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Who Wants to be a Who Wants to be a Statistician?Statistician?

Goldsmiths' CompanyGoldsmiths' Company Mathematics Course 2011 Mathematics Course 2011

Dr Ben Parker

Research in Statistics at QM

Design and analysis of Experiments

e.g. Clinical trials

Design of Industrial Experiments

Agricultural Experiments

Pharmokinetics

General statistical theory, including Bayesian analysis and Sampling theory

My research and background

PhD in Designing Experiments for Communications Networks; i.e. how do we measure the Internet?

A/S Level Statistics → BA Mathematics → Msc Applied Statistics->PhD Statistics

But I didn't enjoy it until quite late on in the process!

What should we be teaching?

Statistics must be exciting, not about “turning the handle” on a normal distribution.

What should we be teaching?

Statistics should be about a way of thinking. It should be a way of looking critically look at the world, and quantitatively assessing it.

It should be an easy way of making mathematics relevant, to life not something which is taught as an afterthought or easy option.

So let's play “Who Wants to Be a Statistician?”

Question 1

A manufacture of shampoo claims that 82% of its customers love it, in a survey of 282

respondents. What percentage of people dislike it?

A 18%B 50%C Survey not big enoughD Survey not valid.

A manufacture of shampoo claims that 82% of it's customers love it, in a survey of 282

respondents. What percentage of people dislike it?

A 18%B 50%C Survey not big enoughD Survey not valid.

Question 2

Mean global temperatures are much higher than they have ever

been.

A TrueB FalseC Not enough dataD We can't be sure

Mean global temperatures are much higher than they have ever been.

A TrueB FalseC Not enough dataD We can't be sure

Question 3

The average lifespan of a person in the UK is 79 years. If Francis Wright is 17,

how long can he expect to live for?

A 79 yearsB More than 79 yearsC Less than 79 yearsD Forever and ever

Question 4

What is the probability that the next person to enter the room will have an above average

number of ears?

A 1/2B Nearly 1C 0D Nearly 0

What is the probability that the next person to enter the room will have an above average

number of ears?

A ½B Nearly 1C 0D Nearly 0

Question 5

In 1911, cancer was the fourth biggest cause of death. In 2003, it is the second

biggest. Cases of cancer have

A RisenB FallenC Stayed the sameD Impossible to tell.

Question 6

A recent survey showed that women had, on average, married more times

than men. Are women...

A More romanticB Longer LivedC Less romantic

D Impossible to say

A recent survey showed that women had on average, married more times

than men. Are women...

A More romanticB Longer LivedC Less romantic

D Impossible to say

Question 7

Studies have shown that those who drink red wine live on average three years longer. If I

give Francis Wright a glass of red wine daily, will this make him go on longer?

A YesB NoC Impossible to sayD He drinks too much already!

•AGE http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-449783/Women-birth-age-30-double-risk-breast-cancer.html

•AIR POLLUTION http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-358875/Pollution-cars-linked-child-cancer.html

•AIR TRAVEL http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-200443/Frequent-fliers-raise-cancer-risk.html and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-591109/Cancer-risk-frequent-fliers.html

•ALCOHOL http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-147083/Drink-day-increases-breast-cancer-risk.html and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-471910/Bowel-cancer-danger-just-glass-wine-day.html

•ALLERGIES http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-324732/Child-allergies-raise-cancer-risk.html

•ARTIFICIAL FLAVOURS http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-55023/Cancer-causing-chemicals-soy-sauce.html

•ARTIFICIAL LIGHT http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-391267/Artificial-light-increases-breast-cancer-risk.html

•ASBESTOS (as if it wasn’t bad enough already) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1170584/Asbestos-schools-kill-pupils-warns-teacher-dying-lung-cancer.html

•ASPIRIN http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-205490/Asprin-link-cancer-risk.html

•BABIES http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-157683/Birth-size-link-breast-cancer.html

•BABY BOTTLES http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1038697/EU-rejects-ban-baby-bottles-linked-early-puberty-breast-cancer-miscarriage-infertility.html

• BABY FOOD http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-199887/Baby-food-cancer-alert.html

• BACON http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1102368/Additives-used-bacon-ham-chicken-make-cancers-grow.html

•BARBEQUES http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-326153/Australians-warned-backyard-cancer-risk.html

•BATH WATER http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-431777/Chlorine-bathwater-linked-cancer.html

•BEEF http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-393666/Alarm-beef-link-breast-cancer.html

•BEER http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1161843/Just-pint-beer-day-raise-risk-prostate-cancer.html

•BEING A BLACK PERSON http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1064547/Black-men-times-likely-prostate-cancer.html and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-508753/Black-women-develop-breast-cancer-decades-earlier-white-women.html

•BEING A WOMAN http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-63976/Cancer-risk-higher-women-smokers.html

•BEING A MAN http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-306543/Men-twice-likely-die-cancer-women.html

•BEING A SKINNY GIRL http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1266092/Skinny-girls-greater-risk-developing-breast-cancer.html

•BEING SOUTHERN http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1027331/Why-affluent-women-South-likely-die-breast-cancer.html

•BISCUITS http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-126342/Cancer-foods-avoid.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1102368/Additives-used-bacon-ham-chicken-make-cancers-grow.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-306543/Men-twice-likely-die-cancer-women.html

Question 8

What is the probability that two of the people in this room share a birthday?

A A halfB Nearly zeroC Nearly OneD 2/365

Question 8(Much easier)

There are 2 (randomly chosen) people in a room. What is the chance that their birthday is April 17th?

A ZeroB 1/365C Approx 1/133,000D 2/365

Question 8(Slightly easier)

There are 2 (randomly chosen) people in a room. What is the chance that they share a birthday?

A ZeroB 1/365C Approx 1/133,000D 2/365

Question 9Facebook Friends

I pick a friend of mine on Facebook at random. This friend is likely to have:

A Fewer friends than meB More friends than meC The same number of friends.

D It's impossible to tell.

Question 10The Games Round

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ae/Prisoners_and_hats.PNG

Score as many points as you can!

Result: A,A A,B B,A B,B

Score: 10,10 0,20 20,0 0,0

Question 11The Random Cinema

There are 100 seats in the cinema. The first person who enters the cinema has lost his ticket, and takes a

seat at random. The remaining 99 people will sit in their seat if available, and if not choose a random seat. What is the probability that the last person finds his ticketed

seat free?

A 1/100B 1/2C 99/100D It's impossible to tell.

Can a

There are 100 seats in the cinema. The first person who enters the cinema has lost his ticket, and takes a

seat at random. The remaining 99 people will sit in their seat if available, and if not choose a random seat. What is the probability that the last person finds his ticketed

seat free?

A 1/100B 1/2C 99/100D It's impossible to tell.

Question 12Monty Hall

What is the best thing to do?

A SwitchB Do not switch.C Toss a coin.D It makes no difference

Question 13

“I have two children, one of whom is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability that the other

child is a boy?”

A 1/2B 1/4C 13/27D Impossible to say

Question 14

A man walks drunkenly. At any one second, he moves left one step, or right one step, with equal probability. What are the chances he gets back to

where he started eventually?

A 1/2B 3/4C Nearly one.D One.

Question 15

A man enters a casino with 50 pounds. Every game of roulette he plays, he wins a pound with

probability 18/37, and loses with probability 19/37. He stops when he wins either 100 pounds, or when

he has no money left. What is the probability he leaves with nothing?

A 1/2B 3/4C Nearly one.D Nearly zero.

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