why invest in early grade reading? - education links
TRANSCRIPT
10/20/2017 1
New Evidence on the Impacts of Reading/Literacy: A
Discussion with the Members of the GRN Community
of Practice
Oct 13, 2017
Luis Crouch
RTI International
Why Invest in Early Grade
Reading?
10/20/2017 2
Background
• Based on research paper and policy brief funded by USAID
via All Children Reading-Asia activity, with some added
material
• Purpose: evidence on why investments in EGR create a
mutual benefit relationship between individuals and
societies both in donor and recipient country
• Provide explicit emphasis on the how these investments
will benefit U.S. economy and national security
Outline
2. What are the “channels” whereby this works?
1. How important is education and literacy to countries’
potential as trade partners? To countries’ political and
social stability? To migration and labor relationships?
4. Do children and youth in US partner countries have the
literacy skills required to be good partners in trade and
political stability?
3. Why does it help to invest early?
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Introduction
• Interconnections exist between education, human capital,
individual skills, economy, and social progress.
• Recent investments by USAID focus on improving literacy
in the early grades due to impact it can have on individuals’
livelihoods and societal progress
• Our definition of literacy is not dichotomous (literate vs.
illiterate) but literacy as a functional ability and skill
– Cumulative skills learned over time
– Allows a reader to do something as a result of his/her
ability (e.g. achieve one’s goals or develop other
knowledge and potential)
Sources: OECD, 2002; Roskos et al, 2009
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Next 3 slides methodology
• Sort countries by years of education
• Group worst-, middle-, and most-educated partners
• See the trade, migration, and stability levels for the
three groups
• Causality????
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200
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1600
1800
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Per
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m U
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e co
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s in
20
15
$
Avg
. ye
ars
of
ed.
of
po
pu
lati
on
Countries' education and imports from US in 3 groups of countries by ed level
Years of education of the countries Imports from US into the countries
Nige, MozMali, Sene
Thai, Uru,Boli, Gabo
Irel, Kore, Esto, UK
Sources: WB Barro-Lee, US Dept of Commerce
5.4
8.8
12.1
46%50%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Per
cen
t o
f im
mig
rati
on
ski
lled
Avg
. ye
ars
of
ed.
of
po
pu
lati
on
Yrs of ed and skilled immigration to US(of countries sending > 100,000)
Years of education of the countries Proportion of immigrants highly skilled
Guat, Pak,Hait, Hond
Phi l , Guya,Peru, Col
Japa, Kor,
UK, Canada
8
Sources: WB Barro-Lee, US Dept of Commerce
3.0
8.5
12.5
0.05
1.20
1.95
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
WB
in
dex
of
po
l sta
b (r
e-b
ase
d)
Avg
yrs
ed
of
po
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on
Political stability and education levels
Years of education of population WB Index of political stability
Nige, Moz, Mali, Sene
Boli, Gabo, Phil, Qata
Kore, Esto, UK, Cana
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Sources: WB Barro-Lee, WB Index of Political Stability
10/20/2017 10
Can one “standardize” these effects?
Concept Step of change Standardized effect
Imports from US into the countries
Low ed. to medium ed. 0.4
Medium ed. to higher ed. 1.2
Skilled migration into the US
Low ed. to medium ed. 0.2
Medium ed. to higher ed. 0.8
Political stability
Low ed. to medium ed. 1.1
Medium ed. to higher ed. 0.7
Benchmarks: Medium 0.5, Large 0.8, Very large 1.2
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How does this actually happen?
• Education makes you richer because it makes you more
productive
• Richer people are better trade partners
• Countries with more education seem to send more educated
migrants, even disproportionately so; relatively few unskilled folks
from skilled countries come to US.
• Educated people tend to have more stake in stability; they are
more conservative because there is more to conserve; they are
also able to demand and negotiate gov’t accountability
Returns to Education: “Education makes you richer”
• Each additional year of
completed education
yields about a 10%
increase in wages, on
average, across
economies.
– Returns higher women >
men
– Decrease in returns to
years of schooling over the
last few decades
– Returns are higher (and
remain in high, in general) in
developing countries where
school attainment levels
tend to be low
13
Source: Montenegro & Patrinos, 2014
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%
Tertiary education
(N=762)
Secondary education
(N=619)
Primary education
(N=547)
Average across all levels
(N=819)
Returns to Schooling
Average
Payoffs of Cognitive Skills
14
Sources: Hanuskek et al., 2013; Valerio et al., 2016
• Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIACC)
– Collects data in OECD economies using measures of literacy, numeracy, and problem solving
– Data shows positive and independent associations of each skill with higher wages and probability of being employed
• Skills towards Employability and Productivity (STEP)
– Measures cognitive skills through direct literacy assessments in low and middle-income countries
– Increase in1standard deviation in literacy skills results in about 15% increase in an individual’s hourly earnings in Vietnam
– Effects are highest for the lowest income economies in the sample
Is this causal?
• Not all: much is largely causal
– But some is only correlational
• Not many RCTs for complex societal effects like these!
• But some
• And take advantage of natural randomization
• Finally, “it is all of a whole”
– Causation is in “virtuous” and “vicious” cycles and feedback loops
– Education is part of it—a big part, but only part of it
– See next slide
15 CONFIDENTIAL
Education Productivity Income
Demand and
affordability
of education
Skilled
labor and
citizenry
Skilled birth
attendants
Lower
infant
mortality
Smaller
number of
children per
family
Skills to
demand and
supply
accountability
Quality of
education
Improved
governance
Improved
investment
climate
Increased
physical
investment
Increased
affordability of
specialized
goods,
propensity to
trade
Demand
and supply
of trade
Societal Effects of Increased Literacy
• Correlations between education and societal development happen in parallel and tend to be mutually supportive
• Gains from increased literacy extend far beyond the individual level and have significant effects on many aspects of society
• Nepal: Longitudinal study found women with higher literacy and participation in basic ed has an impact on ability to contribute to political affairs and school/community issues around children’s wellbeing
• Rwanda: National village-level data on education and literacy showed enhanced literacy levels were associated with lower likelihood of participation in violence during the genocide
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Sources: Burchfield, Hal, Baral, & Rocha, 2002; Yanagizawa-Drott, 2012
10/20/2017 FOOTER GOES HERE 19
Why early?
• Previous slides cast in terms of total years of education
• So, why early?
• Education is extremely path-dependent
– What happens early makes possible, or precludes, what
happens later
– Knowledge/skills build on knowledge/skills
– “Matthew Effects”
• Fixing problems later is 4X more expensive than preventing
them early
Grade in years and months (thus 1. is 6 months into Grade 1)
6
Data from the US
Children below a certain level by
the end of Grade 1, stay behind
forever, and the gap widens
And, if they cannot read, they fall
behind in everything else
Wo
rds p
er
min
ute
Good, Simmons, Smith (1998) 20
Why early? Matthew Effects in Reading
21
Why early? Matthew effects in developing countries too
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
2nd gradeachvmt
Girl HH wealth Mother ed Teacherexp
Schoolsupplies
School infra
10/20/2017 FOOTER GOES HERE 22
Matthew Effects Other Languages/Settings?
• Some literature, yes (see reference list), for Dutch, German,
Swedish, maybe not so in Greek (but probably methodology
differences more than language differences)
• Also quasi-longitudinal evidence from pilots and demonstration
projects (see next slide)
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Some interesting experiences from demonstration projects in Asia
Vietnam
Some countries, such as Vietnam: so
efficient and equalizing that it is
hard even for a very effective NGO
to improve on the comparison
schools. In other cases, yes. In those
cases, likely there is an underlying
Matthew effect that could be
ameliorated if the country adopted
the NGO’s practices.
Source: Room to Read Global Monitoring Reports 2014 and 2015
0
20
40
60
80
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5TIMSS Proficiency Level
Percentage of Students by TIMSS Proficiency Level
(countries’ order of entry into slide from low to high average proficiency)
Countries make most progress by eliminating pockets of low perf.
Download of TIMSS Data
Do children in partner countries have
literacy skills for participation in further
education and workforce?
10/20/2017 25
10/20/2017 26
Sector Growth Trajectory
Reading Comprehension
ImportanceFarming, Fishing, and Forestry India (-) ASEAN (-) 14
Manufacturing and Production India (-) ASEAN (-) 11
Services 7
- Business and Financial
Operations
India (=) ASEAN (+) 3
- Architecture and Engineering India (+) 3
- Legal ASEAN (+) 3
- Life, Physical, and Social
Sciences
3
- Computer and Mathematical India (+) 4
- Education and Training India (+) 4
- Office and Administrative India (-) 4
-- Management India (+) 5
-- Healthcare 5
- Community, Social, and
Protective Services
6
- Sales and Related India (=) ASEAN (+) 7
- Arts, Design, Entertainment,
Sports, & Media
India (-) 7
- Transportation and Logistics India (+) ASEAN (+) 12
- Installation and Maintenance India (+) 13
- Hospitality and Food 14
- Construction and Extraction 14
Reading comprehension is key to growing sectors…
Using India and ASEAN as cases in point
• This
• is
• how
• most
• 3rd-grade kids
• in
• potential partnercountries
• read, at best
•
• This
• is
• how
• most
• 3rd-grade kids
• in
• rich countries (OECD)
• read
•
Yet, using hard data on reading, this is the reality…
10/20/2017 28
In Asia, better, reading more fluently, but reading what exactly?
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.53.0
3.54.0
4.5
5.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Avera
ge c
om
pre
hen
sio
n s
co
re
(ou
t o
f 5)
Perc
en
tage o
f G
rad
e 3
Filip
ino
stu
den
ts
Correct words per minute read
English fluency Filipino fluency English comp Filipino comp
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And, when averages are not too bad, regional variation is big
47%56%
42%33%
23%
26%25%
28%
29%
27%
21%17%
24%27%
28%
6% 3% 5%12%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
National Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan-Sulawesi MNP
Reading fluently with comprehension Reading with comprehension
Reading with limited comprehension Nonreader
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Literacy skills in potential partner countries
• Many countries remain only as potential partners: lack of the most fundamental skills (e.g., sheer fluency in early grades) is barrier
• Reading ability in early years is predictive of reading outcomes in later years. That is, early readers are in a better position to use their reading ability to learn and prepare themselves for the world of work.
• Countries make most progress by reducing proportion of population with the lowest levels of skills.
• Where partners have made some progress with basics (mostly Asia), still not reading with comprehension First, literacy is not synonymous with reading fluency.
• Even in Asia, significant proportion of population does not meet the requisite skills for basic jobs in the region.
• Though most individuals assessed and interviewed through the STEP Skills initiative (WB) claimed that their jobs required them to read frequently, many respondents did not pass the core reading component of the assessment.
Policy implications
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1. Investment in early literacy is key to educational
development.
2. Educational development aligns with key aims: political
stability, trade, growth.
3. But many countries lag in ability to partner because of lack
of education and especially foundational skills in reading.
4. US has track record in addressing these early literacy
issues—more so than any other bilateral development
agency—through USAID’s experience.
5. But literacy has not been achieved even though the
evidence on how to do it is clear.
6. The time to invest is now.
References
Burchfield, S., Hau, H., Baral, D., & Rocha, V. (2002). A longitudinal study of the effect of integrated and basic education programs on women’s participation in social and economic development in Nepal. Funded by the United States Agency for International Development and the Office of Women in Development. New York: World Education, Inc.
Hanushek, E., Schwerdt, G., Wiederhold, S., & Woessmann, L. (2013). Returns to skills from around the world: Evidence from PIAAC. National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: NBER.
Montenegro, C., & Patrinos, H. (2014). Comparable estimates to the returns of schooling around the world. Policy Research Working Paper 7020. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, Education Global Practice Group. Retrieved from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/830831468147839247/Comparable-estimates-of-returns-to-schooling-around- the-world
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2002). Education at a Glance. From the Glossary of Statistical Terms. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Roskos, K., D. Strickland, J. Haase, & S. Malik. (2009). First principles for early grades reading programs in developing countries. Prepared for USAID/EQUIP1 Project. Retrieved from: http://www.equip123.net/docs/e1-EarlyGradesToolkit.pdf
Valerio, A., Puerta, M., Tognatta, N., & Taborda, S. M. (2016). Are there skills payoffs in low- and middle-Income countries? Empirical evidence using STEP data. Policy Research Working Paper 7879. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, Education Global Practice Group. Retrieved from: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-7879
Yanagizawa-Drott, D. (2012). Propaganda and conflict: Theory and evidence from the Rwandan genocide. CID Working Paper No. 257. Harvard University: Center for International Development.
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References on Matthew Effects
Dutch yes: Janwillem, B. and P. Reitsma. 1998. "Analyzing the Development of Individual
Differences in Terms of Matthew Effects in Reading: Results From a Dutch Longitudinal
Study." Developmental Psychology.Vol. 34, No. 6, 1373-1399.
German yes: Pfost, M., D. Tobias and C. Artelt. 2011. "Reading competence development of
poor readers in a German elementary school sample: an empirical examination of the
Matthew effect model." Journal of Research in Reading. Volume 35, Issue 4, 2012, pp 411–
426.
Greek somewhat dissenting view: Protopapas, A. R. Parrila, P.Simos. 2016. "In Search of
Matthew Effects in Reading.“ Journal of Learning Disabilities. Vol. 49(5) 499–514.
Swedish yes: Kempe, C. and A. Eriksson-Gustavsson. 2011. "Are There any Matthew Effects in
Literacy and Cognitive Development?" Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research. Vol. 55,
No. 2, April 2011, 181–196.
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