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Why Does Fertility Remain High Among Certain Ethnic
Minority Women in the UK, France and Belgium?
Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool, UK
Tina Hannemann, University of Liverpool, UK
Ariane Pailhé, Institut national d'études démographiques, France
Karel Neels, University of Antverp
Research project supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme
(grant no. 320116)
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Rationale
• Increasing diversity of European societies
• Understanding dynamics of migrant and ethnic
minority families
• Immigrants shape demographic, social and
cultural trends
• Family patterns provide valuable information
on immigrant lives and their integration
• Raising social cohesion
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Previous Research
• Fertility levels in Europe are high among
immigrants from ‘high-fertility’ countries (Sobotka
2008)
• Fertility levels of the descendants of immigrants
from ‘high-fertility’ countries are usually lower than
those of their parents
• But for some groups fertility remains high, e.g.
Pakistanis and Bangladeshis in the UK; individuals
of Turkish descent in Germany; Turkish and North
Africans in France (Sobotka 2008; Coleman and
Dubuc 2010)
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Causes of High Fertility
• Large families continue to be a norm among some
ethnic minorities
• High fertility is the consequence of poor education
and labour market prospects among ethnic
minorities
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Objectives
• Investigate fertility patterns among the
descendants of immigrants in selected European
countries
• Examine the determinants of the relatively high
fertility among certain ethnic minority groups
• The UK case study
• Comparative study of Britain, France and
Belgium
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Data
• Britain
• Understanding Society study (UoS); first two waves
(2009, 2011)
• France
• Trajectories and Origins survey (2008)
• Belgium
• Population Census and Register (2000-2005)
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Sample
• Sample: Women born between 1940 and 1990
• The number of women:
Country Number
United Kingdom 21,680
France 8,234
Belgium ~20,000
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The British Case Study
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Total Fertility Rate Among Ethnic Minorities in Britain,
1989-2008
Source: Understanding Society, 2011
1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.7
Caribbean countries
Bangladesh
Pakistan
India
Europe
Caribbean countries
Pakistan and Bangladesh
India
Europe
British natives
Imm
igra
nts
Des
cen
dan
ts o
f Im
mig
ran
ts
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Steps for Analysis
• Step 1: Calculate fertility rates by birth order (first
four transitions) – investigate the sources of fertility
variation across ethnic groups
• Step 2: Calculate fertility rates by birth order
controlling for socio-economic characteristics of
women – detect the role of economic factors
• Step 3: Calculate fertility rates by birth order
controlling (also) for socio-cultural characteristics
of women – detect the role of cultural factors
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Proportion of Women Having a First Child
Data: Understanding Society
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Proportion of Women Having a Second Child
Data: Understanding Society
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Proportion of Women Having a Third Child
Data: Understanding Society
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Relative Rates of First Birth
Model 1: Controlled for the women’s age and birth cohort
Model 2: Controlled for the women’s age, birth cohort and educational level
Model 3: Controlled for the women’s age, birth cohort, educational level, English skills,
religiosity, the number of siblings
Data: Understanding Society
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Pakistan
Ban
gladesh
Pak an
d B
angl
Native Immigrants Descendants of Immigrants
Re
lati
ve R
ate
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Relative Rates of Third Birth
Model 1: Controlled for time since second birth and birth cohort
Model 2: Controlled for time since second birth, birth cohort, age at first birth, educational level
Model 3: Controlled for time since second birth, birth cohort, age at first birth, educational level,
English skills, religiosity, the number of siblings, sex of previous child
Data: Understanding Society
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Pakistan
Ban
gladesh
Pak an
d B
angl
Native Immigrants Descendants of Immigrants
Re
lati
ve R
ate
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Comparative Study
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Relative Rates of Third Birth
Controlled for time since second birth and birth cohort
Source: Kulu et al. 2015
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Native
2G
Euro
pe &
West
2G
Ind
ia
2G
Pakistan
& B
anglad
esh
2G
Carrib
ean
Native
2G
Magh
reb
2G
Sub
-Saharan
Africa
2G
Turkey
2G
Sou
thern
Euro
pe
Native
2G
Italy
2G
Mo
rocco
2G
Turkey
United Kingdom France Belgium
Country and Migrant group
RR
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Relative Rates of Third Birth
Controlled for time since second birth, birth cohort and educational level
Source: Kulu et al. 2015
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Native
2G
Euro
pe &
West
2G
Ind
ia
2G
Pakistan
& B
anglad
esh
2G
Carrib
ean
Native
2G
Magh
reb
2G
Sub
-Saharan
Africa
2G
Turkey
2G
Sou
thern
Euro
pe
Native
2G
Italy
2G
Mo
rocco
2G
Turkey
United Kingdom France Belgium
Country and Migrant group
RR
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Summary
• Relatively high fertility among some ethnic minority groups
in the UK (women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin)
• High second-, third- and fourth-birth levels are responsible
for the high total fertility among women of Pakistani and
Bangladeshi origin
• Socio-cultural factors (the number of siblings and
religiosity) account for some elevated fertility among UK-
born ethnic minorities, whereas the role of education is
negligible
• Similar childbearing patterns for some ethnic minority
groups in France, Belgium and the UK (women of Turkish
origin in France and Belgium; those of Pakistani and
Bangladeshi descent in the UK)
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Why Does Fertility Remain High Among Certain Ethnic
Minority Women in the UK, France and Belgium?
Hill Kulu, University of Liverpool, UK
Tina Hannemann, University of Liverpool, UK
Ariane Pailhé, Institut national d'études démographiques, France
Karel Neels, University of Antverp
Research project supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme
(grant no. 320116)