Why is Japan in Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model?

Background information • Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to

the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south.

• The characters that make up Japan's name mean "sun-origin", which is why Japan is sometimes referred to as the "Land of the Rising Sun".

• Japans population recorded in 2012 was 127.6 million. • For March 2012 the population estimate was 127,650,000 making it the

world's tenth most populated country.

Statistics • Birth rate – 8• Death rate – 10• Population total – 127.6 million • Natural Increase – 0.2%• Infant Mortality – 2.2• Total fertility rate – 1.4• Age structure – under 15: 13% 65+ :25%• Life expectancy – 83• Sanitation – Urban : 100 Rural : 100• GDP growth – 5%• % using Contraception – 54%

Graph to show how birth rate and death rate has changed overtime in Japan

Stage 5 • At stage 5, birth rate falls below death rate

• There are 7 categories that explain Japan’s position in the DTM

• NBR (national bureau of Asian research) reports that Japan’s population is to fall from 128 million people in 2007 to 95 million in 2050. That’s a decline of 33 million persons over a 43 year period.

Economic • There is a vicious cycle of economic difficulty and falling birth rates as men are

increasingly taking lower-wage informal jobs (thereby not able to support larger families), a more quickly declining working population (compared to the population at-large), and always-low immigration rates.

• Children aren't necessary in retirement as pensions are provided and other retirement plans for people, not to mention physical places, like assisted living homes who employ staff who are paid to take care of you.

• In terms of energy, the NBR examined the impact of the ban on nuclear energy and creatively noted that a declining population will likely result in lower energy consumption – forcing Japanese utilities to look abroad to diversify.

Social and Cultural • Women are becoming more focused on their jobs and put off marrying till a later

date whereby they may be unable to reproduce, furthermore they would have a larger income as they would not have the economic burden of a child therefore they would have ample money to take care of themselves in old age thus adding to the declining death rate

• Improved preventative testing e.g. for cancer so people can be treated before it kills them

• the high rate of development makes the families feel the need to work harder - thus making it harder for them to get the time needed on planning to 'expand' their family. They tend to use contraceptives because of their awareness on family planning. widely available contraceptives in developed countries (such as Japan) also the reason why people do not want to get children. they also know the family economic limitation so they prefer to keep their family small. This is also a demographic factor.

Political• The Japanese myth of racial homogeneity is deep-rooted, insular and very

protective. The Japanese look at societies, such as the United States and Britain, where immigrants have settled in large numbers, and see fractured societies in which an ill-treated caste of foreign labour fill low-paid jobs. For many, it is not an appealing vision of their own future.

• That's why the population is declining. It is because the government doesn’t allow immigration.

• A scheme introduced by the Japanese government is to encourage women to have more babies. Small bribes are on offer. Child benefit paid to families is modestly pro-natalist. Local encouragement is also available. In the town of Yamatsuri, parents receive $4,600 (£3,264) for the birth of a child, with an additional $460 a year for ten years. This is a very little amount considering the cost to bring up a child is £100,000. From whatever source, state cash for parents remains pal try. It is more a symbolic sign of goodwill than a serious form of practical help.

Environmental • More environmental awareness and an understanding of pressure on resources

• The rural areas in Japan have the highest life expectancy in the world as a result of the active lifestyle foreseen in the rural areas, therefore influencing the ageing population and resulting in a decline in death rate.

• People may be reluctant to bring up their children in certain areas of Japan because of the nuclear explosion that happened in Fukashima after a leak in 2011 and so hypothetically they do not want their children to be at risk from the nuclear radiation.

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Demographic • Shifting societies normalities and values, women are becoming more empowered

and allowed to pursue a successful career.

• the high rate of development makes the families feel the need to work harder - thus making it harder for them to get the time needed on planning to 'expand' their family. they tend to use contraceptives because of their awareness on family planning. widely available contraceptives in developed countries (such as Japan) also the reason why people do not want to get children. they also know the family economic limitation so they prefer to keep their family small.

Religious • The predominant religion in Japan is Buddhism.

• Japanese Buddhists have had to make significant efforts to reconcile abortion with their religion, as abortion is very common in Japan, and has been used as a form of birth control. This may be an impact of the declining birth rate.

• Some followers of Japanese Buddhism who have had an abortion make offerings to Jizo, the god of lost travellers and children. They believe that Jizo will steward the child until it is reborn in another incarnation. Therefore the Japanese citizens believe that abortion is acceptable, thus reflected in the declining birth rate.