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Joe Francois, Olga Pindyuk, Johannes Pöschl, Robert Stehrer

WIOD Conference , 26. May 2010

WIOD Data on Trade in Goods:Data Issues and Patterns of Trade in Intermediates

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Data progress

Starting point:

trade data for 39 WIOD countries at HS 6-digit level

Processing data – correspondences:

- effort to adapt HS6-BEC correspondence

- HS6 data matched with...

NACE 3-digit industry correspondence

use categories

WIOD codes

- problems with correspondences and product code orphans have been solved

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Data reporting issue

Some issues of coverage exist (CZK, DNK – 1997) but we

are in contact with the UN and the data will be available soon

Missing trade

- compare sum of HS 6-digit codes to total value reported

2007: 14%

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Missing trade 1/2

Not a minor problem: examples RUS, CAN, CHN- >40% of total export/imports for several years

- not constant over time!

Sum over all HS6 codes in percent of total trade reported

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Missing trade 2/2

Phenomenon not related to certain reporters but an

issue for a lot of countries with missing imports > 15%

(AUS, DEU, IND, JPN, KOR, MEX, NLD, …)

Problem exists at HS 6-digit level as well as the

SITC 5-digit level (for which it is mostly worse)

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How to find and adjust for missing trade?

Proportional adjustment over all products not

applicable since missing trade is most certainly related

to specific products

If a reporting country does not want the partner

breakdown to be disclosed it can report trade with a

confidential partner “Special Categories“

Countries report both at the HS 6 and 2-digit level- data reporting should be better at the aggregated HS 2-digit

level (less confidentiality issues)

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Two step approach

1. Step:i. Use trade with confidential partner “Special Categories“ for

each country at HS 6-digit level

ii. Add it to the trade with partner countries according to the difference between the sum of trade at the HS6 level and total trade reported

2. Step:- Use HS 2-digit data to adjust HS 6-digit reported trade flows

AUT

RUS

DEU

Spec.Cat.

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Open Issues

Transport costs included in imports lead to relatively higher

share of countries further away- estimation gravity equations to reduce distortion in the trade data

Re-Imports and Re-Exports (especially China‘s special

administrative regions)

Data availability Taiwan- Comext Data for EU15 available (EU27 since 1999), OECD

- Gravity Equations

Further comments / suggestions?

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Classification by end use categories

Data at HS6 level

- Correspondence to WIOD-BEC

- Correspondence to NACE 3-digit (CPA?)

What is WIOD BEC

- HS6-BEC (UN) correspondence reclassified at HS6 level

- Split into four categories: INTC, CONS, GFCF and MIX

- Should meet purpose of bringing together trade data and SUTs

Aggregation to products and end-use by country

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‘Stylized’ facts

Patterns of trade by end-use category

- Imports and exports

Trends

Specialisation structures

Two-way trade in intermediates

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Structure of imports by end use category, 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

IDN

CH

NIN

DK

OR

TU

RB

RA

ES

TM

LT

RO

MS

VN

PO

LM

EX

BG

RP

RT

CZ

EL

UX

SV

KJP

NS

WE

FIN

BE

LIT

AA

UT

ES

PD

EU

HU

NF

RA

CA

NG

BR

NL

DU

SA

LV

AL

TU

CY

PD

NK

GR

CIR

LA

US

RU

S

INTC CONS GFCF MIXED

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Structure of exports by end use category, 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RU

SID

NA

US

LU

XM

LT

BG

RL

VA

BR

AC

AN

ES

TG

RC

LT

UF

INR

OM

PO

LIN

DS

WE

US

AP

RT

BE

LC

ZE

SV

KJP

NA

UT

DE

UF

RA

ITA

NL

DS

VN

ES

PT

UR

KO

RG

BR

IRL

HU

NM

EX

DN

KC

HN

CY

P

INTC CONS GFCF MIXED

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Correlation of export and import shares

for intermediates trade, 2006

AUS

AUTBEL

BGR

BRACAN

CHN

CYP

CZEDEU

DNK

ESP

EST

FIN

FRA

GBR

GRC

HUN

IDN

IND

IRL

ITAJPN

KOR

LTU

LUX

LVA

MEX

MLT

NLD

POLPRT

ROM

RUS

SVK

SVN

SWE

TUR

USA

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Exp

ort

sh

are

.3 .4 .5 .6 .7Import share

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Revealed specialisation in intermediates trade, 2006

AUS

AUT

BGR

BRA

CAN

CHN

CYP

CZEDEU

DNKESPEST

FIN

FRAGBR

GRC

HUN

IDN

IND

IRLITA JPN

KOR

LTU

LVA

MEX

MLT

NLDPOLPRTROM

RUS

SVK

SVN

SWE

TUR

USA

-10

12

32

006

RC

A

-1 0 1 2 31996 RCA

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Changes in the shares of intermediates trade

0.400

0.420

0.440

0.460

0.480

0.500

0.520

0.540

0.560

0.580

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

DEU EXP DEU IMP JPN EXP JPN IMP USA EXP USA IMP

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Changes in the share of intermediates trade, in percentage point differences, 1996-2006

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

LT

U

ME

X

HU

N

PO

L

RO

M

SV

K

ITA

IRL

IND

DN

K

FIN

GR

C

LV

A

CA

N

IDN

KO

R

AU

S

CZ

E

NL

D

ML

T

PR

T

JP

N

DE

U

FR

A

TU

R

SV

N

AU

T

GB

R

CH

N

SW

CY

P

US

A

ES

T

BR

A

Exports Imports

• Changes driven by between or within shifts?• Cross-country differences driven by within or between industry specialisation?

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Share of intermediate imports by industry, 2006

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

W1

8

W3

0

W1

9

W3

6

W1

5

W3

3

W2

9

W3

2

W3

4

W3

5

W2

2

W3

1

W1

7

W2

4

W2

8

W2

1

W2

6

W2

5

W2

3

W3

7

W2

0

W2

7

DEU JPN USA

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Share of intermediate exports by industry, 2006

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

W3

0

W1

8

W1

5

W3

6

W1

9

W2

9

W3

3

W3

2

W3

4

W3

5

W2

2

W3

1

W2

4

W1

7

W2

1

W2

8

W2

6

W2

3

W3

7

W2

5

W2

0

W2

7

DEU JPN USA

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Structure by industry

Shares are highly correlated across countries in

general

However, significant differences when looking at

individual industries

Rather persistent over time

- Though less so for some industries

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Share of two-way trade in intermediates

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

CY

PG

BR

DE

UE

SP

FR

AN

LD

BE

LU

SA

ME

XD

NK

ES

TA

UT

CZ

EP

RT

PO

LS

WH

UN

SV

NIT

AC

AN

GR

CL

VA

KO

RT

UR

JPN

LT

US

VK

IRL

CH

NB

RA

FIN

IDN

IND

RO

BG

RA

US

LU

XR

US

ML

T

CGLI1995 CGLI2006

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Share of two-way trade in intermediates, 2006

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

CONS INTC GFCF

CGLI1995 CGLI2006

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Share of two-way trade in intermediates by industry, 2006

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

W1

5

W1

7

W1

8

W1

9

W2

0

W2

1

W2

2

W2

3

W2

4

W2

5

W2

6

W2

7

W2

8

W2

9

W3

0

W3

1

W3

2

W3

3

W3

4

W3

5

W3

6

W3

7

1995 2005

Note: Mean over countries

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Comparisons to SIOT data

Eurostat symmetric IO tables with import tables

Note: pxp tables

Shares of imported intermediates in total imports

Comparison to trade data

- Strong positive correlation

- Hides significant differences in some cases

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Comparisons to SIOT data

AUTBELDEU

DNK

ESP

EST

FIN

FRA

GRC

HUN

IRL

ITA

LTU

LVANLD

POL

PRT

ROM

SVK

SVN

SWE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Shar

es fr

om IO

dat

a

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Shares from trade data

NACE 34 - Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers

2000

AUTDEU

DNK

ESP

EST

FIN

FRA

GRC

HUN

ITANLD

PRT

ROM

SVN

SWE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Shar

es fr

om IO

dat

a

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Shares from trade data

2005

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Comparisons to SIOT data

NACE 35 - Other transport equipment 2000 2005

AUT

BEL

DEU

DNK

ESP

EST

FIN

FRA

GRC

HUNIRL

ITA

LTU

LVA

NLD

POL

PRT

ROMSVKSVN

SWE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Shar

es fr

om IO

dat

a

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Shares from trade data

AUT

DEUDNK

ESP

EST FIN

FRA

GRC

HUNITA

NLDPRT

ROMSVN

SWE

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Shar

es fr

om IO

dat

a

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Shares from trade data

Note: Mixed category not yet considered

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Comparisons to SIOT data

Differences

- More industry specific than country specific

- Not always consistent over time

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Summary

Data issues and next steps

(Re-)classification of end-use categories

Stylized facts on trade in intermediates

- Intermediates: Broad category

- More distinct patterns for more detailed product groups (e.g. parts and components) and industry level

Consistency with information from import tables

- Country/industry specific deviations are hard to assess

- Compare with import use tables (however hardly accessible)