Why Science Matters to Diplomacy

Robin Grimes27 August 2015

Global Challenges: diplomatic opportunities

Energy demand

Urbanisation Alleviating poverty

Water demand

Climate change

Population Food security

Humandisease

Counter-terrorism

Biodiversity

Non-infectious diseases

Animal disease

International migration

Ageing population

Nuclear proliferation

Foreign policy needs to be informed by the best available science 

• Strengthen FCO engagement with science networks• Represent FCO interests in Whitehall & wider science networks

Science networks

• With BIS and Prosperity Directorate, provide thought leadership and senior representation for the co‐owned HMG S&I Network  

FCO‐BIS S&I Network leadership

• Help FCO policy leads to use scientific evidence to strengthen foreign policy development and delivery in line with Diplomatic Excellence initiativeScience evidence

90 people, 28 countries and territories, 46 cities

Europe (including Russia)  Czech Republic (Prague), Denmark (Copenhagen), France (Paris), Germany (Berlin, Munich), Italy (Milan, Rome), Netherlands (The Hague), Poland (Warsaw), Russia (Moscow), Spain (Madrid), Sweden (Stockholm), Switzerland (Berne) Turkey (Istanbul)  Asia Pacific  Australia (Melbourne), China (Beijing, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai), Japan (Osaka, Tokyo), Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur), New Zealand (Wellington), Singapore, South Korea (Seoul), Taiwan (Taipei).  Middle East, Africa and South Asia  India (Bangalore, Mumbai, New Delhi), Israel (Tel Aviv), Nigeria (Abuja), Qatar (Doha), South Africa (Pretoria, Cape Town). Americas  Brazil (Brasilia, Sao Paulo), Canada (Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa), USA (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington).

(&  joined up working with Prosperity officers (including new staff  working on Newton Fund): eg Indonesia,  Vietnam, Thailand,  Philippines:  funded separately but as SIN for most practical purposes, including access to project funds and  SIN knowledge base)

UNCLASSIFIED

The Science and Innovation Network (SIN) 

Egypt China

ColombiaChile South Africa

MexicoBrazil India

SE Asia:IndonesiaMalaysiaThailandPhilippines Vietnam

TurkeyKazakhstan

Science and innovation partnerships that promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries.

People:            fellowships, mobility schemes and joint centers Programmes:  research collaborations on development topics Translation:     innovative solutions on development topics 

£350m over five years + partner funding.

What is Science Diplomacy?Science in diplomacy Science informs policy objectives by providing robust evidence or access to people and networks – science supports our diplomatic competencies Diplomacy for science Helping scientists to achieve their goals – diplomacy supports science 

Science for diplomacy Science as a beach‐head in politically difficult circumstances, leading to improved political, social and economic links – science builds diplomatic relations 

The Policy-Science NexusThee categories associated with: policy makers, policy implementers and the public.  One enabling cross cutting theme: understanding the effectiveness of activities.

• Science and Parliament• Select committees, POST, UK Academies• The Parliamentary and Science committee• Foundation for Science and Technology

• Science Across Government• GO Science & the CSA network, GSIF, SAGE• SIN, UKTI• Innovate UK, RCUK

• Science & the Media• Science Media Centre, Science journalists, Universities

• Public Understanding

Scientific concernsFossil fuel, engineering and geological:

• Loss of integrity in aquifer zone

• Seismic events• Methane release

Understanding public attitudesAnti-fracking movements are not solely concerned with emissions or the risks of pollution or seismicity:Opposition to continued exploitation of fossil fuels in general

• Opposition to the oil and gas industry• ‘Not in my back yard’

FrackingCommunication:

A network of Chief Scientific Advisers

Stephen Aldridge (interim)

CLG

Prof Chris Whitty

DFID

Prof DameSally Davies

DH

Prof Robin Grimes FCO

Prof John Perkins

BIS

Prof JohnLoughead

DECC

Prof Rod Smith DfT

Dr Bill Gunnyeon

DWP

Prof Bernard Silverman

Home Office

Prof Julie WilliamsWales

Prof Peter Freer Smith Forestry C.

Rebecca Endean

MoJ

Dr David Bench HSE

Prof Julia Slingo Met Office

Dr James Richardson

HMT

Prof Vernon GibsonMOD

Prof Ian Boyd Defra

Prof Bernadette Hannigan (interim) Northern Ireland

Prof Muffy Calder

Scotland

Prof Nick JenningsNational Security

Prof Sir Mark WalportGCSA

Through the CSA, the FCO also engages in Whitehall science fora and agenda setting  

NSC(O)S&T: chaired by GCSA, considers S&T national security issues.

GSIF: Global Science & Innovation Forum, a broad cross‐sector science expert group that reviews UKs international engagement.

CSAC: Chief Scientific Advisors Committee, cross‐departmental group on foresight.

RHEG: Risk and Horizon Scanning Expert Group, identifies emerging natural hazard risks.

SAGE: provides scientific advice to PM, COBRA etc.. in emergencies.

FCO / BIS: SIN (Science and Innovation Network): facilitates international collaborations, supports CSAs

There are different facets to disaster risk responsePrevent Mitigate

Clear-UpManage

The National Risk Register

How the UK prepares for the common consequences of risks

Assess the risks

Build capability to deal with 

those common consequences

Pull out the common 

consequences of risks

2014 NATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT (NRA)

Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat

2014 NATIONAL RESILIENCE PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS (NRPAs)

Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat

NATIONAL RESILIENCE CAPABILITY PROGRAMME (NRCP)

Cabinet Office

Civil Contingencies Secretariat

6 month Forward Look: Provides departments with an indication of the

relative likelihood and impact of unfolding or emerging civil domestic risks. It is

produced every quarter.

Mass Fatalities

Mass Casualties

Biological Release

Radiological Release

Chemical Release

Debris / Rubble

People requiring evacuation & shelter

Influx of British Nationals

Disrupt. to Water Supply

Disrupt. to Transport

Disrupt. to Oil & Fuel

Disrupt. to Gas

Disrupt. to Electricity

Disrupt. to Telecoms

Disrupt. to Health

Disrupt. to Financial Services

Many risks have common consequences:This determines the National Planning AssumptionsDifferent  departments are involved in  both mitigation & response

Major industrial accident

Terrorist attack

Interpretation, Risk Analysis & Communication

Our ability to respond to disaster risk relies on a scientific value chain  

Forecast model outputForecasts and

advice

Observations

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

How science supports the UK’s emergency response

Calling COBR

SAGE – Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies:

“Responsible for coordinating and peer reviewing, as far as possible, scientific and technical advice to inform decision-making”.

Chaired by the GCSA, reports to COBRA (who take the decision…), includes CSAs, sector experts, independent scientists

Called when there is an emergency that requires science advice.

Practice, practice, practice…where are the holes?

The Role of CSAs in Emergencies

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmselect/cmsctech/498/49809.htm

SAGE in action

2009 – Pandemic Flu2010 – Volcanic Ash2011 – Fukushima2014 – UK Floods

2014 – Ebola

Science in Humanitarian Emergencies and DisastersHow science supports the UK’s emergency preparedness and

response overseas

Science in Humanitarian Emergencies and Disasters Project

Anticipating natural hazards•••• Established a Risk and Horizon Scanning Expert Group (RHEG) to provide advice to DFID, FCO and MOD on what natural hazard events may occur over the next 6 months that have the potential to cause disasters.

Responding to disasters•••• Provision of rapid scientific and technical advice in response to natural disasters. Option to established a Humanitarian Emergency Expert Group (HEEG), which is similar to SAGE

• Acts as a coordinating body and a “one‐stop‐shop” for S&T advice in emergencies when COBR notcalled.

• Coordinates the provision of timely S&T advice to support the UK Government response to overseas emergencies.

• Facilitate interaction between policy makers / crisis management teams and scientists.

• Multi‐disciplinary and multi‐hazard approach.

Customers

S&T Providers

AcademiaPublic Sector 

Science Agencies

Industry

Science in Humanitarian Emergencies and Disasters Secretariat 

Responding to international emergencies

23 Presentation title - edit in Header and Footer

Typhoon Haiyan

Typhoon Haiyan – the SHED response

8 November10:00GMT – request from DFID for S&T advice to support the UK’s response.

10:15 – SHED Secretariat contacts the International Landslide Centre and UK Met Office.

10:32 – Initial advice on landslide risk provided.

13:39 – Detailed weather forecast provided by UK Met Office.

9-18 November• Brought together a wide range of

experts from Met Office, BGS, PHE & the International Landslide Centre

• Coordinated the provision of rapid coherent advice data & information on:

•••• Daily forecast information including risk of low cloud and the expected sea state, which could hamper aid operations.•••• Expected frequency of further rainfall and thunderstorms.•••• Risk of flash floods.•••• Areas most at risk of landslides.•••• Health impacts.

Presentation title - edit in Header and Footer

Haiyan ‐What impact did SHED have?

• Advice assisted DFID and their partners in-country with the response.

• Helped inform where to send two British Royal Navy ships

• Advice on health impacts made available open access to everyone the Philippines through Evidence Aid

• Review found that the “SHED process did achieve its aim in streamlining and synergising the UK’s scientific capacity to advise key actors in disaster anticipation and mitigation.”

Summary: A wild guess at the future• A shift in where research is carried out.

• Different paradigms to enable more effective transition of science (from bench to bedside).

• More diverse teams of researchers – an even more itinerant population.

• The means of communicating will change but conferences will remain (but make greater use of things like Skype).

• Markets will have emerged and transformed.

• People’s aspirations will be greater.

• Research drivers will remain focused on ensuring enduring economic viability: environmental concerns, population changes, health provision, education, security, access to energy, food & resources, transport & communications       ….but priorities can change quickly.

To be successful we must ensure access to:• Smarter collaborations that align with strategic priorities and where there is benefit for business and enable more effective translation of ideas to products.

• Best with best?  Extended peer networks and secondments.

• More people spending time between our two countries as a normal expectation for their education including cross‐border degree and industrial experience opportunities.

• Learn from each other how to develop models of long‐standing research collaboration investment (foresight) but using an appropriate cultural approach.

• Focus discussions with an eye to ensure the UK and Brazil remain research partners of choice in a raft of areas not just now but in 30 years.

Science Bob Cartoons by Frank Kilgourfin