why japan now? keith donaldson director, japan. where did it all go wrong? source: datastream. as at...

21
WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan

Post on 20-Dec-2015

215 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

WHY JAPAN NOW?Keith DonaldsonDirector, Japan

Page 2: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG?

Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.

MSCI Japan

MSCI World

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

100

200

300

400

500

600

Page 3: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

14 year bear market

Page 4: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

14 year bear market

Bankingcrisis

Page 5: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

14 year bear market

Deflation

Page 6: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

14 year bear market

Unwind

Page 7: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

14 year bear market

Income correction

Page 8: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

THEN AND NOWPost bubble problems

*Source: Japan Real Estate Institute. As at 30 November 2005. ** Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.

CORNER TURNED IN 2003Land price*

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Mar-

91

Mar-

92

Mar-

93

Mar-

94

Mar-

95

Mar-

96

Mar-

97

Mar-

98

Mar-

99

Mar-

00

Mar-

01

Mar-

02

Mar-

03

Mar-

04

Mar-

05

Bank sector performance**

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

1600

Topix Banks

Topix1400

1200

1000

800

400

600

200

Page 9: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.

THEN AND NOWPrice deflation is the bear

INFLATIO

N IS THE BULL

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04-1.00

-0.50

0

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

CPI % change Martin Currie estimate

Page 10: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

THEN AND NOWUnwind

Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange. As at 31 October 2005.

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 to date

Banks Insurance companies

Bn ¥

Page 11: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

THEN AND NOWCorporate restructuring ended – now investing again

Capacity* ROE**

*Source: METI and KBC. As at 31 December 2005. **Source Daiwa. As at 31 December 2005.

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0405

Bull market

Denial

Correction

Growth

Page 12: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

THEN AND NOWTightening labour market

Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. As at 30 November 2005.

RISING IN

COMES

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Mar-

88

Mar-

89

Mar-

90

Mar-

91

Mar-

92

Mar-

93

Mar-

94

Mar-

95

Mar-

96

Mar-

97

Mar-

98

Mar-

99

Mar-

00

Mar-

01

Mar-

02

Mar-

03

Mar-

04

Mar-

05

Job offers:applicants

Page 13: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

OUTLOOK

Economy

Consumption

Capex

Corporate change

Financial system

Supply and demand

Reform

Page 14: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

WHY MARTIN CURRIE FOR JAPAN?

Page 15: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

JAPAN INVESTMENT TEAM

Keith Donaldson:Director26 years’ investment experience17 years’ experience of Japan

John Millar:Director11 years’ experience of Japan

Michael Thomas:Director, team leader30 years’ experience of Japan 16 years at Martin Currie

Michael McNaught-Davis: Director17 years’ experience of Japan

John-Paul Temperley:Director, Japanese linguist8 years’ experience of Japan

Kevin Troup:Director10 years’ experience of Japan

Katy Marchbank-Smith:Investment analyst3 years’ experience of Japan

Eri McKenna:Japan investment research co-ordinatorJapanese national

As at 31 December 2005.

Page 16: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

Proven and experienced team

Independence of mind

Dynamic decision-making

Collaboration

Size and location advantage

Big enough to get quality service

Investment team in one location

Ideal time zone – reflect on Tokyo, react to Wall Street

Page 17: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

INVESTMENT UNIVERSE

Filter on:Liquidity (>$2m of average daily turnover)

Market cap >$300m

Filter on:Relevance to top-down analysis

Select for portfolios on:Fundamental analysisCompany meetingsTeam discussionValuation screensTechnical analysis

Topix 33 sectors1,643 stocks

Other2,057 stocks

Total3,700 stocks

Japan equity universe

700 stocks

200 to300 stocks

65-75 stocks

Research universe

Research focusJapan core

Japan Alpha

30-40 stocks

Page 18: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

INVESTMENT PROCESS

Top-down

Macro analysis

Market structure

Regulatory environment

Looking for top line growth

Bottom-upProspects for top line growth

Competitive advantage

Attractive stage in margin cycle

Focused management

Financial strength

Valuation

Technical overlay

Supply/demand

Entry/exit points

Page 19: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE RECORD Martin Currie Japan Fund

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Source: Lipper Hindsight. Bid-bid basis with gross income reinvested over calendar years to 31 December 2005 (£). Net of fees performance has been grossed up internally using a fee rate of 1.25% to 31 May 2002 and 1.50% going forwards. *From 14 September 1989.

+0.2

+21.3

+1.6

+11.8

+5.9

+0.5

+7.9

+16.4

+20.4

+4.7+7.1 +6.5 +6.2

+0.9

-1.7-4.2

+3.3

1989* 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Martin Currie Japan Fund – Out-performance versus the Topix

Page 20: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

SUMMARY

The bear market is over

The economic backdrop is positive

We have an experienced and well resources team

We have a proven, tried and tested investment process

Page 21: WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Source: Datastream. As at 31 December 2005. MSCI Japan MSCI World 858687888990919293949596979899000102030405

REGULATORY INFORMATION

Martin Currie Investment Management Limited (MCIM) has issued and approved this presentation in its capacity as investment adviser. MCIM is referred to throughout as ‘Martin Currie’. MCIM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the Investment Management Association. Registered in Scotland (no 66107), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES.

The presentation may not be distributed to third parties and is intended only for the attendee. The presentation does not form the basis of, nor should it be relied upon in connection with, any subsequent contract or agreement. It does not constitute, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or otherwise acquire shares in any of the products mentioned.

The information contained in this presenter has been compiled with considerable care to ensure its accuracy. But no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made to its accuracy or completeness. Martin Currie has procured any research or analysis contained in this presentation for its own use. It is provided to you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not a guide to future returns. Markets and currency movements may cause the value of investments and income from them to fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your investments. There can be no assurance that you will receive comparable performance returns, or that investments will reflect the performance of the stock examples, contained in this presenter. Movements in foreign exchange rates may have a separate effect, unfavourable as well as favourable, on the gain or loss otherwise experienced on an investment.

Funds which invest in one country carry a higher degree of risk than those with portfolios diversified across a number of markets.

Investment in the securities of smaller and unquoted companies can involve greater risk than is customarily associated with investment in larger, more established, companies. In particular, smaller companies often have limited product lines, markets or financial resources and their management may be dependent on a smaller number of key individuals. In addition, the market for stock in smaller companies is often less liquid than that for stock in larger companies, bringing with it potential difficulties in acquiring, valuing and disposing of such stock. Proper information for determining their value, or the risks to which they are exposed, may not be available.

Investment in derivative instruments, including futures, options or contracts for differences, carries a high risk of loss, the markets in these investments being very volatile. A relatively small adverse market movement may result not only in the loss of the original investment but also in unquantifiable further loss exceeding any margin deposited. Warrants often involve a high degree of gearing so that a relatively small movement in the price of the security to which the warrant relates may result in a disproportionately large movement, unfavourable as well as favourable, in the price of the warrant.