wichita 2007 review 2008 forecast janet harrah, director center for economic development and...
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![Page 1: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Wichita 2007 Review2008 Forecast
Janet Harrah, directorCenter for Economic Development and
Business Research, WSUOctober 2007
![Page 2: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Wichita MSA EmploymentWichita MSA Employmentby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006
Service Sectors 42%
Production Sectors 27%
Trade, Transportation &
Utilities 17%
Government 14%
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
![Page 3: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Wichita MSA EarningsWichita MSA Earningsby Industry Sector, 2006by Industry Sector, 2006
Service Sectors 34%
Trade, Transportation
and Utilities 14%
Government 12%
Production Sectors 40%
Data Source: Kansas Department of Labor
![Page 4: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Total Total Employment GrowthEmployment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA
(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 5: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
ProductionProduction Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 6: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
TradeTrade Employment Growth Employment GrowthU.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA
(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 7: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
ServiceService Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 8: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
GovernmentGovernment Employment Employment GrowthGrowth
U.S. & Wichita MSAU.S. & Wichita MSA(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)(Year-over-Year Quarterly Percentage Change)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001
Q1
2001
Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
United States
Wichita MSA
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 9: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
WSU Consumer WSU Consumer Expectations IndexExpectations Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 10: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
WSU Current Conditions WSU Current Conditions IndexIndex
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 11: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
WSU Leading Economic WSU Leading Economic Indicators IndexIndicators Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 12: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Total All JobsTotal All JobsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
230,000240,000
250,000260,000
270,000280,000
290,000300,000
310,000320,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 13: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Production SectorProduction SectorWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
50,00055,000
60,00065,000
70,00075,000
80,00085,000
90,00095,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 14: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Natural Resources, Mining & Natural Resources, Mining & ConstructionConstruction
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
10,00011,000
12,00013,000
14,00015,000
16,00017,000
18,00019,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 15: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
ManufacturingManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 16: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Durable Goods ManufacturingDurable Goods ManufacturingWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 17: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Non-Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods ManufacturingManufacturing
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 18: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Trade, Transportation & Trade, Transportation & UtilitiesUtilities
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500
47,500
52,500
57,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 19: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Wholesale TradeWholesale TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 20: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Retail TradeRetail TradeWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
31,500
32,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 21: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Taxable Retail SalesTaxable Retail Sales(billions $)(billions $)
$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00
$10.0019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 22: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Inflation AdjustedInflation AdjustedTaxable Retail Sales (billions Taxable Retail Sales (billions
$)$)
$3.50$3.60$3.70$3.80$3.90$4.00$4.10$4.20$4.30$4.40$4.50
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: KS Department of Revenue; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 23: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Transportation & UtilitiesTransportation & UtilitiesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
6,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,4008,600
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 24: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Service SectorsService SectorsWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 25: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Information ServicesInformation ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 26: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Financial ServicesFinancial ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 27: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Professional & Business Professional & Business ServicesServices
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
16,500
18,500
20,500
22,500
24,500
26,500
28,500
30,500
32,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 28: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Education & Health Care Education & Health Care ServicesServices
Wage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
25,00027,00029,00031,00033,00035,00037,00039,00041,00043,00045,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 29: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Leisure & Hospitality ServicesLeisure & Hospitality ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
22,000
23,000
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
28,000
29,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 30: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Other ServicesOther ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University
![Page 31: Wichita 2007 Review 2008 Forecast Janet Harrah, director Center for Economic Development and Business Research, WSU October 2007](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fad7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Government ServicesGovernment ServicesWage & Salary EmploymentWage & Salary Employment
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,00019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Actual Estimate Forecast
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Estimate/Forecast CEDBR, Wichita State University