why (not) to fear the impending robot revolution
TRANSCRIPT
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Why (Not) to Fear the ImpendingRobot RevolutionNick Morozovsky, PhDCo-Founder, Accel Robotics
@DrNickMoFebruary 7, 2017
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Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
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Outline
• History
• State of the Art
• Future
• Conclusions
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Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Rossum’s Universal Robots - 1921
• “Robot” from Czech rabota, meaning “forced labor”
3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R.U.R.
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Science fiction and pop culture have rapidly outpaced actual development
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Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
History
• Meanwhile, back at the lab…
• Repetitive work in a static environment
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Leg Lab
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Challenges in Robotics
MobilityPerception
Manipulation
“Go get me a beer from the fridge”
Stairs
Doors
Sand, eggs, clothes
Unstructuredterrain
Where tograsp object
LocalizationMapping
Identification
6Deep Learning
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Deformable Objects are Hard (…Soft)
Abbeel Lab, UC Berkeley, 2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKUaVzf3Oqw
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Walking is Hard
IEEE Spectrum 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Robotics Landscape
Cost ($)
Func
tiona
lity
Toys
Service
102 106103 104
Cleaners
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MedicalManufacturing
Military
Consumer Commercial Industrial
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Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Drones
• Who wouldn’t want a drone always following you around?
Chris Anderson, 2015
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Zano
Airdog
Lily
Robot Dragonfly
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
• Caveat emptor
• Pet peeve: fake robot videos
AidoBuddyAlpha2 Jibo
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
Alpha2
2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/alpha-2-the-first-humanoid-robot-for-the-family-social#/
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
Buddy
2015 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/buddy-your-family-s-companion-robot-family-social#/
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
Aido
2016 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/aido-next-gen-home-robot--2#/
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
Jibo
2014 https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/jibo-the-world-s-first-social-robot-for-the-home#/
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Crowdfunded Social Robots
Jibo
2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKhVCRbRUS0
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Consumer Robots are Shit
• Insane cost sensitivity
• Slow manufacturing cycles
• Obsolete before it hits store shelves
• Incredibly limited functionality vs. incredibly high expectations
• No killer app
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
State of the Art Commercial Robots – Robot-as-a-Service
• Robots providing consumer-facing services in commercial spaces
• Store greeter
• Telepresence
• Product finder
• Security patrol
• Room service deliveryPepper
SoftBank RoboticsBeam
Suitable Technologiesnavii
Fellow RobotsK5
KnightscopeRelay
Savioke
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
FutureSelf-Driving Cars
• Tens of thousands of lives saved
• Millions of jobs lost
• Significant contraction in automotive and related markets (dealers, service, road construction, parking, insurance, etc.)
• Energy, time, and space savings
• Good-bye traffic and parking
• No organ donors (just 3D print them!)19
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
FutureCareer Advice (for Humans)
• Avoid repetitive work
• Composing pop music, writing sitcoms, diagnosing patients, legal discovery
• Oldest profession
• Work with robots/AI, not against
• Stick to high-mix physical labor
• Luxury, artisanal goods
• Deformable objects (clothes, cheese making)
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schoolhouseartisancheese.com
Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Conclusions
• Rossum’s Universal Robots ends in a robot revolution which kills all humans (save one)
• Life doesn’t have to imitate art
• What happens when robots and AI can perform any task better, safer, and cheaper than a human?
• Humans have survived (and prospered?) through the agricultural, industrial, and communications revolutions
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Why (Not) to Fear the Impending Robot Revolution - Nick Morozovsky - Feb 7, 2017 -
Conclusions Nick’s Rules of Robotics
1. Never disassemble a working robot.
2. If it works the first time, you’re testing it wrong.
3. When in doubt, lubricate.
4. Never underestimate the estimation problem.
5. If specs for a part are listed differently in two places, they’re both wrong.
6. Glue, tape, and zip-ties are not engineering solutions (though they might work in a pinch).
7. Do not leave lithium polymer batteries charging unattended.
8. Always have a complete CAD model, including screws and fasteners, before constructing your robot.
9. Avoid using slip rings if at all possible.
10.Clamping collars are always better than set screws. If you have to use set screws (e.g. for cost reasons), use a driving flat and an appropriate thread-locking agent.
11.Always check polarity before plugging a component into a power source.
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