“who misvotes; the effect of differential cognition costs on election outcomes
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Aeica Ecic Jal: Ecic Plic 2009, 1:1, 229257p://www.aeaweb.g/aicles.pp?i=10.1257/pl.1.1.229
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T :://www.w./.?=10.1257/.1.1.229
Who Misvotes? The Effect of Differential
Cognition Costs on Election Outcomes
B Kelly Shue and Erzo F. P. Luttmer*
I ves ave egligible cgii css, ball la sl aec eleci ces. We exple eviais aial v-ig sig qasi-a vaiai i caiae ae placee balls e 2003 Caliia ecall eleci. We f a icaiaes ve saes als ble we ei aes ae ajace e aes aj caiaes. All else eqal, ve sae gais
ae lage i pecics wi ige peceages pl ecae,p, i-pa ves. A aj caiae a isppiallaacs ves sc pecics aces a elecal isavaage.We als exple wic vig eclg plas a bas ii-gae isvig. (JEL D72)
Copyright 2009, American Economic Association; reproduced with permission of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
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(.., S K. R 1998). T k - k, , . A A w . I
. W w .
M w . F, , w . W H A. S (1955) k ( J Ck 1996 w), w w w q. W w w -. Fw J A. L D Lk-R (2002), w w - . W w w . O w q -k w (.., B C. M D F. S 2001, J C . 2004, R H. T S B 2004, A L O S. M 2007).
O - S DV (2007). W - , M S. R (2001) w , k mCIw w k mCIC. W -q , w () . A - , w w . O
. W - 1 300, w R.
S, . P w . J M. M J A. Kk (1998), J G. S. K J A. S (2004), A K Aw L () w 2 . Hw, w- w-kw (.., D A. T 1975, M Kk 1998, K S 2004, D E. H Kk I 2006). F, . T, w
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VoL. 1 no. 1 231ShuE And LuttmEr: Who mISVotES?
U S w w - - lses . T Pk J. B P B C, FL 2000 US P E. W
B kw 3,407 P B C k,2 q w A G G W. B - B 537 . N B A G w w P B C (.., J W.W . 2001 R L. S 2002).
Uk , . V . W w w w. F, w w . S, w - w w . B D -, C M. B, .
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2003 C . C - D 1, q . D w q , w () (-) . T w . F 1 . W R J. P
- w . W w , , . I , w - k . F, w , , k -. W C w .Hw, w k .
2 I T w N 9, 2000, B , W I k k E N w A G.
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W
( ).W w
. M 0.30 - .3 W . P w - , w MR. A . (2004) T S. D (2007). C , w . U - , w , q, w , , - .
3 T w w .
Figure 1
nes: T P - ( 1 80) w . A k P - w A Sw . W P 0.08 w Sw .P ( 1.8 ) - w Sw, .
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Vote
Share
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Ordered by Assembly District-County
Vote Share for Minor Candidate Ronald Palmieri
Adjacent to Arnold Schwarzenegger
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A j , D , B, x R , A A. Sz, 62 . WSz B 17 , -
Sz 0.07 47 . T 2000 US , 2004 W , 1974 NH , 1985 I . F, - j j j , US . I , j j , , x .
Aj q . W , j . N z , j j . O j . F, ( ) . S, j x . F x, - ,
. T, x - j .
I. The California Recall Election Dataset
A C O 7, 2003 - G G D. V q:
() S Gy dvs b c (v) c Gvn? Ys/N
() Cns scc Gy dvs s Gvn s c: V n[ls 135 ns]
V q q. I 50 Y q, q -. P q (65 $3,500 - ), 135 D. T x G W. C, M M C C, K E. TzR.
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B x . T (58 ). T - (80 ). B , 157 (-). C z ,RWQOJMVAHBSGZXNTCIEKUPDYFL, .
D C (55
). T 1 . T 93.56 , 0.05 132 . F , -: Sz (R), B (D), T MC (R) major can-didates. I x , P M. Cj, j . A minor candidates.4
C : ,
, . P q . S q x . O q . F, q x -. A , . T . I , 45 (19 )
4 R () Cj , () - 5 , () .
Table 12003 Caliornia Recall Election Results
R C V N
1 A Sz 48.60 3,747,4462 Cz M. B 31.63 2,439,1333 T MC 13.33 1,027,926
4 P M Cj 2.77 213,5475 A H 0.55 42,6546 P V. U 0.29 22,2677 L F 0.20 15,4898 G C 0.16 12,7129 G B. Sz 0.14 10,96010 M C 0.13 10,129:
25 E T K 0.0335 2,58650 M J. Wz 0.0179 1,38475 S A. M 0.0103 791100 D D MM 0.0067 517135 T R L 0.0022 172
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, 43 (33 ) , 11 (4 ) . E .T Ax B.
W z 152 -
-.5
W - I G S (IGS) U C, B. T - .6 T - - , , . B , - US C 2000 IGS . S - Ax B.
II. Empirical Strategy
I , j - . T (.., Az . 2001 H E. B . 2001) . T , Az . (2004) D (2007) z j . U - 2003C , D
j j . D 0.15 j j .Az . (2004) x . H, x , .., j q 0.4 j . C , - .
B Az . (2004) D (2007) - j j j. T, x j j . T x
5 T . W S I ( 1.4 ). I
, .
6 W IGS . H, - IGS . F - 85 C . T IGS .
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j . F x,D G B. Sz.S Sz Sz Sz j Sz ,
j- . T, D Az j. I , j -, 50 .
T j, j z j - ( Ax A). W j , , , j. I j j . N j . B j j , j .
I j . I 60 ( 51 -) - , z j j . F x, Sz
- , j. I Sz - -, j . F, j j - . S j Ax B.7 B z j j, z j. F , , .
C - - , 57 j j -. H, j , :
(1) Vsc5b01 ajcncb11 cns1ec,
7
W j q j - j ( 2 Ax A). T j x 13 ( 39 ) V P . B x, j j .
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ajcnc; icjcn3mj Cn Vsc.
A c , - . E - . Vsc c - . W j .ic
jcn q c j
j - . I ,ic
jcn j (.., -
j Sz) j. I c j j - , mj Cn Vscq j j. ajcnc ic
jcn mjCn Vsc. F ec - . O - . T 132 , . T 1,839,024 - 13,932 80 56 .
I , b1 x j j . I , b1 - j c j- . (T b1 b1 j j .)I b1 j j -; .., Sz A B
Sz q A B, j Sz A B.
W x : ( , , ),- x , x , x - , x j . A, 2,402 j .
T -- q , , . C- x j -. T
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x j j . W x - .
T j , , , j- . S, x - j j -. I S III, - x j j, - , .
III. Results
A. t Bsn rs
R (1) T 2 . I q - ajcn, q j j j z . A , -. B j - x ,
ajcn j j . R (1) j j x q 0.105 j . I j j , 0.315 . T 1 .8A , j j (.., , , , )
j , 0.30 (.. 5 0.04 ) , 1 300 ( Ax C).
R (2) T 2 j j . I ajcn j . W B 0.144 j , 0.089 Sz 0.109 MC. T B
8 W . I , ajcn 0.116 (.. 5 0.027). W x ( 50 , 0.27 ).
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62 Sz ( 5 ). T -
q j j ; Sz B q j , Sz 0.07 . I , B j .
R (3) T 2 ajcn dy, q j j . T
ajcn dy x- j j . R 0.037 j j .G 0.049 , j- j .
T 3 x . R (1) T 3 ajcn dy, q j j ajcn, q ajcn dy - j j . R(1) j - j . W ,j 0.00081
Table 2Baseline Results
D Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3)
Aj 0.105*** (0.024)
Aj3 Sz 0.089*** (0.025)
Aj3 B 0.144*** (0.028)Aj3MC 0.109** (0.046)Aj 0.037** (0.009)
O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024
r2 0.8686 0.8687 0.8686
Ns: R , j 3 (152 ), -.ajcnq - j j- j z . Scwzngg,Bsn, mcCnck q j j Sz, B, MC,. O . C x , x ( , H, A, 1824, 65 , ,
$1,000 , , , E f, - R, , D -), x - j Sz,B, MC, ( , , ) -.
*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .
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j . T 1 - .
R (2) T 3 j j j . I j cnc-v j , (2) j sw j . T ajcn dy 3 Ca Vs 0.113 - 1 . M , 0.105 ajcn (1) T 2,
Table 3Robustness Checks and Mechanism
D :Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Aj 0.081*** 0.105*** 0.105***(0.019) (0.024) (0.024)
Aj 0.011**(0.006)
Aj 3 CA 0.113***(0.026)
N j 0.081*** 0.081***(0.022) (0.022)
S j 0.121*** 0.121***(0.034) (0.034)
E j 0.143***(0.046)
W j 0.038***
(0.013)D j 0.004
(0.003)
P j 0.032**(0.015)
Hz j 0.031***(0.009)
Hz j3 0.123**(0.049)
O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024r2 0.8687 0.8786 0.8687 0.8686 0.8687 0.8687
Ns: R , j cny3 sc, . I j j , Ca Vs q j .N, S, es, Ws ajcnq - j , , , j, , z .dgny
ajcn pncc ajcnq - j j (.., , , , j ) j j , .hzny ajcnq - j j z . Cnsng S q z j- j x j .A T 2.
*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .
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j j .
R (3) T 3 j j(, , ). T
j j. 0.143 j , 0.038 j , 0.081 0.121 j , . Wx j j (6). F , (3) j . O j ( z ) . F x-, j , j Sz Sz, Sz. W x , j j. H, j j j . T j j j .
R (4) T 3 x
j j . D j j . R (4) j z j. O 0.004 j 0.105 z j . L - j . B j ,
z j .W x . M j . M j j -. R (5) T 3 x j- x j . T- (13 ) q - x . E . A 2 Ax A. B x , j j j
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x . T , j . V j j
. R (5) , j - x , 0.032 j . T 5 j j .
R (6) T 3 j . I x, : , , , j, , . S 1 Ax A x. I , j j j j . I x, j j . N j q j. A j . I q j . W
z j .9
W hzny ajcnhznyajcn3 Cnsng S. Cnsng S q z j j - x j . W hzny ajcn 0.031 hzny
ajcn3 Cnsng s 0.123, . I j , , ,
j . R (6) x esajcn Ws ajcn (3). F 64 - , x
9 I j . W 0.011 j . W 5 , 10 , . I j -
. W ajcn - j j ( x). T (-: 0.40) - j - .
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j j . F, .O ( ) .
Aj x .
B.dgc Ccscs
T , x -, . T j . B, - . W D B x B j Sz MC.
A , .., , ,., . MTz R P. V H (2003) , - 4 6
10. C , S K M K (2003) .
T , x . T - , ajcn - , Char, .10 I , - . T
, Tech ajcn3 Tech, Tech .
T . F, . F x, x z x, x z x , . S, - z C H. A W. P S (1995) - j
10T Char Char3 cn x cs .
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.11 N, - .
T 4 ajcn ajcn - .
W 1 0.0091 j . T 1 .T ajcn3 pcn Cg Gs 20.0072, . T T 4 j - . H , j 0.328 - . T - j . T D J. Bj, S A. B, JM. S (2006) L M (2007). L M x q , f, . Bj, B, S (2006) x , , .
W , , 1 A 0.0013 j . T - 10 . A H 0.0021 , .M, ajcn3 pcn Bck z, ( ). H H -
, j 0.046 - A . T q j .
C , 1 0.0042 - 1 .P R I
11F x, 60 A 40 - 10 A 90 . T A . I A .
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D ( ). H,
. I , R I D ( , S L 2006). F, . T - R I . T D P , . T x D .
W x j - - : US , , E f, 65, 18 24. W
Table 4Eect o Precinct Demographic Characteristics on Misvoting
5
95
D j
D :Vs5 (/ ) 3 100
Aj 0.8224*** (0.2195)
Aj3 20.0003 (0.0008) 0.00 0.18 20.0054Aj3 H 0.0021 (0.0015) 0.04 0.64 0.1260
Aj3 A 0.0013* (0.0007) 0.01 0.36 0.0455
Aj3 1824 20.0014 (0.0011) 0.03 0.14 20.0154Aj3 65 0.0011* (0.0006) 0.07 0.36 0.0319
Aj3 0.0009** (0.0004) 0.01 0.32 0.0279
Aj3 (K) 20.0003 (0.0006) 12K 55K 20.0129Aj3 HS 20.0091*** (0.0035) 0.24 0.60 20.3276Aj3 20.0072*** (0.0025) 0.12 0.71 20.4248Aj3 R 0.0010 (0.0013) 0.09 0.60 0.0510
Aj3 0.0042*** (0.0016) 0.03 0.21 0.0756
Aj3 I 20.0005 (0.0018) 0.00 0.24 20.0120Aj3 E f 20.0071* (0.0043) 0.01 0.26 20.1775
O 1,839,024r2 0.8690
Ns: R , j 3 , .ajcnq - j j j z . O : pcn g sc s, pcn ncy, pcn
dc. pcn hS gs pcn cg gs (pcn hS gs - ). pcn bck, pcn hsnc, pcn asn - , H, A, ( ). pcn dc, pcn rbcn, pcn y D, R, ; pcn innn. I
$1,000 . pcn n vy . pcn ckng engs fncy f E.pcn g 65 s pcn g 18 24 65 18 24, . C Techajcnc3Tech, Tech 11 . A T 2.
*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .
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x . W 65 E f. W -
.S T 4 , , - ( , S L 2006). T - M S (2001), C . (2004), T Bz (2004), , - , . I , S A . (2007), .
T , Sz MC, B j. I q , B 62 Sz 32 MC. U -, j -
j .12
W , Sz MC, B . D j x - .13
C. Vng tcngy
N x - , . T
, -, . B . (2001) z
12 W -. T j ( j ) j . A j j , B 24 Sz 14 MC. T, 38 B Sz 42
B MC.13 O x . S
, , , Sz, B, MC q j . T , B . T, x j .
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. O , 2 - . U - 2000 US P E, B . . Az . (2001)
B .M j -. D (2007) , .., j j .D , , 0.04 -, - . Wx D - j z j j . W x D x - (.., ) - . F, - . T f .
T j , ajcn Tech - . W Tech . B , - , , . B -
, , .., D AV-TS . F , Ax B. I , ajcn3 Char, Char - . T - - .
R (1) T 5 - j . O 0.202
j 0.109 0.068 -, . F, ajcn3 pnc C ajcn3 oc Scn ajcn3 tcScn 1 . T j .14 T
14 T j , T 5, j -
. S j , . T 0.325 (.. 5 0.036) , 0.273 (.. 5 0.049) , 0.211 (..5 0.056) .T, , .
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(.., Az . 2001 B . 2001) .
R (2) (3) T 5 . I (2), - . R (3) - j
Table 5Interactions with Voting Technology
D :
Vs5 (/ ) 3 100 (1) (2) (3) (4)
Aj3 0.202*** 0.198*** 0.202***(0.024) (0.027) (0.026)
Aj3 0.109*** 0.101*** 0.114***(0.024) (0.027) (0.026)
Aj3 0.068*** 0.065*** 0.079***(0.019) (0.020) (0.021)
Aj3 D A-V-OS 0.171***(0.041)
Aj3 ES&S 550 O 0.083***(0.023)
Aj3 ES&S O E 0.110***(0.033)
Aj3 H B N 0.067***
(0.017)Aj3 M-A-V 0.079**
(0.032)
Aj3 Sq O 0.095***(0.024)
Aj3 D AV-TS 0.007(0.040)
Aj3 Sq E 0.096***(0.018)
Aj3 D 0.096***(0.033)
Aj3 P 0.242***(0.032)
Aj3 V 0.213***(0.022)
D Y N Y Y
Aj5 Aj 3 CA N N Y N
O 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024 1,839,024r2 0.8689 0.8688 0.8689 0.8690
Ns: R , j 3 , . I - (1), (2), (4)ajcnq - j j j z . I (3), ajcnq - j j j z -. C . D
ajcnc3Char, Char - , H, A, 1824, 65 , , , , , E f, R, , ( D ). A - . A T 2.
*** S 1 .** S 5 .* S 10 .
Optical
Touch
Punch
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- ajcn5 iajcn3mj Cn V S. T j - j - , . I
(2) (3), (1).R (4) T 5 j . E - . E : , , . R (4) , , , x: D A-V-OS - , D ,15 D AV-TS - . I , (2) (3) . H, - (4).
I , K K (2002), PG E S (2005), D C E M (2007) H
. M, j . C - .
D.acns n exnsns
W j ,
. N , , . T - 1880, 1884, 1960, 2000 -q .16 R, 2004 W , 2000W , 1998 N , 2002 S D - .
15 T D ( q x ). T, D
. I, - .
16O E C. F j US, E C. I , q .
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Mj - .
H, C j . T 135
. T - j . T j - . F x, 72 2004 , j 10 . E , , 30 .17Y, C . B j , x . F x, D ES&S, j US , x .T j C .
F j j j C. U C, . R, j ,
. T j j - j . I , j j , x j .
IV. Conclusion
T x j . W
j - .
W j - 2003 C - . B - , x j j . T x j . W j j 0.30
17D W .
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. M ,, - , - w . W , ,
-. E w , w, - .
A . A . I C -, w w D B. T w, R Sw, B 62 . A , , 2000 W 2004. T, - w , .
Appendix A: Sample Ballots
Ballot 1T w w -
A C. T - w. C Sw,
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, . B , Sw - R P, Sw , Sw
.
Ballot 2
T w w - S C. M B - w. V - . E . T - .
Ballot 3
T w w - R C. T w. V
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. A k . T w w k w - . M G Sw w Sw . Hw,Sw Sw k.
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Appendix B: Summary Statistics
Table B1Precinct Level Data
V M S
S T 850.10 580.50P 0.05 0.35P A Sw 48.41 16.97P C B 31.64 17.61P T MCk 13.49 4.74P w D 37.12 48.31P w R 30.30 45.96P w 8.33 27.64P w 24.24 42.85P 18 24 8.08 4.93P 65 19.14 10.96
C
P w 68.58 19.44P k 4.84 8.83P A 10.36 11.47P H 21.92 19.08P k E 7.64 8.46M ($1,000 ) 27.97 14.03P w C 10.98 10.55P ( ) 43.61 10.89P 39.40 18.04
O 1,839,024P 13,932
nes: O - . O -
. M w .
Table B2Identification of Adjacent Candidates
Fq V
TSw
B
MCk
N
N 93.7 96.8 94.2 3S 91.3 96.1 92.7 3E 35.6 39.0 35.5 25W 23.6 26.6 15.4 20
P 9.0 9.0 9.0 18
nes: W q, w .T w .
P w .
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Appendix C: Calculation of the Number of Misvotes
R , Vesaepc5b01b13 Icajace1 cls1epc,
-. L Ic
ajace :
1I AS ajace, Is AS ajace, Ieas AS ajace, Iwes AS ajace,I CB ajace, Is CB ajace, Ieas CB ajace, Iwes CB ajace,
I tm ajace, Is tm ajace, Ieas tm ajace, Iwes tm ajace2 .
B - , w q w, , Sw. T w q q. L F q
1F AS ajace, Fs AS ajace, Feas AS ajace, Fwes AS ajace,F CB ajace, Fs CB ajace, Feas CB ajace, Fwes CB ajace,
F tm ajace
, Fs tm ajace
, Feas tm ajace
, Fwes tm ajace
2 .
F , F AS ajace Sw, w . I , Sw - ( Sw ) (Sw ). S F , F w . O k F w q q. SA B q .
Ib1 , - q b1F. A b1F q 0.30 w 0.04. T, 0.30 2003 C .
Table B3Voting Technology
T T P U 2005
D A-V-OS 12.3 YES&S 550 O 5.4 NES&S O E 5.1 Y
H B Nw 10.6 YMk-A-V 4.3 YSq O 5.7 YD AV-TS 5.3 YSq E 6.1 YD 5.9 YP 9.0 NV 30.3 N
nes: P w . W , w . B w Y w w 2005.
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256 AmErICAn EConomIC JournAL: EConomIC PoLICy FEBruAry 2009
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