who is staying and for how long: re-migration of canada’s immigrants in the 1990s margaret...
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WHO IS STAYING AND FOR HOW LONG:WHO IS STAYING AND FOR HOW LONG:RE-MIGRATION OF CANADA’S IMMIGRANTS RE-MIGRATION OF CANADA’S IMMIGRANTS
IN THE 1990sIN THE 1990s
Margaret MichalowskiClaude Grenier
Demography DivisionStatistics Canada
Canadian Population Society Annual MeetingsToronto, May 30 - June 1, 2002
PLANPLAN
Setting the background Why re-migration of immigrants is important to Canada What do we know about re-migration of immigrants
Changing international context How Canadian immigrants are behaving
Return migration trend from Canada in the 1990s Recency of arrival and propensity to return Country of origin vs. propensity to return
Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.
71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 93-94 95-96 97-98 99-000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Why re-migration of immigrants is importantWhy re-migration of immigrants is importantDuring the 1990s, immigration added 7 out of 10 persons to During the 1990s, immigration added 7 out of 10 persons to Canadian population growthCanadian population growth
% of population growth
Immigration/Population growth
Immigrants
Numbers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
What do we know about re-migration What do we know about re-migration of immigrantsof immigrants
Low immigration high emigration?
Re-migration is related to country of origin and
other personal characteristics (age, sex, occupation)
First 5 years after arrival are critical
Longer stays produce less emigration
Changing international contextChanging international context
Globalization
Trade agreementsCanada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, 1989North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994Asia - rapid economic development
Further diversification of origins of Canadian
immigrants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20 years 15 - 19 years
< 15 years
Immigration from Asia during the 1980s and 1990s has Immigration from Asia during the 1980s and 1990s has significantly altered the ethnic composition of the significantly altered the ethnic composition of the Canadian foreign-born populationCanadian foreign-born population
1996 Census
All others
22.6
Asia39.6
Europe19.3
UK 12.4
US 6.1
%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
20 years 15 - 19 years
< 15 years
1981 Census
All others 9.8
Asia 8.5
Europe51.9
UK23.7
US 6.1
10.7
11.7
50.3
21.4
5.9
22.2
51.8
4.2
18.3
3.57.8
29.5
58.0
8.4
15.6
26.9
27.8
21.3
Estimation Model for Emigration of ImmigrantsEstimation Model for Emigration of Immigrants
DEPARTURES OF IMMIGRANTSduring 1991 - 1996
1991-96cohort
Before 1991 cohort
Adjustment for mortality
Adjustment for mortality
Adjustment for coverage
1991-96immigrants
Immigrantpopulation
1996 Census
1991 CensusC.I.C.
Immigrantpopulation
Adjustment for coverage
Immigrated before 1991
Immigrated 1991-96
Overall levels of re-migration: 1981-86 to 1991-96Overall levels of re-migration: 1981-86 to 1991-96
Recent immigrant cohorts - immigrated during the same period as their emigration period“Older” immigrant cohorts - immigrated prior to the period of their emigration
Period of emigration
1981-86 1986-91 1991-96
Foreign-born emigrants 147,000 241,000 228,000 Recent cohorts 53,000 50,000 119,000 "Older" cohorts 94,000 191,000 109,000
All emigrants* 341,000 312,000 402,000 Temporarily abroad 53,000 84,000 150,000 Emigrated 288,000 228,000 252,000
* Census Coverage Study estimates
Overall, re-migration of immigrants has slowed down Overall, re-migration of immigrants has slowed down during the beginning of the 1990s; however, for Asian during the beginning of the 1990s; however, for Asian and African immigrants the opposite is trueand African immigrants the opposite is true
0
2
4
6
8
10
12%
Central/SouthAmerica/
Caribbean
Europe Africa Asia Oceania
Total 1986-91 = 5.7
Total 1991-96 = 4.8
‘86-’91 ‘91-’96
5.55.0 4.6
1.8 2.0
6.7 6.5
9.7
6.3
7.6
‘86-’91 ‘91-’96 ‘86-’91 ‘91-’96 ‘86-’91 ‘91-’96 ‘86-’91 ‘91-’96
During 1991-96, among the top source countries, recent During 1991-96, among the top source countries, recent cohorts of immigrants had several times higher cohorts of immigrants had several times higher propensity to re-migrate than the “older” cohorts did; propensity to re-migrate than the “older” cohorts did; immigrants from the U.S. and Poland are exceptionsimmigrants from the U.S. and Poland are exceptions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
U.S. El Salvador U.K. Poland Lebanon China Hong Kong Philippines Vietnam India
%
Recent cohorts
“Older” cohorts
All countries, recent cohort, 10.1
All countries, “old” cohort, 2.7
Immigrants in 1991-96 (‘000)
27.3 17.8 27.7 40.7 28.6 107.4 130.7 82.4 35.8 87.2
Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.With the exception of the 1970s, re-migration of Canadian immigrants, With the exception of the 1970s, re-migration of Canadian immigrants, relative to immigration, was higher than that of American immigrantsrelative to immigration, was higher than that of American immigrants
1,175,000 228,000
5,766,000 1,553,000 17,916,000 4,451,000
1,331,000 388,000 7,869,000 1,950,000 1,440,000 345,000 4,334,000 1,176,000 1,420,000 468,000 3,213,000 900,000 1,575,000 352,000 2,500,000 425,000
EM/IMM
0.194
0.269
0.292
0.3300.223
EM/IMM
0.248
0.248
0.2800.170
0.240 0.271
Canada U.S.
ImmigrantsForeign-born
EmigrantsImmigrants
Foreign-born Emigrants
Period
1991-96
Total 1951 - 90
1981-901971-801961-701951-60
Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.Contrary to Canada’s immigrants, recent cohorts of U.S. immigrants Contrary to Canada’s immigrants, recent cohorts of U.S. immigrants have lower re-migration rates than old cohortshave lower re-migration rates than old cohorts
Canada 1986 - 90 U.S. 1980 - 90
Recent cohort Old cohort Recent cohort Old cohort
All
Males
Females
1.23 1.00 0.77 1.13
1.35 0.93 0.84 1.22
1.11 1.08 0.70 1.05
Annual re-migration rate (%)
Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.Some comparisons with immigrants to U.S.In the 1980s, Americans were leaving Canada more often than In the 1980s, Americans were leaving Canada more often than Canadians were U.S.Canadians were U.S.
Departures (annual)
Americans from Canada
1980 - 90 5,400 or 3.4%
1991 - 96 950 or 0.8%
Canadians from U.S.
1980 - 90 11,000 or 1.4%
1991 - 96 ?
What next?What next?
More personal characteristics
(age, education, occupation)
More detailed analysis of impact of length of
residence in Canada
Pre-immigration experience
Expand the period up to 2001
Destination of re-migration - U.S. vs. other countries