Why There are no Technological ImperativesTechnologies are malleable There is not a straight line from invention to ultimate use. Foresight is limited by both undue optimism and insufficient visionTechnologies are socially constructed. The first uses are usually those that change everyday life the least.Technologies are path dependent: Their origins shape their futures.

Technologies are Malleable

And dead ends are commonSouth Jersey Magazine, Winter 2002, p. 4

Jinnosuke Kajino planned a bicycle railroad. This plan did not materialize. This railroad bicycle does not understand even structure. This plan isdated Aug-ust, 1889. http://www.eva.hi-ho.ne.jp/ootsu/ant5.html - sept. 15, 2002Smithville Problems: Sudden bumps.Only one mon- orail led to con- frontations when riders headed in different directions!Its not just great minds that think alike

Foresight is limited by undue optimismNY Mayor Wagner and friend talking with Mrs. Ladybird Johnson on picturephone, 1964 Newsday http://future.newsday.com/5/fbak0507.htm, Sept. 15, 2002Electro & Sparko: GE Exhibit, NY Worlds Fair, 1939 http://www.moah.org/exhibits/archives/robots.html, Sept. 15, 2002

Or too little vision: The future of e-mail, 1983Atlanta Journal Constitution, Dec. 18, 1983

Technologies often move from business to the homehttp://members.aol.com/allenamet/PhonoBooks.html 9/15/02Edison with wax cyllinder photograph. The phonograph was first commercialized in 1888 by Jesse Lippincott, who thought it would replace stenographers and notepads. It didnt. http://www.acmi.net.au/AIC/EDISON_HIST_PHONO.html 9 15 02Later, people paid to hear phonograph recordings in public

Technologies are Path DependentARPA was initially funded to have military uses, which meant it was produced to be durable, robust, and hard-to-kill When libertarian hackers use that kind of technology, they are able to foster very different values (decentralization, free speech, easy mobilization of collective action, not to mention less noble forms of hacking) based on:Open architectureDecentralized computingRedundant functions The team that deployed ARPAnet in 1969, including John Postel, David Crocker and Vincent Cerf. Arpanet Map from 1973

How do Technologies Spread? Prices go down as demand growsPeople have varying reservation prices for purchaseShape of diffusion curve reflects

1) the relationship between price and volume sold (i.e. how quickly price declines as market grows) and 2) the distribution of reservation prices (price elasticity)Reservation prices differ from group to group

Household Penetration , Selected Media (from Schement 1999)

What is Distinctive about Information Technologies? Markets are NetworksINFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES ARE NETWORK GOODS:Goods or services for which each users utility is a positive function of the number of other users.U.S. biotechnology industry network c. 2000, Walter Powell

Examples of Network Goods Telephone Napster/KaZaa/etc., E-Bay Adobe Acrobat

Household Penetration , Selected Media (from Schement 1999)Television and radiosingle purchasecommon culturerapid riseTelephone and cable subscription private use slower increase