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Wicked Problems Analysis of State
Failure and Sustainability Policy:
A Synergy Analysis between Fragile
State Index and Sustainable Society
Index Frameworks
Jari Kaivo-oja, Jarmo Vehmas, Jyrki LuukkanenFinland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics
Synergy method
Synergy determined by xy
Negative synergy = trade-off
16.6.2015 2
dcxybyaxz A
B
x0
y0
x
y
x1
y1
x
y
z0
yxyxxyyxcybxaz 00
A
B
x0
y0
x
y
x1
y1
x
y
z0
Synergy method
• Zero synergy = de-linking
• Synergy measure:
• Graphical measure
• Potential synergy – not
indicating causal relations
3
AB
x0
y0
x
y
x1
= y1
x
y =0
z0
y
xs
A
F E
D C
B
Synergy method
Synergy between
three trends
4
AA’
H
G
F
E
D
C
BB’
F’
C’
E’
H’
G’
D’
y
x
z
y
x
z
Example study of synergy
Example:
GDP and CO2
WEAK SYNERGY
Longer time frame:
5
GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (EU-15, 1995
and 2005)
95
100
105
95 105 115 125
GDP per capita
CO
2 p
er
ca
pit
a
1995
2005
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Syn
erg
y fa
cto
r
Synergy trend between CO2 and GDP from 1960 to 2007
Example study of synergy
UK: GDP and CO2
Trade-off
De-linking
6
GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (UK, 1995 and
2005)
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
90 100 110 120 130
GDP per capitaC
O2 p
er
cap
ita
1995
2005
Synergy trend between CO2 per capita and GDP per capita
in UK from 1995 to 2005
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
years
Syn
erg
y f
acto
r
Example study of synergy
Greece: GDP and CO2
Strong synergy
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GDP per capita and CO2 per capita (Greece, 1995 and
2005)
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
GDP per capita
CO
2 p
er
cap
ita
2005
1995
Synergy trend between GDP and CO2 in Greece from 1995
to 2005
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
time
Syn
erg
y f
acto
r
Analysis of synergy between
Fragile Sate Index and
Sustainable Society Index
• The Fragile States Index is an annual ranking of
178 nations based on their levels of stability and the
pressures they face
– highlights global political, economic and social
pressures experienced by states
– data from three primary sources is triangulated
– twelve key political, social and economic indicators
and over 100 sub-indicators
– Fund for Peace
Sustainable Society Index
SSI
Synergy between Faragile State Index
and Sustainable Society Index
• Fragile State Index (FSI) converted to
Rubust State Index (RSI) using
RSI = 140 – FSI
• Increase in RSI is positive
• Increase in SSI is positive
Synergy between
Fragile State
Index (RSI)
Sustainable Society Index
Human Welbeing
Environmental Welbeing
Economic Welbeing
Index used was ”inverse” of FSI
Robust State Index
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14
Vietnam
HW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam EnW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam EcW-RSI-Synergy-Vietnam
Case study of Vietnam
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14
Indonesia
HW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia EnW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia EcW-RSI-Synergy-Indonesia
Case study of Indonesia
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14
India
HW-RSI-Synergy-India EnW-RSI-Synergy-India EcW-RSI-Synergy-India
Case study of India
Case study of India
-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00
Average India
EcW-RSI-Synergy-India
EnW-RSI-Synergy-India
HW-RSI-Synergy-India
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
2006-08 2008-10 2010-12 2012-14
Russia
HW-RSI-Synergy-Russia EnW-RSI-Synergy-Russia EcW-RSI-Synergy-Russia
Case study of Russia
Conclusions
• The new quantitative synergy assessment
method provides possibilities to analyse
synergies, trade-offs and de-linking between
trends
• Provides a tool to analyse trends of different
dimensions of sustainable development
• Provides a basis for comparative policy
analysis
• Provides a measure of potential synergy –
does not indicate causality
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Conclusions cont.
• Synergy method can be utilized for assessing
wicked problems if suitable data is available
• Indicator data related to wicked, complex and
interlinked issues, such as sustainability, is
available, but often it is not possible to have long
time series data
• The properties of data may be problematic: data
should be ”cumulative” - not annual change
data
Thank you
Jyrki Luukkanen
Finland Futures Research Centre
University of [email protected]
http://ffrc.utu.fi/en/
www.mekong.fi
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