wide area persistent messaging technical decision support

© Crown Copyright 2016 1

Wide Area Persistent Messaging

Technical Decision Support Wargame

Michael Lee

Connections UK 7th September 2016


Defence has identified the need for a Wide Area Persistent Messaging

(WAPM) capability.

Niteworks Task: Identify and visualise current and future technology solutions

pertinent to WAPM, and make recommendations regarding a future WAPM

capability, giving consideration to;

Audiences

Environments

Channels

Platforms

Early conclusion – Solution set of complementary technologies

WAPM Project


Identify the

technology

Analysis of sets

Group into sets

Map Solution

Space

Gather Candidates

Generate Solution

Sets

Contextualised

Vignettes

MCDA

Industry

Pro

jec

t D

eve

lop

me

nt

WAPM Project – Technical model


Identify the

technology

Analysis of sets

Group into sets

Map Solution

Space

Gather Candidates

Generate Solution

Sets

Contextualised

Vignettes

MCDA

Industry

Pro

jec

t D

eve

lop

me

nt

WARGAME

WAPM Project – Technical model


Primary

The generation of coherent and complementary solution sets to be taken

forwards to MCDA

Secondary

Visualisation of capabilities provided by different combinations of technology

options and platforms

Inform the generation of criteria to be used in MCDA

Wargame Objectives


Mapping MappingMapping

Cell 1 Cell 2 Cell 3

Green

Cell

Red CellMCDA

Scribe

ScribeScribeScribe

Mapping

Game

productSlid

es

Room Layout


Technology

Equipment capable of sending a message

e.g. Radio in a Box

Platform

A host onto which the technology can be mounted, usually a military vehicle

e.g. High Altitude UAV

Capability

A technology mounted on a platform

Channel

The method by which a target audience receives a message

i.e. Radio, TV, Audio, Hardcopy, Objects, Billboard, Projection, Internet

and Cellular

Lexicon


Create Capability Sets

Scenario 1

Refine Sets

Scenario 2

Refine Sets

Scenario 3

Wargame Structure



Scenario 1

Refine Sets

Scenario 2

Refine Sets

Scenario 3

Wargame Structure


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

ORBAT platforms (Scenario specific)

Creating Capabilities


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Creating Sets


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Creating Sets

Blue Cell 1

choose one

card from each

category

Blue

Cell 1


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Creating Sets

Blue Cell 2

choose one

card from those

remaining in

each category

Blue

Cell 1

Blue

Cell 2


Generate

Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Network

Creating Sets

Blue

Cell 1

Blue

Cell 2

Blue Cell 2

choose one

card from those

remaining in

each category


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Creating Sets

Blue Cell 3

choose one

card from those

remaining in

each category

Blue

Cell 1

Blue

Cell 2

Blue

Cell 3


Suggestions:

Information on card

Potential Capabilities

Pre-conceived ideas

Without scenario details – flexible solutions

Selection Criteria



Scenario 1

Refine Sets

Scenario 2

Refine Sets

Scenario 3

Wargame Structure


Briefing Pack

Overview

OV1a

Human terrain analysis

Scenario Objectives

Information Environment

Existing Infrastructure

Scenario Specific Rules – Including ORBAT platforms available

Mapping including human terrain density overlays

Scenario Products


DETER

Go

v. F

orc

es

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

POSITIVENEGATIVE Behaviour

HARASSLeaders

Conscript

Soldiers

Hard

Line

Soldiers

Rebels

Civilians

Civilians

Rebels

Numbers represent score required to

achieve desired outcome against each

target audience

INFORM

1

1

3 1

REASSURE

1

Scenario Products - Objectives


Breakdown

• Common language between all communities

• Higher literacy rates amongst Hard Line Government forces, although all

demographics have a literacy rate of at least 50%.

• TV Ownership focused around coastal areas.

• Cellular technology is commonplace amongst Government forces. The better paid

Hard Line Soldiers and Leaders mostly have personal phones, where as the

Conscripted Soldiers will often share cellular devices which they use to communicate

with their families.

70%

26%

2%

76%

28%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Literacy Internet users Wired Broadband Cellular Subscriptions TV Ownership Radio Ownership

INTERVENTION

Scenario Products - Environment


Scenario Products - Mapping


Scenario Products - Overlays


Scenario Products - Templates


Action – Blue Cells

Reaction – Red/Green Cells

Critique – Blue Cells

Constructive critique between cells

‘Frictions’ - challenge assumptions

Outcomes – Excon

Analytical determinations

Key factors arising – Blue Cells

Open discussion

Gameplay


For each message Blue Cell Players Specify:

Target audience (TA)

Capability (technology plus platform) used to transmit message

% Population reached

Message Effectiveness:

Effect on TA = (%Pop reached) x (Platform Persistence) x (Receptivity)

(%Pop reached) is determined from the mapping

(Platform Persistence) is determined by the choice of platform

(Receptivity) is determined by the scenario, channel and specified TA

Effects through different channels are cumulative, so complementary

messaging through different channels will result in a greater effect on the TA.

Gameplay


Gameplay – Analytical Model



Scenario 1

Refine Sets

Scenario 2

Refine Sets

Scenario 3

Wargame Structure


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Blue

Cell 3

Blue

Cell 2

Blue

Cell 1

Refine Sets


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Blue

Cell 3

Blue

Cell 2

Blue

Cell 1

Refine Sets

Blue Cell 1 allowed to swap

out one card each with Blue

Cell 2, Blue Cell 3 and

reserve card deck


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Blue

Cell 3

Blue

Cell 2

Blue

Cell 1

Refine Sets


out one card each with Blue

Cell 3 and reserve card deck


Platform Major

Platform Minor

Audio/Visual

Broadcast

Generate

Network

Blue

Cell 3

Blue

Cell 2

Blue

Cell 1

Refine Sets


out one card with reserve

card pile


Refine Sets

Why refine sets process?

Objective. The generation of coherent and complementary solution sets to

be taken forwards to MCDA

Convergence. If all players had access to all capabilities convergence

would probably occur. We want you to think about generating a range of

innovative complementary capability sets.

‘Pass the parcel’ If different cells picked first in different rounds, ‘favoured’

capabilities would be passed around the groups. This wouldn’t be a

refinement process.


Projection

mapping

EUD

purchase

and

distribute

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

Air

Platform

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Platform

Technology

Capability

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Platform

Capability

Technology

Capability

Results – Blue Cell 1


Projection

mapping

EUD

purchase

and

distribute

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Platform

Technology

Capability

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Platform

Capability

Technology

Capability

Projection

mapping

Air leaflet

bomb

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Air

Platform

Air

Platform

Results – Blue Cell 1&2


Projection

mapping

EUD

purchase

and

distribute

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Platform

Technology

Capability

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Platform

Capability

Technology

Capability

Projection

mapping

Air leaflet

bomb

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Leaflet

print and

distribute

EUD

purchase

and

distribute

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Air

Platform

Air

Platform

Air

Platform

Results – Blue Cell 1,2&3


Platform

Technology

Core

Capability

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Leaflet

print and

distribute

Air

Platform

Air

Platform

Consolidated Core


Projection

mapping

EUD

purchase

and

distribute

Air leaflet

bomb

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Maritime

Platforms

ORBAT

Air

Platforms

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Broadcast

and network

ORBAT

Land

Platforms

Public

address

Platform

Technology

Core

CapabilityLeaflet

print and

distribute

Platform

Additional

Capability

Technology

Additional

Capability

Air

Platform

Air

Platform

Consolidated Complete


Visualisation

Problem

Solutions

Stakeholder management

Engaged audience

Test incorrect assumptions

Evidence based decision making

Benefits


Lessons

All models are wrong, some are useful

No ‘black box’

Make it as simple as possible

If it doesn’t contribute to the objectives, it doesn’t make it into the game


Wide Area Persistent Messaging

Technical Decision Support Wargame

Michael Lee

Connections UK 7th September 2016

wide area persistent messaging technical decision support

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