And now COVID19

Increasing spatial & social inequality: income, health, infrastructure

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Against background of social unrest

Discontent & populist voting in ‘periphery’ Academics: importance of cohesive development Joint lobby of shrinking provinces & rural municipalities Municipalities complain about bankruptcy Discussions around spatial injustice

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Paradox of Dutch policies

Urban bias in mainstream policy = state interest Urbanisation and rural exodus seen as natural Definition of shrinkage as regional problem/weakness

Population decline is not seen as an urgent problemIs not a priority & continuity shrinkage policy uncertain

BUT regional policy might gain importanceWith climate change, need for sustainable energy

and following COVID19

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3. Reflection: what can we learn from NL?

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The Netherlands as ‘extreme case’ :

• Population decline not just in rural & remote regions

• Results also from general transitions (urbanisation,

globalisation, demographic transition, crisis)

Population decline is not ‘destiny’ or ‘nature’

It can hit everywhere (.g. Detroit!)

Population decline & rural urban relations

Population decline is not just about numbers It undermines wellbeing & social cohesion

Accumulation of material problemsExperience of urban bias and disrespect discontent and distrust

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Need to restore relations: rural-urban and centre-periphery

people oriented supporting inclusive wellbeing

Recognising place-specificneeds & opportunities

Acknowledging interdependency & reciprocity

as common interest & opportunity

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Thank you for your attention

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